Posted on 02/26/2006 10:25:03 AM PST by HostileTerritory
Ohio Sen. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) will be a write-in candidate for Democratic nomination for the 6th Congressional seat and is getting a big endorsement from the man he is hoping to replace, U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland.
Following Wilson's announcement that he will continue his campaign for the office as a Democrat, it was announced that Strickland is backing the Wilson write-in campaign.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesleaderonline.com ...
OH-6 ping.
Interesting. Thanks for the ping! FWIW, I've made some changes to my Dem-seat list a couple days ago.
Toss Up
1 (OH-06) Strickland*
2 (IL-08) Bean
3 (GA-08) Marshall
Lean Democratic
4 (VT-AL) Sanders (I)*
5 (TX-17) Edwards
6 (IA-03) Boswell
Likely Democratic
7 (LA-03) Melancon
8 (UT-02) Matheson
9 (KS-03) Moore
10 (GA-12) Barrow
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (CO-03) Salazar
13 (WA-02) Larsen
14 (WV-01) Mollohan
Watch List
15 (ND-AL) Pomeroy
16 (OH-13) Brown*
17 (NY-27) Higgins
18 (OR-05) Hooley
19 (HI-02) Case*
20 (AR-02) Snyder**
Made even more changes to my GOP list - especially down in the Likely R/Watch List:
Lean Democratic
1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (OH-18) Ney
3 (CO-07) Beauprez*
4 (PA-06) Gerlach
5 (TX-22) DeLay
Toss Up
6 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
7 (NM-01) Wilson
8 (IN-08) Hostettler
9 (IN-09) Sodrel
10 (WI-08) Green*
11 (WA-08) Reichert
12 (CT-04) Shays
Lean Republican
13 (MN-06) Kennedy*
14 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
15 (IL-06) Hyde*
16 (CT-02) Simmons
17 (FL-22) Shaw
18 (OH-15) Pryce
19 (CA-50) Cunningham*
20 (KY-04) Davis
21 (NC-11) Taylor
22 (CA-11) Pombo
Likely Republican
23 (OH-01) Chabot
24 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
25 (CO-04) Musgrave
26 (NC-08) Hayes
27 (PA-07) Weldon
28 (FL-13) Harris*
29 (IN-02) Chocola
30 (VA-02) Drake
31 (PA-10) Sherwood
32 (NY-20) Sweeney
33 (CT-05) Johnson
34 (AZ-01) Renzi
35 (KY-03) Northup
36 (FL-08) Keller
37 (NH-01) Bradley
38 (NV-03) Porter
39 (KY-02) Lewis
40 (WY-AL) Cubin
41 (NY-29) Kuhl
42 (NY-19) Kelly
43 (MN-02) Kline
44 (MT-AL) Rehberg
Watch List
45 (CA-26) Dreier
46 (MN-01) Gutknecht
47 (NJ-07) Ferguson
48 (NY-25) Walsh
49 (WV-02) Capito
50 (NH-02) Bass
51 (IA-02) Leach
52 (NV-02) Gibbons*
53 (PA-04) Hart
54 (CA-45) Bono
55 (OH-02) Schmidt
56 (LA-07) Boustany
57 (FL-16) Foley
What does that equate to in net pickup/loss?
IMHO, I think if the election were held today the GOP would lose a net 7 seats, with a loss of 11 seats as the worse-case scenario (if the election were held today).
The man who wants to be Governor backs the man who can't handle a simple petition to get on the ballot.
Thanks. Now see, that is a straightforward answer to a question with even a statement of sigma, sorta.
BTW, the party in power usually loses seats in the off year election.
OH-6 more likely than not isn't going Pubbie. Wilson will win the write in easily. So I don't agree moving that seat up to toss up. Is Boswell that ill, and is that Pubbie opponent that well funded and top tier?
Ping to Antiguv's list with a lot of thought having gone into it, with perhaps a slight assist, a very slight assist, from moi. This list is so far ahead of the Sabato musings, in every way imaginable, that it is really embarrassing to the University of Virginia. I suspect Sabato is just letting his beta poli sci graduate students do all the work.
The election isn't being held today. Heck, if it were, Ney would win, and by November, he might have plea bargained himself into a cell. One must project to the finish line, to be of any value. I see about a 8-10 Pubbie loss, with 15 possible. But there is a rather large standard deviation around that. We aren't clairvoyant about events.
Speak for yourself. As for me, when it comes to politics, I'm certifiably psycho.
Thanks for the compliment!
With regard to OH-06, I am not yet willing to assume that a campaign which can't handle collecting 50 signatures on a petition will win a write-in vote. That doesn't mean they won't, or even that I don't personally think they will, but simply that I'm not yet willing to assume so.
Moreover, they will have to spend a considerable amount of campaign funds to win the write-in and will lose a couple months of focus on the opposition. Now, if my back were against the wall, and I absolutely had to pick what I thought would happen in Nov., then I would pick the Democrats to hold the seat, because this is OH after all, and I think Ohio will almost certainly be a debacle for the GOP this year.
Now, as for Boswell, the National Journal says that Boswell has been largely MIA for the past several months (due to health issues), both from his congress work and from the district, and that he's been outraised by his GOP opponent in the last quarter. Then, the GOP challenger is former IA Senate President Jeff Lamberti which I would think is top tier. He's easily the best recruit to date against Boswell and is campaigning vigorously for the seat, with the latest Cash on Hand balance: Boswell $658,675; Lamberti $280,235.
All of that adds up to a Lean D, not a Likely D, in my estimation. To put it in the context of my rankings, I think Boswell's prospects are much closer the Chet Edwards than to Charlie Melancon, and so it seems to me the line between Lean & Likely is more properly between Boswell & Melancon than between Edwards & Boswell.
Good..... observation on your part about Ohio Congressman Strickland....at the end of the race on Nov. 8th... please just make sure he remains the man who still wants to be governor...while Ken Blackwell is the Governor of Ohio...Please I plead to all on FR!!
-lbjgal(Secret California Conservative)
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