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Devastating bird flu pandemic one step away - expert
RIA Novosti ^ | 07/ 03/ 2006

Posted on 03/12/2006 5:22:46 AM PST by Lessismore

MOSCOW, March 7 (RIA Novosti) - The world is one step away from a bird flu pandemic that cannot be averted by quarantine or vaccination, a Russian expert said Tuesday.

"One amino-acid replacement in the genome remains to make the virus transferable from human to human," said Dmitry Lvov, the director of a virology research institute at the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences.

Lvov said the pandemic virus could strike at any moment, and would most likely come from China, leading to tens of millions of human deaths, or one third of the global population. He added quarantine measures could delay the pandemic for a few days but not prevent it, and that vaccination would not stop people getting sick.

"A good vaccine will only save [people] from death and complications, but not from the illness itself," he said.

Lvov said any pandemic was based on a hybridization of the bird and human viruses.

Pigs are the most vulnerable animals in the face of both human and bird viruses, which makes them "an intermediary link between human and bird flu," he said.

Lvov said the bird flu pandemic was irreversible like any other natural cataclysm, and would not stop until the highly pathogenic strain mutates into a less dangerous one.

"When will it stop? When highly pathogenic strains localized in wild birds are once again transformed into a low-pathogenic one according to the law of nature," Lvov said.

He said all that could be done to deal with the pandemic was large amounts of vaccination, hundreds of thousands of beds in intensive care, and the necessary instruments and medicines.

Lvov also said that the bird flu virus would shortly sweep the south of central Russia, specifically the Astrakhan, Rostov-on-Don, and Volgograd Regions.

The Agriculture Ministry said Monday that bird flu had been registered in eight regions in the south of the country, a major stopover area for migrating birds.

The ministry said over 1.3 million birds had died or been slaughtered in three outbreaks of bird flu since July 2005.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: avianflu; birdflu; h5n1; pandemic
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To: Gritty

I predict illegal aliens will be the ones that spread it around. Just like they are carrying tuberculosis and diptheria right now. I have started to update the 12 vaccinations I had in the military. I was never healthier than when I had those antibodies swimming around. I only got sick once in 6 years and that was from something I ate.


41 posted on 03/12/2006 8:35:46 AM PST by BobS
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To: raybbr
--You really are having a hard time grasping this aren't you.

Lvov said the pandemic virus could strike at any moment, and would most likely come from China, leading to tens of millions of human deaths, or one third of the global population. He added quarantine measures could delay the pandemic for a few days but not prevent it, and that vaccination would not stop people getting sick.

Gosh, tens of millions or one-third of the population. I wonder what convoluted calculations leads to those two mutually exclusive predictions. No, my grasp is just that this article is typical of the State of Fear and based on past experience the bird flue will turn out not to be the big one.

42 posted on 03/12/2006 8:41:17 AM PST by bkepley
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To: BobS
I predict illegal aliens will be the ones that spread it around. Just like they are carrying tuberculosis and diptheria right now.

They'll be among the first ones rushing the Emergency Rooms and getting on the scarce ventilaors. They never have been shy about swarming our hospitals for "free" healthcare at the first sign of the sniffles.

Our intensive care medical resources are spread much too thin for a serious pandemic like this which will task it over the limit into "breakdown" mode in a hurry.

43 posted on 03/12/2006 8:48:21 AM PST by Gritty
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To: Termite_Commander; Oorang; Judith Anne; crystal wind; Mother Abigail; Dog Gone

I thnk that's my mini pinglist.

I haven't pung you to articles I've seen lately but figured I'd start again since it may be in Alaska in a while...


44 posted on 03/12/2006 9:06:41 AM PST by little jeremiah (Tolerating evil IS evil.)
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To: Gritty
"They'll be among the first ones rushing the Emergency Rooms and getting on the scarce ventilaors. "

I belive I heard it reported that there are only 150 ventilators nationwide. Don't expect to get onto one of those if you get severe pneumonia. The safest course looks like isolation (which is my plan)...don't get it in the first place.

45 posted on 03/12/2006 9:08:50 AM PST by blam
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To: Lessismore
I have no doubt that terrible things are going to happen in the future, but they will be things the self-appointed soothsayers and doomsday cultists never say coming.
46 posted on 03/12/2006 9:12:02 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Islam Factoid:After forcing young girls to watch his men execute their fathers, Muhammad raped them.)
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To: Gritty

14 emergency rooms have closed in southern CA because of illegal aliens. 2 years ago I went to the emergency room in a wealthy district for what I thought was a heart attack. It was not. My body is healthy except for my left arm pulling the tendons off my rib cage right above my heart. That's West Hills hospital. I got a full physical over 3 days. The illegal aliens swarm to Northridge Hospital and Holy Cross medical center in Mission Hills. I will not go there for any reason. Those are likely the next emergency rooms to close down.


47 posted on 03/12/2006 9:15:38 AM PST by BobS
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To: NonZeroSum

From what I've read, the opportunistic infections were not the primary cause of death, rather the cykotine storm (over reaction of the immune system). It has been stated on FR by medical community people that there are only 115,000 ventilators in US hospitals and the hospital bed capacity is not large at all.

Modern medicine won't help people if the hospitals have no more beds and all machines that help people breathe are being used.

Antibiotics would only be of use if there is a secondary bacterial infection.


