That's cleary less confident than you were a few days ago.
It's a pity that you're allied with Ronnie Earle in trying to get rid of DeLay.
This seems to be the primary argument in favor of DeLay. We should vote for him precisely *because* he has been indicted. That argument still seems very strange to me.
I also think it is unwise for DeLay supporters to attack Campbell supporters. DeLay will need Campbell supporters in the general election. Suggesting that good Republican primary voters are influenced by Soros or Earle is insulting. Why can't they offer a positive reason to vote for DeLay and basically say Campbell is fine, but DeLay is better? DeLay will clearly underperform in the primary. He and his supporters already have a lot of fence mending to do to bring Republicans home for the general. It will be interesting to see what the DeLay Campaign's strategy will be after weeks of insults.
It's not a change of position on my part. I still think he'll win, although I'm allowing for it to possibly require a runoff. Contested primaries are hard to predict when only 13% turnout is expected.
I don't have anything against Campbell. But I don't have anything against DeLay, either, and throwing him out to reward Ronnie Earle seems like asking for more of that in the future.
Campbell was right to file for the office when it wasn't clear what the political situation would be in March. DeLay conceivably could have withdrawn and we need a Republican representing that Republican district.
There's no fence-mending to be done. DeLay hasn't been insulting Campbell that I've seen, and Campbell has no hardcore constituency to be alienated. He's barely known.
Are you predicting that Campbell will finish higher than DeLay on Tuesday? Will he get more than 50%?