http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2006/03/where-is-zarqawi.html
Iraq The Model reports that Sheikh Usama al-Jad'aan (the chief sheikh of the Karabla tribes of Anbar) has identified most of their captured Al Qaeda recruits now coming from Jordan in the South.
Now, this same Sheikh claims that Zarqawhi fled North and East to Afghanistan via Salahiden/Kirkuk and Iran. Frankly, I have a different opinion.
I still maintain that Zarqawi fled South to Lebanon via Jordan (hence, the new Jordanian Al Qaeda recruit path for Iraq).
Consider: if Zarqawi goes to Afghanistan, then he risks either competing operations with the Taliban/Osama Bin Laden, or else he gets close enough to Bin Laden to allow coordination but then risks the dual capture of both high level targets simultaneously.
So to me, Afghanistan would be low on his list of bugout spots. Bin Laden either has things covered there (to whatever feeble extent Al Qaeda can project power) or not...Zarqawi can't really be so arrogant as to think that he'd change that fact (especially at considerable risk to Al Qaeda via 2 high profile targets so close together). So going there adds no value for Al Qaeda...but risks much if both Zarqawi and Bin Laden are captured there.
So no. He didn't go to Afghanistan. Zarqawi went South. He'll do recruiting in Jordan and he'll be organizing in South Lebanon to hit Israel.
All of this talk about a civil war in Iraq is nonsense. All of this talk about the Arab Street being enraged against the U.S. is nonsense.
But...
If Al Qaeda hits Israel hard enough, it actually could unite a large faction of radical Muslims.
Al Qaeda bombing the Samarra Mosque in Iraq was penny-anny. It turned fence-sitting Iraqis against Al Qaeda as much as Al Qaeda's Jordan hotel bombings backfired in Amman.
Al Qaeda slaughtering 2,000 Jews in Tel Aviv would not be penny-anny. It would not backfire in the Islamic world.
Look at the data. The U.S. fatality figures in Iraq show clearly that Al Qaeda weakens in Iraq each day (96 U.S. fatalities in Iraq back in October and that has declined non-stop since then to 53 in February).
Tribe after tribe is hunting Zarqawi in Iraq...and Iraqi's blame Al Qaeda for blowing up their mosques, police recruitment centers, schools, hospitals, etc.
Al Qaeda has therefor lost Iraq. Al Qaeda has been slaughtered in Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda lost Jordan with their hotel bombings.
Al Qaeda and the Taliban are impotent in Afghanistan. They've only managed one tourist attack in Egypt.
Thus, a large amount of Muslims know that Al Qaeda is desperate and that Al Qaeda has a large string of failures.
This means that Al Qaeda's leadership will want a grand act to give them a 2nd chance in the eyes of the Muslim world.
What else can they do that all Muslims will approve other than to hit Israel?!
It's obvious. I don't like it, but it's obvious.
So Zarqawi has gone South for this attack.
He's probably in Southern Lebanon. He *might* be in Jordan or the Gaza Strip, but my money is on the lawless southern section of Lebanon (certainly not Christian-run Beirut).