New Video, Blanco Saying Levees Safe (Blanco assures Bush, all is well)

In the hectic, confused hours after Hurricane Katrina lashed the Gulf Coast, Louisiana's governor hesitantly but mistakenly assured the Bush administration that New Orleans' protective levees were intact, according to new video obtained by The Associated Press showing briefings that day with federal officials.

"We keep getting reports in some places that maybe water is coming over the levees," Gov. Kathleen Blanco said shortly after noon on Aug. 29, according to the video. "We heard a report unconfirmed, I think, we have not breached the levee. I think we have not breached the levee at this time."

Yeah, I saw that in the opening post and just scratched my head. I have followed all hurricanes online very intensely for the past 7 years, except part of one season, so I am familiar with all the NWS and other NHC info.

I have gone through every archive I can find and there is nothing that matches that report of 9:12 AM on Mon, 8/29. First of all, they were already under a catastrophic storm surge warning, so I can't imagine why there would be a flash flood warning.

All that could be is something issued by the local NWS office in NOLA and there is no way that happened - the power was already out. I have all the advisories issued on Hurr Katrina, some in real time as I copied them and some I even went back and double-checked - additionally, I was checking "public information" and "hydrology" for friends upriver on the Amite and Comite all through the night -- this was life-threatening, you understand -- and I have those flood warnings as well, from the local office on Sunday and into Monday morning.

When I checked the archives at my hurricane forum, they agreed with what I had in my notes. The very first mention of the levees was at midnight Sunday night, 8/28, but it was just a warning about what *could* happen:

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

That language continued throughout the ensuing advisories until 8AM Mon 8/29, when it was changed to read:

STORM SURGE FLOODING
OF 10 TO 15 FEET...NEAR THE TOPS OF THE LEVEES...IS POSSIBLE IN THE
GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA.

On Mon afternoon 8/29 at 2:39PM, Mayor Nagin gave his first press conference and talked about the flooding in St Bernard. A press story about that same time said:

"The National Weather Service reported that a levee broke on the Industrial Canal near the St. Bernard-Orleans parish line, and 3 to 8 feet of flooding was possible. The Industrial Canal is a 5.5-mile waterway that connects the Mississippi River to the Intracoastal Waterway."

I can find no other record of this "NWS report" anywhere and I have all the NWS reports, so possibly this is something the local office told the reporter over the phone or something Mayfield knew about and related to the reporter.

An hour later, 3:30PM Mon 8/29, AP updated and said that Nagin also stated: "Flood waters breeched at least two of the city's crucial flood-control levees, Nagin said, and three pumps failed."

Then there is the official public report on Katrina issued by NOAA which states the levee breaches didn't occur until Tue 8/30, which is the first I show them in the journal notes I was keeping in real time, around 2:30-3AM Tue 8/30:

[From the NOAA report on Katrina]
Sweeping through the delta country southeast of New Orleans, several
small towns were virtually obliterated and Plaquemines and St. Bernard parishes were
devastated. (See Figure 4 for the preliminary US Geological Survey (USGS) stage height of the
Mississippi River at New Orleans). The surge caused the level of Lake Pontchartrain to rise,
straining the levee system protecting New Orleans. Significant failures in the levee system
occurred on August 30 on the 17th Street Canal, Industrial Canal, and London Avenue Canal
levees. Water poured into the city which sits mostly below sea level. Eventually 80 percent of
the city was underwater at depths of up to 20 feet. Though the city was essentially pumped dry
by September 20, the approaching storm surge from Hurricane Rita on September 23 caused a
new breach in the repaired Industrial Canal levee and many of the areas of the city were flooded
again.
[End NOAA report segment]

So, yes, of course the White House knew about the breaches by 6PM on Monday, as everyone did. However, the flooding from the Industrial Canal/Florida Avenue "breach" at the time began as an overtopping by the storm surge directly overflowing the 17-foot seawall at that location.

It could have happened immediately after the first storm winds and wall of water hit that far east location (long before the rest of NOLA) or it could have happened after hours and hours of pounding, which is more likely.

As soon as the breach/break occurred, St Bernard was immediately inundated, as the professor had pointed out in another quote that was posted--but it is not known if the first "breach" that was spoken of was an actual break or simply the failure of the levee to hold back the storm surge, because of its height or because of a break.

We knew throughout the day that a levee or levee(s) had been compromised, but we didn't know how badly or what resulted from it. The next reported break, on the 17th St. Canal, started "small" and then increased in size, until it began flooding even the French Quarter. That one was first reported as having started late Monday morning.

TIMES-PICAYUNE (Nola . com)
Lakeview Levee threatens to inundate city
"A large section of the vital 17th Street Canal levee, where it connects to the brand new "hurricane proof" Old Hammond Highway bridge, gave way late Monday morning in Bucktown after Katrina's fiercest winds were well north. The breach sent a churning sea of water from Lake Pontchartrain coursing across Lakeview and into Mid-City, Carrollton, Gentilly, City Park and neighborhoods farther south and east. ..."

This was the one that couldn't be patched by the sandbagging they were trying to do on Tuesday afternoon.

Again, the flooding didn't become overwhelming until the break(s) were large enough to allow so much overflow as to make the pumps fail. That was the straw that broke the levee's back.

Then the third levee breach that we learned about was actually the first one. That one occurred when the loose barge collided with the concrete wall of the Industrial Canal in the lower 9th Ward. We (public) didn't hear about or see the barge until later in the day Tuesday.

When it was later investigated, it was found that the lockmaster knew the barge was there before dawn on Monday, and the floodwaters began inundating St Bernard and NOLA East around 8 AM Mon 8/29. There were two separate breaches in the Industrial Canal wall, with the barge being connected to only one of them.

On Tue 8/30, 4:30PM, Nagin said: "... there are two major breaks in levees _ one at Florida Ave. in New Orleans East and another on the 17th Street Canal, where two or three blocks of concrete levee blew out. Because of the 17th Street Canal break, Lake Pontchartrain water is pouring down into the city. Nagin said the pumps which normally protect the city are working, but since they send water into the lake it does not good. He said the Corps of Engineers is trying to sandbag the break but he had no timeline for their efforts. ..."

The "real" third breach was the London Avenue Canal breach.

We know now that engineers have said some flooding in central New Orleans came from breaches on the west side of the Industrial Canal, but that those breaches were above sea level and the flooding stopped as Katrina's surge died down Aug. 29, but that the big difference is with 17th Street and London, the breaches opened gaps that were below sea level and continued to drain Lake Pontchartrain until they were closed.

I'm tired of thinking about this right now and need to eat some dinner.

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