Posted on 02/26/2006 12:43:30 PM PST by LdSentinal
Alabama Gov. Bob Riley would beat both of his chief Democratic rivals this fall in head-to-head matchups as he seeks re-election, the results of a new poll suggest.
The Mobile Register-University of South Alabama statewide poll shows the Republican governor leading Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley by 9 percentage points and burying former Gov. Don Siegelman by more than 25 points. Siegelman, whose career has been damaged by recent federal corruption charges, lost to Riley in 2002 by about 3,100 votes.
"It appears, and not unexpectedly, that Bob Riley is the man to beat," said Keith Nicholls, a political science professor and head of USA Polling Group. He noted that it's early in the campaign season and there are significant numbers of undecided voters.
Party primaries will take place June 6, with runoffs, if needed, on June 27. The general election is slated for Nov. 7.
Baxley and Siegelman will meet in the Democratic contest, while Riley will face former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore on the GOP side.
Here's a look at the poll results of the hypothetical matchups:
Riley, 53 percent, vs. Siegelman, 27 percent; Don't know/no answer, 20 percent.
Riley, 45 percent, vs. Baxley, 36 percent; DK/NA, 19 percent.
Moore, 43 percent, vs. Siegelman, 34 percent; DK/NA, 23 percent.
Baxley, 44 percent, vs. Moore, 37 percent; DK/NA, 19 percent. Riley is a full 26 points ahead of Siegelman, but he is only 9 points ahead of Baxley," Nicholls said. "And with 19 percent undecided, he is vulnerable to a strong charge by the lieutenant governor. Whether Baxley is capable of that strong charge remains to be seen. First, of course, she will have to win the Democratic primary."
In a Friday interview, Baxley attributed Riley's showing to the visibility that an incumbent governor almost always gains by handing out state grants, announcing new industries and undertaking other high-profile duties.
"Frankly, I'm surprised his lead is not larger, considering that I've never had that kind of visibility," Baxley said.
Asked how she would overcome that advantage if they both land on the November ballot, Baxley said she trusts voters to see through "political flamboyance."
"I just have to say to the people, 'You know I know this state, you know I know state government' ... and just hope that they see fit to entrust me with bigger duties."
In a statement, Moore campaign spokesman J. Holland dismissed the survey results, noting that Moore handily won a four-way primary race for chief justice in 2000 after trailing in the polls.
"We do not have faith in polls," Holland said. "We have faith in God and the people of Alabama."
In a prepared statement, Siegelman campaign spokesman Chip Hill alluded to what Siegelman, who is currently under federal indictment for alleged corruption stemming from his first term in office, has called a political witch hunt. Given a clear choice, Hill said, voters "will choose permanent tax relief" by electing Siegelman in November.
Riley campaign spokesman Josh Blades declined comment on the survey results.
Earlier this month, Register-USA polls showed Riley beating Moore in the Republican primary and Baxley narrowly ahead of Siegelman in the Democratic tilt.
In the latest survey, Moore did not fare as well as Riley against the Democrats. He led Siegelman, but trailed Baxley.
"Moore is not as strong a candidate in either of the matchups," Nicholls said. "He has only a 9-point lead over a crippled Siegelman and is 7 points behind Baxley. Some have suggested that Moore's poll numbers are artificially low because he has encouraged his supporters not to respond to polls. I don't personally buy this.
"It is extremely unlikely that he could get that word out to enough people and have sufficient numbers heed it to have a significant impact on a sample of 400 statewide."
The new survey of 408 registered likely voters in Alabama was conducted Feb. 18 to Feb. 22. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
"In a matchup against either Baxley or Siegelman, Riley does better among higher-educated, higher-income respondents," Nicholls said. "He also does much better among whites and males. This will give him a significant advantage since these are the groups most likely to give money to candidates and to a certain extent, more likely to turn out at election time.
"Unfortunately for Moore, he doesn't enjoy those same advantages when it comes to matchups with the Democrats," Nicholls said.
Riley and Moore do hold an advantage over the Democrats when it comes to "Christian Right" voters, according to Nicholls.
"Interestingly, however, Riley actually does a little better than Moore among people who have a positive view of the role of Christian fundamentalists in Alabama politics," he said. "I think this is evidence that Moore is just an all-around-weaker candidate."
Moore, widely known as the "Ten Commandments judge," was ousted from the state's highest court after he refused to follow a federal court order to remove a 2½-ton Ten Commandments monument from the state judicial building.
Baxley, the state's first female lieutenant governor, would become its second female governor 40 years after Lurleen Wallace won the job essentially as a stand-in for her term-restricted husband, George Wallace. Baxley won election as state treasurer in 1994, was re-elected in 1998 and captured the lieutenant governor's job four years later.
Besides his 1999-2003 term as the state's chief executive, Siegelman has served as lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state. This is his fourth gubernatorial campaign.
In October, a federal grand jury indicted Siegelman, former HealthSouth Corp. Chairman Richard Scrushy and two former Siegelman Cabinet members, Chief of Staff Paul Hamrick and highway director Mack Roberts. The four men, who have pleaded not guilty, are accused of participating in various criminal schemes involving public corruption.
The trial is scheduled to start May 1. Siegelman has said the charges are an attempt by Republican prosecutors to ruin his political career.
In a separate case in 2004, a federal judge threw out a conspiracy charge against Siegelman and Hamrick, and prosecutors then dropped a remaining fraud charge against the two men. That case, which was not linked to the current accusations, centered on alleged bid-rigging involving state Medicaid contracts.
Respondents in the most recent survey were also asked about the attorney general's race. In that hypothetical fall matchup, Republican incumbent Troy King received 27 percent, while Mobile County District Attorney John Tyson Jr., a Democrat, garnered 25 percent. The remainder of those surveyed, 48 percent, were undecided.
Hopefully Riley's been scared straight and left his tax bonanza folly behind.
Riley hopefully learned from his tax-raising fiasco.
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