Posted on 03/06/2006 11:46:37 PM PST by baseball_fan
Dying nations are usually defined as those with fertility rates of 1.5 or lower. By that measure, 30 European countries are either dying today or -- like France -- seeing their cultures and populations transformed by growing ethnic and religious minorities.
Europe is shrinking just as the population in Islamic, African and Asian countries is exploding. In 2020, there will be one billion "fighting-age" men (ages 15-29) world-wide; only 65 million will be Europeans. At the same time, the Muslim world will have 300 million males, often with limited opportunities at home.
Little can be done to reverse Europe's demographic fate. …snip…
This isn't the first time Europe has found itself tottering on the edge of extinction. Throughout the 1400s, outbreaks of bubonic plague and pressure from conquering Muslim armies reduced Europe's population to 40 million from 70 million. In 1484 Pope Innocent VIII responded to the crisis by decreeing the death penalty for "persons of both sexes who…snip…slay infants yet in the mother's womb (or who) hinder women from conceiving." …snip…
The results were immediate, producing fertility rates as high as in Gaza or Niger today.
…snip…
After 1945 Europe lost every war it fought, from Indochina, to Algeria to Timor. …snip… In just 100 years, Muslim countries have duplicated the tenfold growth that Europe experienced between 1500-1900. …snip
Snip…Europe's share of the world's fighting-age males, which stood at 27% in 1914, is lower today (9%) than it was in 1500 (11%). Thus, the new clothes of European "pacifism" and "soft power" conceal its naked weakness.
With a fertility rate at the 2.1 replacement level, the U.S. is still defendable. But how many times can America send out their only sons to prevent all those second, third or fourth sons from engaging in acts of violence abroad?
…snip…
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Ping!
Remember the Assyrians? They were fierce warriors. They too, forgot to reproduce and because of this, did not last long.
Except that 65M awakened Western europeans would annihilate 300M of Mohammedan rabble on a nice morning before lunch, and go back home to wine and cheese. Yea. Even the French.
Ok so that's a hyperbole. However the West got where it is today by being the most efficient killer the world has ever seen. The Europeans wrote the book on this. See "holocaust". The enlightened state of Islam is long past. I fear, new technologies being developed in the West these days, should they be turned to war purposes, would kill with such efficiency we all would not be able to forgive ourselves for generations to come.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Let's hope they reform their religeon and bring it out of middle ages before we're forced to do it for them.
The 65 million versus 300 million number for European military-age men versus their counterparts in the Islamoterrorsphere in 2020 sounds alarming.
However, the Europeans have a median IQ of about 100 and the Muslim world a median of about 80-85, about one standard deviation lower. In order to be an effective rifleman, you need to be around 100; to be an officer or special operations soldier you need to be about about one standard deviation higher or about 115 (in the US army the cutoff is lower but higher IQ is strongly correlated with passing such gateways as OCS or SFQC or BUDS; and lower, but above-cutoff IQ, is strongly correlated with early relief from such courses.
Therefore the matter is not nearly as dire as the story suggests. The muslims can cause all kinds of problems, but they can't actually win unless the West concedes. Events in Denmark (and some of the things the French are quietly doing, too) indicate that some of the Euros are wising up to the Islamic threat.
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
Even Indian demographics are changing and will continue to change for the worse. 80% of Indians are Hindus. The trend of the past decade for Hindu families has been family planning and two kids per family as the new norm. At the same time, the 15% (150 million) muslim population keeps giving birth to tons of kids per family and is slowly increasing its proportion.
It has not yet shifted the 80% vs. 15% balance in a big way. But, a couple of more decades of the same trends would change it.
MSM propoganda compensates for the Islamist IQ gap.
Do you really think in today's MSM world anything affective can be done to reduce the menace?
'After 1945 Europe lost every war it fought, from Indochina, to Algeria to Timor.'
The author must be using the word 'Europe' in it's strictly continental sense, ie not including Britain as we have tended towards winning most of our wars since 1945. . . .
http://www.britains-smallwars.com/
What do you think would be the response in any Muslim capital to army recruiters offering $50,000/an and generous signing bonuses? Ever hear of mercenaries?
Why does the article keep mentioning "SNIP" when discussing fertility rates?
GUNNAR HEINSOHN
Hey, wasn't this guy in a metal-pop band with his twin brother?
Other than fearing some hothead terrorists will blow up Notre Dame or some other equally magnificent Western edifice I worry this may well be the result. And I think it is why the West might be united in trying to stop Iran's nuclear weapons hunt. Otherwise technology would be on our side, perhaps not nuclear but since the muslims seem to be pissed off no matter how we respond, could it eventually come to that? I pray not.
