Taiwan Storm Set To Get Louder (China)

BBC ^ | 3-14-2006 | Chris Hogg

[blam]

Taiwan storm set to get louder

By Chris Hogg
BBC News, Hong Kong

Tensions between the two sides are running high

It is 12 months since China passed a law authorising the use of force against Taiwan if the self-governing island moved towards formal independence.

On the face of it, it looks like nothing much has changed since then.

Both sides are still flinging insults at each other. China is still refusing to talk to Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian. The "status quo", as people call it, remains in place.

But conversations with the leading players and analysts who monitor their every move suggest an alternative conclusion - the situation has changed, and continues to evolve.

"Beijing now is taking a different approach to dealing with the Taiwan issue" argued Lo Chih-cheng from Taiwan's Institute for National Policy Research.

Taiwan flashpoint

"They want to be the 'good cop'," he said. "They're asking Washington to be the 'bad cop'. They offer carrots to people here while pressuring the Americans to take a more hard-line approach to prevent any move towards independence."

One carrot was Beijing's invitation to leaders from Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) opposition to meet them in the Great Hall of the People, a few weeks after the anti-secession law was passed.

Senior KMT lawmaker Su Chi believes the contacts between his party and the mainland leaders have helped ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait since the anti-secession law was passed.

"We gave them the assurance that not everyone in Taiwan is pushing for independence so there's no need to panic," he said, "no need to attack or invade Taiwan. We have saved Taiwan's skin."

Unsurprisingly, the chairman of the government body tasked with handling cross-strait issues, the Mainland Affairs Council, sees it quite differently.

Joseph Wu said relations between the two sides have worsened in the last 12 months.

Our president is being treated probably worse than a terrorist or a criminal and that's not fair to Taiwan

He sees the meeting between opposition leaders and the Chinese leadership as an attempt to meddle in Taiwan's internal affairs.

And he cited China's continuing military build-up and continuing efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically as evidence of a tougher, not a softer, line from Beijing.

He used the strongest language to protest against the way the international community - almost all of whose members grant diplomatic recognition to China rather than Taiwan - treats the island's democratically elected leader.

"Our president is being treated probably worse than a terrorist or a criminal, and that's not fair to Taiwan. It adds to Taiwan's frustration," he said. "We think this is the problem."

Domestic woes

Beijing has been alarmed by Mr Chen's recent scrapping of a council on reunification with the mainland, the National Unification Council.

Mr Wu denied that the president was trying to draw attention away from his problems at home.

Mr Chen's poll ratings have plummeted and his Democratic Progressive Party has been damaged by corruption scandals and beaten badly in local elections.

Critics said his scrapping of the Council was part of an attempt to draw attention back to the threat posed by China, and edge Taiwan closer towards formal independence.

"(He's) trying to consolidate the pro-independent voters' support, and distract Taiwanese voters' attention from his party's corruption and poor performance in developing the economy," said Kaocheng Wang, director of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University.

Opposition supporters have denounced Mr Chen's tactics

KMT legislator Su Chi said the president's next tactic would be to try to make constitutional reform an issue in the months to come.

President Chen has already made clear his view that "re-engineering" of the document was needed.

The opposition fears this means rewriting the whole document.

The Mainland Affairs Council's Joseph Wu denied that. He pointed out that the current document was drawn up in China in 1947, and that certain sections were "simply out of date".

Mr Chen has pledged not to touch on the issues of sovereignty. But he has refused to be drawn on what changes he plans to propose.

Proposing changing the island's official name or flag, for example, would provoke a furious response from Beijing.

Even limited constitutional changes passed last year led to protests from China's leaders.

So why bother to risk antagonising them again?

Some analysts point out that if it provokes sabre-rattling by the Chinese, that could prove to be an electoral asset for the president's party - as it has done in the past.

Mr Chen personally does not have any more elections to fight - he has to stand down after finishing his two terms as president in 2008 - but of course he wants to do his best to ensure his party remains in power.

And like many politicians coming to the end of their term in office, he no doubt has an eye to his legacy, and wants his place in the history books.

[Jeff Head]

Sorry, pganini, we disagree fundamentally. I believe the people on Taiwan will fight, and they will receive our support. I also believe they not only have the right not to want to be part of the mainaland, but they are right not to want to be a part of the mainland as a communist country. If the mainalnad became free...that might change...but it is not free and that is all the difference in the world. That's reality.

We've both stated our views on this and I am more than comfortable to let the lurkers and readers come to their own conclusions.

Time will tell and be the judge between us.

[pganini]

the countries you listed have never been part of RUSSIA before. Taiwan has been part of China. That's the difference.

I'd agree the definition of whether one territory belongs to another is mainly due to longevity (i.e. the longer you hold on, the longer you have claim to it) and it's true that China lost its hold on it after Japan attacked the imperial China in 1890's. However, China did have several hundred years of rule on the island prior to that and that's where the claim is. It doesn't matter if China is communist or not, even if Nationalists have won the civil war and Communists fled to Taiwan, the Nationalists will still demand reunification just like North and South Korea would.

We do have plenty of examples of a democratic elected government declaring independence and all of them resulted in a civil war or independence war (US independnece, US civil war, etc.) We also have examples where democracies don't allow other democracies to become independent (US civil war is a classic example).

Bush understands this, and that's why he's telling Chen to back off and not buckle the status quo because declaring independence is a sure thing of a war across the Taiwan strait. He's got more problems to worry about than Taiwan.

[starbase]

Oh my apologies. You included my name in Post #76 so I thought you were soliciting a comment from me.

[Avenger]

Ah I see, that post was really mainly intended for pganini.

