I think that will be the ultimate result, but currently there are two obstacles: 1) our "ally" Turkey objects strenuously to the idea of a sovereign Kurdistan, as it would likely result in the loss of territory currently controlled by Turkey, and 2) Southern Iraq would be absorbed into a greater Persia, which is currently controlled by a madman.
That is the way I see it, too. And that is a ~dismal~ prospect.
If we do not have the stomach for the long go (and I don't think we do) the wreckage is going to be enormous. The things you said plus the general chaos in the M.E., the emboldening of Islamo facisits everywhere, and, at home, a bloodletting among conservatives and devastation at the polls. I am only hanging in with the war because the pain of a backdown there will be calamitous.
2) Southern Iraq would be absorbed into a greater Persia, which is currently controlled by a madman.
The Sh'ia Iraqis are Arabs and have a different culture, language, and history from the Persians. Any "absorption" would have to done by force and that won't happen.