Posted on 03/13/2006 6:24:53 PM PST by blam
Taiwan storm set to get louder
By Chris Hogg
BBC News, Hong Kong
Tensions between the two sides are running high
It is 12 months since China passed a law authorising the use of force against Taiwan if the self-governing island moved towards formal independence.
On the face of it, it looks like nothing much has changed since then.
Both sides are still flinging insults at each other. China is still refusing to talk to Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian. The "status quo", as people call it, remains in place.
But conversations with the leading players and analysts who monitor their every move suggest an alternative conclusion - the situation has changed, and continues to evolve.
"Beijing now is taking a different approach to dealing with the Taiwan issue" argued Lo Chih-cheng from Taiwan's Institute for National Policy Research.
Taiwan flashpoint
"They want to be the 'good cop'," he said. "They're asking Washington to be the 'bad cop'. They offer carrots to people here while pressuring the Americans to take a more hard-line approach to prevent any move towards independence."
One carrot was Beijing's invitation to leaders from Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) opposition to meet them in the Great Hall of the People, a few weeks after the anti-secession law was passed.
Senior KMT lawmaker Su Chi believes the contacts between his party and the mainland leaders have helped ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait since the anti-secession law was passed.
"We gave them the assurance that not everyone in Taiwan is pushing for independence so there's no need to panic," he said, "no need to attack or invade Taiwan. We have saved Taiwan's skin."
Unsurprisingly, the chairman of the government body tasked with handling cross-strait issues, the Mainland Affairs Council, sees it quite differently.
Joseph Wu said relations between the two sides have worsened in the last 12 months.
Our president is being treated probably worse than a terrorist or a criminal and that's not fair to Taiwan
He sees the meeting between opposition leaders and the Chinese leadership as an attempt to meddle in Taiwan's internal affairs.
And he cited China's continuing military build-up and continuing efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically as evidence of a tougher, not a softer, line from Beijing.
He used the strongest language to protest against the way the international community - almost all of whose members grant diplomatic recognition to China rather than Taiwan - treats the island's democratically elected leader.
"Our president is being treated probably worse than a terrorist or a criminal, and that's not fair to Taiwan. It adds to Taiwan's frustration," he said. "We think this is the problem."
Domestic woes
Beijing has been alarmed by Mr Chen's recent scrapping of a council on reunification with the mainland, the National Unification Council.
Mr Wu denied that the president was trying to draw attention away from his problems at home.
Mr Chen's poll ratings have plummeted and his Democratic Progressive Party has been damaged by corruption scandals and beaten badly in local elections.
Critics said his scrapping of the Council was part of an attempt to draw attention back to the threat posed by China, and edge Taiwan closer towards formal independence.
"(He's) trying to consolidate the pro-independent voters' support, and distract Taiwanese voters' attention from his party's corruption and poor performance in developing the economy," said Kaocheng Wang, director of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University.
Opposition supporters have denounced Mr Chen's tactics
KMT legislator Su Chi said the president's next tactic would be to try to make constitutional reform an issue in the months to come.
President Chen has already made clear his view that "re-engineering" of the document was needed.
The opposition fears this means rewriting the whole document.
The Mainland Affairs Council's Joseph Wu denied that. He pointed out that the current document was drawn up in China in 1947, and that certain sections were "simply out of date".
Mr Chen has pledged not to touch on the issues of sovereignty. But he has refused to be drawn on what changes he plans to propose.
Proposing changing the island's official name or flag, for example, would provoke a furious response from Beijing.
Even limited constitutional changes passed last year led to protests from China's leaders.
So why bother to risk antagonising them again?
Some analysts point out that if it provokes sabre-rattling by the Chinese, that could prove to be an electoral asset for the president's party - as it has done in the past.
Mr Chen personally does not have any more elections to fight - he has to stand down after finishing his two terms as president in 2008 - but of course he wants to do his best to ensure his party remains in power.
And like many politicians coming to the end of their term in office, he no doubt has an eye to his legacy, and wants his place in the history books.
My Chinese is actually a bit rusty but I can still hold my own. I've been lazy to study for a while...
What were you doing in Shanghai? Lots of hot chicks in Shanghai btw.
BTTT
True there are some loon jobs out there but the thinking types have stated the obvious many times over.
Thanks. I know the history of the Hakka.
what program are you using to type chinese with anyway?
As to the points you were making about the intertwining of Formosa and the mainland...one of those points you used to negate this particular comeback was that the ROC government claims to be the legitimate government of the mainland...but that is not the case anymore and is something nearly a decade or so out of date.
I believe from my own experience that the people on Taiwan are freedom loving, entreprenuereal, and vibrant compared to what I have experience on the mainland...particularly when you get away from the glittery showplaces that have been created in certain economic zones. I believe that is the case because of the freedom they enjoy and the republican institutions and free market they have established.
I have friends there who continue to do quite well...and not just some kind of executives. I am talking about mid-level management and workers that I know personally. Perhaps not as striking as it was a few years ago...but still comfortable by the vast majority of this globe's standards. That's the point I am trying to make, along with the fact that the CCP continues to be the inpediment to liberty for the people on the mainland...and that as long as their funding continues, I do not see that ending peacefully or happily any time soon.
FRegards.
Firefox 1.5 :)
(they're just copy/paste big-5 characters)
Because Taiwan is a ethnically Chinese society that has successfully integrated democratic ideals and commonly accepted truth into it. That is SO HUGE. Standing alone that should do it,
The conflict arises from having two systems in one supposed society.
In reality its a bunch of smaller societies and cultures...but none the less...the CCP doesn't like competition...
You can't have it both ways if you know what I mean.
I was over there a few times on my own gig...but I haven't been back for a while. I wasn't working out of Shanghai though...
well stated. Liberty is missing from people's rants here. Even though China is turning capitalist with its economy, they are still Clooney and Hillarys fantasy "perfect government" -- leftist totalitarian. The people are Taiwain desire to be "free" and freely elect their leaders. They are a very hardworking people.
We can discuss details later. I am half asleep right about now. As for the semantics question, its all about semantics...get used to it if you want to hang around the Taiwan debate for any amount of time, here or elsewhere.
AH! You said "SHREWD"...my bad.
Based on MY experience...um nevermind.
What do you mean shrewd?
Oh well. I can live without typing Chinese although admittedly it would be good practice.
My eyes must be going bad. I could have sworn you said something else.
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