By the way, I have lived in Taiwan and visited numerous times and have a positive impression about the island and its people. Yes, Taipei (and other large cities) are very polluted but there are also some very beautiful areas. Moreover, I found the people quite friendly - more so as you move out of the big towns. When I was there I made a number of friends - from taxi cab drivers to fairly high level government officials - just by chance meetings. These people were kind enough to invite an ordinary stranger like myself into their home and treat me very graciously even though I had little more to offer other than my friendship.

[starbase]

These people were kind enough to invite an ordinary stranger like myself into their home and treat me very graciously even though I had little more to offer other than my friendship.

Well then, you were very lucky. Not everyone who comes to Taiwan is as lucky as you:

Thai Workers Riot Against Unfair Firm

The management personnel stopped one Thai worker from using a cellphone and reportedly hit him with an electric prod," the Broadcasting Corporation of China (BCC) reported.

Thai workers living in cramped conditions in dormitories. The lack of basic freedoms led to a riot yesterday at worker dormitories in Kaohsiung.

In addition to the bans on alcohol, cellphones and Thai television in the dormitory, the Thai workers were required to use tokens in the dorm store, but they allege they were short-changed when exchanging the script for real money, it added.

Taiwan imports more Thai labor than any other place in the world, you'd think they could treat them better. And here's a story from a less credentialed source which nevertheless details treatment some Filipinos received in Taiwan:

Cheaten, Beaten, and Forcibly Removed

I'm not saying Taiwanese are evil, but they are almost carbon copies of the people on the mainland, they are no different. How could they be?

And regarding your experience with them, you should know that they are keenly aware of how much more valuable Americans are to them than Thais and Filipinos. In my return trip this time around I have found them to be incessant re-evaluators, not a problem until your "value" comes up $0.00, then you get the prod and the forced removal.

Anyway, I am just offering an alternative view, even though I know being pro-Taiwan is clearly in favor here. But that is one of the excellent qualities of this forum, sharing alternative views.

[Cronos]

I agree with you 100%/. The Taiwanese are the main funders of China's economy (that great FDI that you hear about is mostly from Taiwan and HKG). If they want to fund their enemies, let the Taiwanese stew in their own pot.

[Cronos]

And I don't agree that even if China is democratic then the tension will drop. In fact, Chen Shui Bian will be out there saying that Taiwan is a separate country from China even if China is democratic because it is a separate "people" ethnically.

well, they ARE a separate people ethnically. They may have been one people some time ago, but politics DO change ethnicity. Example -- Slovakia and the Czech republic -- both have the same origins and the language spoken is similar, but they have different histories -- the Czechs came under German (Austrian) rule while the Slovaks were under Hungarian rule. This led to a separation.

Just as the reverse happened for the Manchus (as you correctly pointed out elsewhere, the Manchus got assimilated amongst the Han), a devolution process also occurs -- as we note in the difference between the Germans and the Austrians and the Dutch and the English, all Germanic peoples originally.

[Cronos]

Even if the CCP was removed, and there aren't any more censors, no one in China will buy that hogwash that Taiwan wasn't a province of China prior to the Japanese aggression in the 1800's. Fact is, Taiwan was settled in the late Ming Dynasty when the manchurians gained control of China by a ex-Ming general. He vowed to return to the mainland (similar to KMT) to regain control. So in that sense, Taiwan was part of China for more than 300 years.

But it has not been part of China since the 1800s. Pretty similar to the case of Gibraltar -- it was part of Spain for 200 odd years, then it became part of England and is now English. Do you think Gibraltar should be returned to Spain?

Similarly, the Spanish colonies in North Africa, should they be returned to Morocco?

[Cronos]

then proceed to take over Tibet + Xinjiang in the 16-17th centuries and then they convert into the culture, it essentially made those two areas part of China in the eyes of mainlanders

Note that to some extent I agree that in the long run China and Taiwan could be one country, I strongly oppose Tibet or Uighuristan or Inner Mongolia being part of China. By clubbing in those two regions, that would then mean that Vietnam too would have to be part of China and maybe also Singapore.....

[Cronos]

Yes, let the Main land take over Taiwan in exchange for a free Tibet.

[Cronos]

"That's besides the point anyway, the fact is, no country has ever declared independence and not have to fight a war for that independence."

REally? India didn't fight a war for it's Independence, they followed the Mahatma's policy of peaceful resistance......

[Cronos]

Take Taiwan, free Tibet (and also Inner Mongolia) -- I can see the good points of China's annexation of the Muslim uighur lands, but that's still annexation and cultural genocide, no matter which way you spin it.

[Cronos]

the countries you listed have never been part of RUSSIA before. Taiwan has been part of China. That's the difference.

Note that Ukraine, Belarus have been part of Russia for a long, looong time before they got independence, so if once Russian, always Russian is your philosophy, those countries should be part of Russia. Also note that Taiwan and Eastern China was part of Japan (for a short time, but they were STILL a part of Japan), hence they should revert to Japan, eh?

Ditto for South America -- Nuevo Hispania, it should return to Spain. And America should be English or French.

Finally, England and France were once part of the Roman Empire (Italy's predecessory), so France, Spain, England, Switzerland, Portugal, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Greece, Albania, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, parts of Hungary, Austria, Germany, the Low-lands etc. should be returned to Italy (Viva Italia!!)

[Cronos]

the countries you listed have never been part of RUSSIA before. Taiwan has been part of China. That's the difference.

Oh, and also note that Israel was once part of the Islammic caliphate, hence I guess you support the Hamas movement to destroy Israel?

[Cronos]

You're just plain wrong -- the Chinese empire will disintegrate and the Mongols, Uighur and Tibetans will free themselves.