If the Orca wants her heiney to lose the Iowa primary, she will lose the Iowa primary.
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It will be fabulous theater, no matter who comes out on top. I think the Orca only has a few fights left in him. He did not seem to be served well by his staff in the hearings for Alito. I am speculating that competent staff are moving on to better positions in dem offices, and he will become progressively less powerful.
Orca is running unopposed for his senate seat.