Strategic Vision: Casey 52% Santorum 38%; Swann 44% Rendell 44%

Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18+, and conducted March 10-12, 2006. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 35%
Disapprove 58%
Undecided 7%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 34%
Disapprove 59%
Undecided 7%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq?
Approve 39%
Disapprove 50%
Undecided 11%

4. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 42%
Undecided 12%

5. Do you consider President Bush to be a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only)
Yes 34%
No 52%
Undecided 14%

6. Would you like to see the United States Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade?
Yes 33%
No 55%
Undecided 12%

7. Would you like to see the United States withdraw all troops immediately from Iraq within the next six months?
Yes 34%
No 50%
Undecided 16%

8. Do you expect another terrorist attack in the United States within the next six months?
Yes 72%
No 7%
Undecided 21%

9. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed Rendell's job performance?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 36%
Undecided 18%

10. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Governor Ed Rendell?
Favorable 43%
Unfavorable 34%
Undecided 23%

11. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Republican Lynn Swann?
Favorable 51%
Unfavorable 26%
Undecided 23%

12. If the election for Governor was held today, and the choice was between Ed Rendell, the Democrat and Lynn Swann, the Republican, whom would you vote for?
Ed Rendell 44%
Lynn Swann 44%
Other 2%
Undecided 10%

13. Do you approve or disapprove of United States Senator Rick Santorum's job performance?
Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%
Undecided 9%

14. If the election for United States Senate were held today, and the choice was between Robert Casey, Jr., the Democrat and Rick Santorum, the Republican, whom would you vote for?
Robert Casey 52%
Rick Santorum 38%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

15. Do you approve or disapprove of United States Senator Arlen Specter's job performance?
Approve 54%
Disapprove 36%
Undecided 10%

16. Do you approve or disapprove of the Pennsylvania legislature's job performance?
Approve 19%
Disapprove 61%
Undecided 20%

17. Would you like to see Governor Ed Rendell run for President in 2008?
Yes 8%
No 58%
Undecided 34%

18. Would you like to see Senator Rick Santorum run for President in 2008?
Yes 8%
No 68%
Undecided 24%

19. Who is your choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008? (Democrats only)
Hillary Clinton 38%
Al Gore 18%
John Edwards 9%
Russ Feingold 6%
John Kerry 5%
Mark Warner 5%
Wesley Clark 3%
Joseph Biden 2%
Ed Rendell 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 9%

20. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 38%
John McCain 27%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 3%
George Allen 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
George Pataki 2%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 14%

21. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Republicans only; Giuliani excluded)
John McCain 31%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Mitt Romney 7%
Bill Frist 6%
George Allen 4%
Rick Santorum 2%
George Pataki 2%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 38%

22. Would you like Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to run for President in 2008? (Republicans Only)
Yes 43%
No 33%
Undecided 24%

23. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008 with Condoleezza Rice included? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 35%
John McCain 24%
Condoleeza Rice 11%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 3%
George Allen 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%

24. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008 with Condoleezza Rice included and Rudy Giuliani excluded? (Republicans only)
John McCain 26%
Condoleeza Rice 15%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 3%
George Allen 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 37%

25. Do you think that Pennsylvania is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right 35%
Wrong 56%
Undecided 9%

I was in the bag until I saw the poll for presidential preferences. McCain at 26% leads the pack.

So I says to myself, there's something fishy here.

You're right. I was looking at the wrong question. I'm still suspicious.

Don't let the usual FR prejudice blind you. The membership of FR is not a good representation of the political mainstream. McCain is very popular with a lot of people. He may (or may not TBD) be the best man to beat Hillary. But thats a ways off yet. I don't hold the usual McCainophobe views that are prevalent on FR. But there are others I would be more comfortable with. On the other hand it looks grim for Santorum. Unless something crazy happens between now and election day I think he would be well advised to start polishing up his resume.

5 posted on 03/15/2006 3:27:05 PM PST by jecIIny (You faithful, let us pray for the Catechumens! Lord Have Mercy)

I like Rudy. But I could never vote for him because of his views on abortion. That sadly is one of the problems we have. If your a loyal Republican (or Democrat) on most issues but buck the party on abortion there is a glass ceiling for your political future. I think Rudy knows he can never be President as a Republican and I respect him for staying in the party anyway. He would make a good Defense Secretary or maybe Homeland Security for the next president though.

6 posted on 03/15/2006 3:30:04 PM PST by jecIIny (You faithful, let us pray for the Catechumens! Lord Have Mercy)

7 posted on 03/15/2006 3:46:59 PM PST by satchmodog9 (Most people stand on the tracks and never even hear the train coming)

10 posted on 03/15/2006 4:32:31 PM PST by always vigilant (Ignore their heathen prayers and help us blow those bastards straight to hell. - Mel)

Historically any candidate that far behind in the polls against his opponent is a cooked goose barring something really dramatic. I am not happy about it. I like Santorum. But I am a realist.

11 posted on 03/15/2006 4:38:56 PM PST by jecIIny (You faithful, let us pray for the Catechumens! Lord Have Mercy)

Typical polling fallacy of inherent contradictions:

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq?
Approve 39%
Disapprove 50%
Undecided 11%

7. Would you like to see the United States withdraw all troops immediately from Iraq within the next six months?
Yes 34%
No 50%
Undecided 16%

Polsters ask questions. People answer them. Nobody bothers to add them up. With these poll questions 1+1=3. Or whatever.

Nonsense.

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