Every single troll is now an ENEMY OF THE REPUBLIC!
Posted on 03/09/2006 6:05:56 AM PST by Dark Skies
Frontpage Interview's guest today is Gordon G. Chang, the author of The Coming Collapse of China (Amazon link).
FP: Gordon G. Chang, welcome to Frontpage Interview.
Chang: Thank you very much.
FP: You believe that the Chinese Communist Party will fall from power by the end of this decade. We are talking about just a few years. What do you see here and why? And how is this compatible with the fact that China is getting more prosperous? What will replace the Party?
Chang: As China gets more prosperous, it is becoming less stable. Senior Beijing officials now face the dilemma of all reforming authoritarians: economic success endangers their continued control. As Harvard's Samuel Huntington has noted, sustained modernization is the enemy of one-party systems. Revolutions occur under many conditions, but especially when political institutions do not keep up with the social forces unleashed by economic change. And as history shows us, nothing irritates a rising social class like inflexible political institutions. The most interesting trend about protests in recent years is not that they are becoming more frequent, getting much larger, or growing more violent. The most interesting trend is that we are now seeing middle-class Chinese, the beneficiaries of the last quarter century of progress, taking to the streets.
Beijing’s policies seem designed to widen the gap between the people and their government, thereby ensuring greater instability for the foreseeable future. Today there’s unimaginable societal change at unheard of speed thanks in large part to government-sponsored economic growth and social engineering. Yet at the same time the Communist Party stands in the way of meaningful political change.
Because senior officials don’t allow political change of substance, the authorities must resort to force to stop the spread of unrest. But the use of the coercive power of the state is only a short-term solution—force just makes protests even harder to control next time. The leadership will not, or cannot, come to terms with the causes of unrest.
Ultimately, the one-party system will be replaced by democratic institutions. The transition won't be easy, however. China will probably experience years of uncertainty, instability, and turbulence.
Glazov: The government of China has instituted a policy that has resulted in the murder of one million baby girls every year for the last ten or more years. Do you think the market is going to end that?
Chang: What will end the one-child policy is the Chinese people. This draconian edict is unpopular across China, from tiny inland hamlets to the mighty coastal cities. Ordinary citizens will not put up with it for much longer. In fact, many of them are now ignoring this policy.
FP: Is America's policy of engaging China succeeding?
Chang: Beijing's foreign policies are definitely changing for the better as the result of America's generous and enlightened efforts to bring China into the international system. Beijing is no longer the outlander or the revolutionary that it was during the Maoist years. China will one day be a constructive participant in world affairs.
But it is not one today. Our policy is the grandest wager in history. We are hoping to make China a more responsible power. So far, all we have done is make it a more powerful one. We may not be creating the next Soviet Union, but we are nonetheless enabling a country that now considers us a foe. Today, China is the primary obstacle to disarming North Korea, is one of the main supporters of Iran's nuclear weapons program, is a friend of most every reprehensible regime on the planet, is the world's master proliferator of nuke technology, and is the only country that actively plans to kill Americans.
Our government seeks to engage China, which means that Washington is not willing to talk honestly about that country's behavior. Today, we overlook, ignore, and sugarcoat. The risk for us is that the Chinese will bring down the current American-led international system long before China would otherwise become a responsible power. We are playing an enormously dangerous game, and we seldom talk about the risks.
Unfortunately, positive change will not come as fast as it should, in part because we have created a set of perverse incentives. The Chinese engage in bad behavior. We reward them. So they continue their irresponsible conduct. We reward them still more. In these circumstances, why would they ever change?
So is our policy toward China succeeding? Not yet. Will it succeed? Yes, in the long term. But there may be no long term.
FP: You think that North Korea could start a chain of events that might bring down the current American-led international system. Kindly explain.
Chang: North Korea is the only nation to have withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the global pact that is at the heart of the global arms control regime. By its defiance, Pyongyang is shredding those rules and inspiring other bomb builders. Iran's atomic ayatollahs are defying the international community at this time because they saw that North Korea's Kim Jong Il did the same a few years ago and has gotten away with it.
What will our world look like when dozens of hostile and unstable regimes can trigger Armageddon? Perhaps things could turn out okay, but it is more likely that we will transition to a world that is unfamiliar to us, perhaps the most dangerous world imaginable. An international system that cannot defend its most vital interests against one of its weakest members cannot last. So this could be where the world writes its history for the next hundred years.
FP: What is the most urgent and important bilateral issue between Washington and Beijing?
Chang: The most important and urgent issue is China's proliferation of nuclear technologies and its diplomatic support for regimes like North Korea and Iran that covet the most destructive weapon in history. No other issue comes close. Why? Because nukes are the only weapons that pose an existential threat to the United States.
When Hu Jintao visits Washington in April we need to make it clear to him that nuclear proliferation is the litmus test of our relations. We have been patiently engaging the Chinese for decades, and now is the time for them to act constructively. After all, what is the point of trying to integrate them into an international system that they are trying to destablize through proliferation of nuclear technologies?