Having babies isn't enough. You've got to train 'em, equip 'em, and get them to the battle (and then supply 'em). Muslim countries don't have the infrastructure to do it. Also, Western nations have overwhelming firepower--this is the great equalizer. While terrorists might harrass us on the fringes, the second they mass for an attack they are toast.
That being said, the demographic trend is worrying. It is directly connected to will to fight. If a family has several sons, they might tolerate losing one or two in a war. If a family has one son (or child), they will move heaven and earth to keep them out of harms way. Also, how many of those 65M fighting age men in Europe (2020) will be Muslims?
Ah, but you're forgetting one thing. In "western nations" the Muslims get a vote and will be able to defeat us at the ballot box. Our only hope is that this generation rejects the notion of having only two children; a belief that unfortunately my generation bought into.
Check it out:
National IQ estimates
Lynn and Vanhanen believe to be the average IQs of the world's nations. Rather than do their own IQ studies (a potentially massive project), the authors average and adjust existing studies.
For most of the 185 nations, no reliable studies are available. In those cases, the authors have used an estimated value by taking averages of the IQs of surrounding nations. For example, the authors arrived at a figure of 84 for El Salvador by averaging their calculations of 79 for Guatemala and 88 for Colombia. Those estimates are not included in the calculations of income differences and do not appear in the table below.
Several cases merit specific attention. To obtain a figure for South Africa, the authors averaged IQ studies done on different ethnic groups, resulting in a figure of 72. The figures for Colombia, Peru and Singapore were arrived at in a similar manner. For People's Republic of China, the authors used a figure of 109.4 for Shanghai and adjusted it down by an arbitrary 6 points because they believed the average across China's rural areas was probably less than that in Shanghai. Another figure from a study done in Beijing was not adjusted downwards. Those two studies formed the resultant score for China (PRC).
To account for the Flynn effect (an increase in IQ scores over time), the authors sometimes adjusted the results of older studies upward by an arbitrary number of points. Because of these arbitrary adjustments and the fact that only limited data were available for most nations, the figures should be considered estimates and can reasonably be expected to vary by several points in either direction.
Country IQ estimate Country IQ estimate Country IQ estimate
Hong Kong (PRC) 107 Russia 96 Fiji 84
South Korea 106 Slovakia 96 Iran 84
Japan 105 Uruguay 96 Marshall Islands 84
Taiwan (ROC) 104 Portugal 95 Puerto Rico (US) 84
Singapore 103 Slovenia 95 Egypt 83
Austria 102 Israel 94 India 81
Germany 102 Romania 94 Ecuador 80
Italy 102 Bulgaria 93 Guatemala 79
Netherlands 102 Ireland 93 Barbados 78
Sweden 101 Greece 92 Nepal 78
Switzerland 101 Malaysia 92 Qatar 78
Belgium 100 Thailand 91 Zambia 77
China (PRC) 100 Croatia 90 Congo-Brazzaville 73
New Zealand 100 Peru 90 Uganda 73
United Kingdom 100 Turkey 90 Jamaica 72
Hungary 99 Indonesia 89 Kenya 72
Poland 99 Suriname 89 South Africa 72
Australia 98 Colombia 89 Sudan 72
Denmark 98 Brazil 87 Tanzania 72
France 98 Iraq 87 Ghana 71
Norway 98 Mexico 87 Nigeria 67
United States 98 Samoa 87 Guinea 66
Canada 97 Tonga 87 Zimbabwe 66
Czech Republic 97 Lebanon 86 Congo-Kinshasa 65
Finland 97 Philippines 86 Sierra Leone 64
Spain 97 Cuba 85 Ethiopia 63
Argentina 96 Morocco 85 Equatorial Guinea 59
Never heard of muslim mercenaries - they are usually called terrorists and lack the military training to make themselves useful in a properly organised force.
Ignorance and prejudices is all that is showing.
Yes. And - lets not forget Germans lost because they had a madman at the helm that led them to a strategic disaster, and had most of the world against them - but by no means because they didn't know how to do it properly.
And, none of those wars were on home soil, fighting for survival. Indochina, Algeria, Timor, who really gave a damn ? Surely they didn't care as much as they cared about liberating themselves in '45. The author underestimates the European ability for warfare. It may not be on the same order as US, but it is nevertheless *far* more than what islamic world could muster. As I said. Europe wrote the book on some things, and it only needs refresh its memory. We can only hope it doesn't come to that.
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