48 posted on 03/12/2006 9:18:36 AM PST by little jeremiah (Tolerating evil IS evil.)
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To: blam; Judith Anne

It was JA who posted the 115,000 number of ventilators in the US IIRC.

Still, that is a miniscule number if millions of people fall ill.

We should also note that on the averge 36,000 people die of regular flu a year in the US.


49 posted on 03/12/2006 9:30:17 AM PST by little jeremiah (Tolerating evil IS evil.)
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To: blam
I belive I heard it reported that there are only 150 ventilators nationwide

Funny you should bring that up.

The New York Times today had a long article and informative on this potential shortage.

According to the article, there are approximately 105,000 mechanical ventilators, nationwide. In any given flu season, around 100,000 are in use at any given time. The Strategic National Stockpile has 4-5,000 additional for distribution. Unfortunately - according to the National Emergency Plan issued last November - we would need approximately 742,500 at any one time (assuming the pandemic doesn't get any worse than a lower case scenario).

In other words - if this thing hits - somebody's gonna get left out. And without a mechanical ventilator, he/she ain't gonna last long once this thing settles into the deep lungs, which is where it heads.

By the way, these ventilators cost around $30,000. So, it is unlikely the Average Joe can get one to stash in his basement. Besides, the world's largest manufacturer of these things says they can ramp up production only to about 10,000 a year. So there still won't be enough to go around - even if you could afford one.

Here is the Link, but you have to register to read it...

50 posted on 03/12/2006 9:30:36 AM PST by Gritty
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To: BobS
14 emergency rooms have closed in southern CA because of illegal aliens...

See my Post #50.

I doubt it would do you much good if you went there anyway - unless you were in the very early stages and they had Tamiflu readily available.

51 posted on 03/12/2006 9:34:01 AM PST by Gritty
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To: blam
"The safest course looks like isolation (which is my plan)..."

There is another option. Wear double face masks. That is what a nurse I know from Brazil does after they have their Carnival. Strange diseases occur in the tropical areas. She's healthy:)

Wash hands frequently. Cremate what you eat. And don't walk around BSing with people at work all day long:) Their kids are the source of most colds, flu, whatever.

52 posted on 03/12/2006 9:36:15 AM PST by BobS
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To: bkepley; Gritty
I've been hearing about this for a long time now. How long before we can safely say it was much ado about nothing?

I agree with Gritty: It'll be much ado about nothing once we have an entire new vaccination technology invented and the infrastructure for it fully constructed and ready to put into operation at a moment's notice. The problem with something like bird flu is that there is no expiration date on the problem. With Y2K, once we woke up on 1/1/2000 and saw that the world hadn't ended, we were able wipe our hands of the entire mess and forget about it. With H5N1 (or any other flu variant), the magic mutation could happen tomorrow, it could happen ten years from now, or it may never happen at all. It's just a never-ending game of craps being played every time another human gets infected from an animal. The odds for every individual crapshoot are greatly on our side, but when you're playing an infinite number of games...

53 posted on 03/12/2006 9:58:26 AM PST by Dont Mention the War (This tagline is false.)
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To: Gritty
"By the way, these ventilators cost around $30,000. So, it is unlikely the Average Joe can get one to stash in his basement."

I'm not an average Joe Blow. I know where I can "borrow" a bottle of pure anhydrous oxygen at 2000 PSI. I have the regulator and the ball flow indicator needed. Pure oxygen is like some sort of drug. You get wide awake, think and act quickly. And all the bad things in your body get oxidized and dumped when you go to the bathroom. Fighter pilots breathe it. That's why they are always bright-eyed and bushy tailed:)

54 posted on 03/12/2006 10:00:41 AM PST by BobS
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To: Lessismore
I recall the panic over SARS. People need to calm down and stop hyperventilating. We all die eventually, some later and some sooner. That's a fact of being mortal and all men are mortal.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

55 posted on 03/12/2006 10:03:00 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: little jeremiah

Thank you for the ping little jeremiah


56 posted on 03/12/2006 10:08:27 AM PST by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: BobS
I know where I can "borrow" a bottle of pure anhydrous oxygen at 2000 PSI. I have the regulator and the ball flow indicator needed.

Great!

You had best set it for an ambient altitude above 34,000 ft to get some serious pressure breathing going in there...

57 posted on 03/12/2006 10:19:44 AM PST by Gritty (Hamza was preaching murder from the Koran itself. If Koran permit, you must acquit!-Mark Steyn)
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To: little jeremiah
"It was JA who posted the 115,000 number of ventilators in the US IIRC."

Thanks for the correction. 150 did seem too small a number.

58 posted on 03/12/2006 10:46:26 AM PST by blam
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To: Gritty
"You had best set it for an ambient altitude above 34,000 ft to get some serious pressure breathing going in there..."

Then I will also need to "borrow" a ball flow indicator that measures cubic feet/min. I know where it is.

Do you belong to the Mile-High club?

59 posted on 03/12/2006 10:59:54 AM PST by BobS
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To: blam; rellimpank
"The virus attacks the stronger people worse because their bodies fight it harder."

This thread provides some insight on this.

Bird Flu May Over-Stimulate Immune System

Rellimpank, the guy I was speaking of is fire chief for a very large rural mountain area. It was part of an official report. I dunno why you automatically dismiss it, but thought you might like the link provided by Blam.
60 posted on 03/12/2006 11:18:26 AM PST by Paloma_55 (Which part of "Common Sense" do you not understand???)
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