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http://terrortracker.co.uk/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=224&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0
Bin Laden secure, analysts conclude
Posted by: Neil on Thursday, March 23, 2006 - 01:18 PM
Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is safer than has ever been and there is little chance of him being killed or captured in the foreseeable future, according to experts.
The al-Qaeda chief is now widely believed to be based in the Waziristan area in Pakistan, in the tribal belt running along the border with Afghanistan.
Reports this week suggest that a new militia, dubbed the "Pakistani Tablian", now controls most of the area, despite repeated anti-insurgency operations mounted by government security forces.
Dr Rohan Gunaratna, of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore, said bin Laden is in touch with senior colleagues and continues to lead the network.
"I believe that Iraq has been a huge distraction and if the US hadn't have gone to Iraq they may have by now killed bin Laden and the al-Qaeda leadership," said Dr Gunaratna.
He believes the US and its allies have not yet come even close to capturing or killing bin Laden.
"Pakistan has done its best and its involvement in the war on terror has been tremendous, but there is still a lot more to be done," says Dr Gunaratna.
Vincent Cannistraro, a former head of counter-terrorism at the US Central Intelligence Agency, said: "He has taken extraordinary security precautions to avoid detection, including the use of a complicated courier system to communicate with others. All the available data points to his presence in Waziristan, inside Pakistan, but separate from [al-Qaeda deputy leader Ayman] al-Zawahiri," he added.
Michael Scheuer, head of the CIA's bin Laden unit until 2004, said the chances of getting to bin Laden are currently slim.
He suspects bin Laden may be moving between the Kunar province in Afghanistan and the Pakistan town of Chitral in the Hindu Kush mountain range.
Neil Doyle
ON THE NET...
http://www.satp.org
http://www.saag.org
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http://www.saag.org/papers18/paper1746.html
Paper no. 1746
22. 03. 2006
"THE INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO. 36
IRAQ -- PART II & LAST"
by B. Raman
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http://www.saag.org/papers18/paper1744.html
Paper no. 1744
21. 03. 2006
"THE INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR -- PAPER No. 35
IRAQ & THE JIHADI SCORPIONS --- PART I"
by B. Raman
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http://www.saag.org/papers18/paper1743.html
Paper no. 1743
20. 03. 2006
"INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR -- PAPER NO. 34
AL QAEDA, THE IIF & INDIAN MUSLIMS"
by B. Raman