Posted on 03/13/2006 6:24:53 PM PST by blam
Taiwan storm set to get louder
By Chris Hogg
BBC News, Hong Kong
Tensions between the two sides are running high
It is 12 months since China passed a law authorising the use of force against Taiwan if the self-governing island moved towards formal independence.
On the face of it, it looks like nothing much has changed since then.
Both sides are still flinging insults at each other. China is still refusing to talk to Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian. The "status quo", as people call it, remains in place.
But conversations with the leading players and analysts who monitor their every move suggest an alternative conclusion - the situation has changed, and continues to evolve.
"Beijing now is taking a different approach to dealing with the Taiwan issue" argued Lo Chih-cheng from Taiwan's Institute for National Policy Research.
Taiwan flashpoint
"They want to be the 'good cop'," he said. "They're asking Washington to be the 'bad cop'. They offer carrots to people here while pressuring the Americans to take a more hard-line approach to prevent any move towards independence."
One carrot was Beijing's invitation to leaders from Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) opposition to meet them in the Great Hall of the People, a few weeks after the anti-secession law was passed.
Senior KMT lawmaker Su Chi believes the contacts between his party and the mainland leaders have helped ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait since the anti-secession law was passed.
"We gave them the assurance that not everyone in Taiwan is pushing for independence so there's no need to panic," he said, "no need to attack or invade Taiwan. We have saved Taiwan's skin."
Unsurprisingly, the chairman of the government body tasked with handling cross-strait issues, the Mainland Affairs Council, sees it quite differently.
Joseph Wu said relations between the two sides have worsened in the last 12 months.
Our president is being treated probably worse than a terrorist or a criminal and that's not fair to Taiwan
He sees the meeting between opposition leaders and the Chinese leadership as an attempt to meddle in Taiwan's internal affairs.
And he cited China's continuing military build-up and continuing efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically as evidence of a tougher, not a softer, line from Beijing.
He used the strongest language to protest against the way the international community - almost all of whose members grant diplomatic recognition to China rather than Taiwan - treats the island's democratically elected leader.
"Our president is being treated probably worse than a terrorist or a criminal, and that's not fair to Taiwan. It adds to Taiwan's frustration," he said. "We think this is the problem."
Domestic woes
Beijing has been alarmed by Mr Chen's recent scrapping of a council on reunification with the mainland, the National Unification Council.
Mr Wu denied that the president was trying to draw attention away from his problems at home.
Mr Chen's poll ratings have plummeted and his Democratic Progressive Party has been damaged by corruption scandals and beaten badly in local elections.
Critics said his scrapping of the Council was part of an attempt to draw attention back to the threat posed by China, and edge Taiwan closer towards formal independence.
"(He's) trying to consolidate the pro-independent voters' support, and distract Taiwanese voters' attention from his party's corruption and poor performance in developing the economy," said Kaocheng Wang, director of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University.
Opposition supporters have denounced Mr Chen's tactics
KMT legislator Su Chi said the president's next tactic would be to try to make constitutional reform an issue in the months to come.
President Chen has already made clear his view that "re-engineering" of the document was needed.
The opposition fears this means rewriting the whole document.
The Mainland Affairs Council's Joseph Wu denied that. He pointed out that the current document was drawn up in China in 1947, and that certain sections were "simply out of date".
Mr Chen has pledged not to touch on the issues of sovereignty. But he has refused to be drawn on what changes he plans to propose.
Proposing changing the island's official name or flag, for example, would provoke a furious response from Beijing.
Even limited constitutional changes passed last year led to protests from China's leaders.
So why bother to risk antagonising them again?
Some analysts point out that if it provokes sabre-rattling by the Chinese, that could prove to be an electoral asset for the president's party - as it has done in the past.
Mr Chen personally does not have any more elections to fight - he has to stand down after finishing his two terms as president in 2008 - but of course he wants to do his best to ensure his party remains in power.
And like many politicians coming to the end of their term in office, he no doubt has an eye to his legacy, and wants his place in the history books.
Nor should they ever be under their rule.
When the Communist Party goes away the idea of unification isn't going to be that big of a deal anymore, except among some uber hardcore types.
That is, unity chosen by both sides.
Would mostly just prefer to avoid a conflict.
The Taiwnese are doing well enough governing themselves. At least I don't think their corruption is any worse and might be less horrendous.
Under ethic terms, there are tons of people who are...
It just depends on what you are talking about...
Direct translation is 'bullshizzle'...or something to that effect.
bump
#1. Its not the same government. There is an entirely different party and governance now than there was back in the day.
The one major difference? Elections.
#2. You are over 10 years out of date. The official government of Taiwan removed any reference to 'claiming the mainland' over 10 years back.
I assume you know something about the governance of old China...
The context of 'Zhong' and the philosophy of it...
You tell me what it means...and tell me whats changed...
The CCP thinks they are the only people who rule "China"...Thats the problem. Taiwan should never submit to their control.
You can thank the Useless Nations for expelling Taiwan in 1971 in order to accomodate China.
As to the language, etc. making them Chinese (as in mainland Chinese), again, hogwash. Their political leanings, their outlook, their desires all set them apart from the mainland. I speak English and my ancestors come from England...but I am an American. The arguements for the most part that you are laying out there are strawmen and many of them suspiciously sound like the CCP talking points in many ways.
Either way, the United States will stand by Taiwan...you watch and see.
I thought that, would be more like " 亂講 "?
But I really couldn't swear to that.
I believe a lot of the Hakka Chinese went to Taiwan.
We can all hope that the CCP goes down and that the mainland arrives at a set of circumsatnces where they are free. At that point, a lot of what we are talking about will be moot.
...but I doubt the CCP is going to go down easily or lightly as long as they continue to bring in the amounts and types of capital that they are attracting.
Well, I agree with you. However, the Taiwan independence types really need to come out and say it, instead of making up stories to deceive others.
Followed by Carter's betrayal of the ROC within our own government.
As for being a 'province of another country'... Taiwan has never been part of modern China. Since the Treaty of Shimoneski back in the late 1800s they were never even territories of China.
None the less the revisionist historians on the mainland seek to prop up the communist party viewpoint...
There are so many benefits to helping Taiwan...Because Taiwan is a ethnically Chinese society that has successfully integrated democratic ideals and commonly accepted truth into it.
That is SO HUGE. Standing alone that should do it, but there is even more than that.
You have a government in China that is held up by lies and propaganda...and is extremely repressive.
For the good of the Mainland and all the people on it, we need to foster change on the Mainland and we will do it by not giving up Taiwan.
That fundamental change and adoption will prevent a future massive culture clash.
By getting them off of their propaganda bs and into a world of truth we are creating a framework where we can cooperate and have peace. We can't have that as long as there is communist party propaganda telling their lies about us and others.
Yeah China got wronged in the past, but the reaction to that was extremely overarching and overreacting. They turned into a nation of extremists. Extremists are hard to get along with. Truth to the masses creates friends.
I lived in Shanghai for two years unitl beginning of this year, never had trouble accessing FR. The Chinese are not particularily interested in blocking foreign sites in non-Chinese language. Most of the censoring is on the Chinese language sites.
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