FP: What effect will the 2008 Olympics have on China?
Chang: The awarding of the Olympic games both strengthens and weakens the regime. Of course, many Chinese think better of the Communist Party for winning the right to host this event. There is an added inflow of foreign investment and sponsorship money. Tourism will increase for sure. On the other hand, the regime will be weakened as the process of modernization accelerates.
One thing the games will not do is change the leadership. Beijing has already won its prize, and senior officials see little or no need to yield to world opinion. The regime won’t change; the people will.
One more point about the Olympics. Beijing will employ every resource at its command to ensure stability in the run up to the games. It is unlikely, however, that the central authorities will be able to maintain a high level of vigilance indefinitely. Squeezing too tight now, the Communist Party will eventually have to relax its grip. The latter part of this decade promises to be a time of even greater instability for China.
FP: Gordon G. Chang, thank you for joining us today.
Chang: I appreciate your interviewing me.
But I feel compelled to comment on something else.
RE: "Russians never owned anything"
I didn't make up the history of NEP. Russians proved just as free market capable as the Chinese have -- but Stalin and party ideologues terminated NEP and the Nepmen and seized western business men's technology and investments after just eight years or so.
The west had just begun pouring technology and wealth into Russia. Henry Ford even built an exact duplicate of his Michigan tractor plant and once that factory was built and operational he had it disassembled and shipped to south Russia where is was re-assembled.
American businessmen such as Averell Harriman, Armand Hammer, and Henry Ford facilitated commercial ties between the Soviet Union and the United States. However, after just eight years of outstanding free market successes among the Russians Joseph Stalin attempted to eradicate vestiges of capitalism and to make the Soviet Union economically self-sufficient.
The Red Chinese version of NEP has lasted more than 20 years and really took off starting on the afternoon of Jan. 20, 1993 -- in a big house on Pennsylvania Ave. in Washington, D.C. IMO.
BTW, the liberal Republicans and "progressives" tried to get "free trade" going with the Soviets all throughout the Cold War. If we didn't help build the Soviet economy we'd be "playing into the hands of communist hard liners" and it would be our fault if there was a war, the "free traders" said. We didn't and there wasn't. We won the Cold War.
Now let's see what's going to happen when the "free traders" have it their way dealing with Communists.
All the while a Freeper accuses me of doom and gloom. People never learn.
Ah, now I can go to sleep depressed.
Absolutely.
Excellent article....may the authors predictions come true.
The long-overdue fall of the Communist Party may finally bring some relief to the suffering people of Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and Uighiristan. Taiwan will also reclaim its place as an independent country (despite the fond wishes of the inhuman ChiComs)
For people who think the ChiComs are not a threat (there are a few), this quote from the article bears repetition:
"FP: What is the most urgent and important bilateral issue between Washington and Beijing?
Chang: The most important and urgent issue is China's proliferation of nuclear technologies and its diplomatic support for regimes like North Korea and Iran that covet the most destructive weapon in history. No other issue comes close. Why? Because nukes are the only weapons that pose an existential threat to the United States."
China must remain Communist! they can't be democracy! or else they will kill each other. In history, chinese always fight each other! Democrasy will make worse for chinese! I am Christian but I am chinese and I know myself and feel what would be happen. China must remain Communist forever! Or else...more dead...
Care to chime in on this thread?
Very nice.....what on earth are you doing on this site then? Don't we have enough ChiCom propagandists as it is?
Take it from me - your pulitburo masters can only rule for so long. You cannot hold back freedom and liberty successfully. Communist China will be free and the people of Tibet, Taiwan, Inner Mongolia, and other occupied territories will be free from the daily genocide that is being practised by the Han ChiComs.
The Cultural Revolution killed millions as did the Great Leap Forward. If we add the numbers of Tibetians, Mongolians, Uighirs, and religious people (Christians and Buddhists), the death tolls are far, far higher than Hitler's or Stalin's.
And you claim that democracy will kill more Chinese people!! Amazing!!!
I smell Ozone.
I see lightning in your future plck
Is it just me or has FR become innundated with chi-com propagandists lately?
Every single troll is now an ENEMY OF THE REPUBLIC!
There are at least four of them running around (including our two new "friends").
The ChiCom masters are sending lots of slaves out to do their bidding. Something must be brewing in that hell hole.
Yeah I know. The troll patrol has had its hands full lately. That and this article. Must be something going on over there indeed.
LOL I love that animation. The troll ran off it seems.
Thanks...copied it froma different thread though :)
I am sure we'll see the trolls again in the near future. Looks like the ChiComs are revising their talking points though ("democracy will kill too many Chinese!!"). This coming from a person who is a self-professed Christian; if this were true, surely this troll would know about the "special treatment" that is reserved for Christians in ChiComland (and the occupied territories).
LOL no doubt. How inventive "Democracy will kill more" but that argument like the rest of theirs will not work. I dont have the URL on hand but there was a thread that showed pictures of what happens to Christians in China. I will look for that link.
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