Iraq isn't Vietnam. There are no organized military units fighting us or the Iraqi government. AQ is largely composed of foreigners and very small in numbers. The insurgents are disaffected Baathists and some other Sunni Arabs. They were the ones oppressing the Sh'ia and Kurds who are the majority. The Baathists must recognize that they are no longer in charge and be part of the solution rather than the problem. Eventually, they will be destroyed if they continue to resist.
The division between the Sh'ia and Sunni is exaggerated and not as stark as some portray. They intermarry and Sunnis are part of the government. The Kurds are Sunnis.
Perhaps you have been there...you sound well-acquainted with the situation on the ground.
My gloomy assessment is that we are close to losing on the home front, just as we lost Viet Nam at home while Gen. Giap was in despair over the military hopenlessness of his situation.
However good the situation is on the ground, American public opinion is at the point where very little alarming news is needed to tip it against the war, IMO.