Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH). Speaking for myself, Bob Ney is on his way out. Word has it, he's going to be indicted. His district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority.
Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN). It's true, Hostettler has faced several very different Democrats and always come out on top. He's never faced one as popular as Evansville Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. A poll taken a few months back showed Ellsworth slightly ahead.
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA). Gerlach has won two elections by 51% to 49% in a district that was specifically designed to elect him. Wealthy Lois Murphy is running again in a more favorable political climate.
Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). Simmons has won two difficult reelections in a district that usually votes for Democrats. Ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney is running again. But Simmons has made no mistakes, so Courtney's chances hinge on a major Democrat victory, something which is not guaranteed.
Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM). The first female veteran to serve in Congress, Wilson represents a very marginal district. She has won by increasing margins over the years, but faces her toughest opponent yet in state Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Anything can happen.
Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT). RINO Shays was nearly defeated by Westport Mayor Diane Farrell last time, and she's back for a rematch. The disctrict is trending to the left politically, and while Shays is liberal on domestic issues, his strong support for Bush's foreign policy has angered the moonbat left, which is a presence in this area.
Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN). In 2004, the wealthy Sordel very narrowly unseated Democrat Baron Hill. Hill is seeking to make a comeback. But Hill had the advantages of incumbency last time, and won't this year.
Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL). Longtime Congressman Shaw has a following here going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale. He remains personally popular but his district is Democrat and becoming more so. State Senate Minority Leader Robert Klein is heavily funded.
Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL). Bean made national news in 2004 when she ousted a jaded, over-complacent incumbent. She is a top GOP target and will face a tough race against the winner of a crowded priamry.
I agree with pretty much everything you said here.
I do think that both Shayes and Simmons will be helped by the fact that Rell will win in a huge landslide.
>Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). Simmons has won two difficult reelections in a district that usually votes for Democrats. Ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney is running again. But Simmons has made no mistakes, so Courtney's chances hinge on a major Democrat victory, something which is not guaranteed.
Rob Simmons is rock solid guy. Former Senior CIA field officer. Great guy.
texans don't vote for independants, they get like .0000001 percent of the vote here.
Oh, BTW, I think Sodrel will trouce Hill. Hill's really been a jackass since losing his seat, which he should never have had anyway.
And with few exceptions, incumbents who seek to reclaim old seats rarely win them back.
It would be a shame to lose Clay Shaw. He's been a good representative for my district. It seems like he's in danger every cycle but still manages to pull out a win.
So they are pulling a Ross Perot on Delay in Texas?
Biased is a fair description of the list. Where the hell are such Democrat incumbents occupying GOP-leaning (or are just generally troubled) in districts such as:
Vic Snyder (AR-3), far too liberal for his Little Rock seat.
John Salazar (CO-3), brother of liberal Sen. Ken, sitting in a GOP district because of a internecine GOP primary battle in '04 and poor showing of the party overall.
Allen Boyd (FL-2), now a GOP-leaning panhandle district.
Jim Marshall (GA-8), whom most reasonable individuals expect to lose former Rep. Mac Collins in a reconfigured heavily GOP district.
John Barrow (GA-12), expected to face a tight rematch against ex-Rep. Max Burns in a reconfigured GOP-leaning district.
Dennis Moore (KS-3), always in jeopardy due to it being a GOP district.
Ben Chandler (KY-6), sits in a GOP district that he won in a special over a weak GOP candidate.
Bill Jefferson (LA-2), yes, I'm putting him on there because with the current demographics of New Orleans and a potential criminal conviction, we could make a play for the seat.
Charlie Melancon (LA-3), sits in a GOP district that he won because of a brutal GOP battle. His GOP opponent, Craig Romero, has unified support.
Bennie Thompson (MS-2), a bit iffy, but he faces an ugly primary challenge, and if he emerges, and if our party ponies up the $$, Yvonne Brown could provide a potential upset.
Tim Bishop (NY-1), Steve Israel (NY-2), Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4), despite erosion of the Long Island GOP, a strong well-funded challenge to any of the 3 could put the seats back in our column where they were prior to the '90s.
Bob Etheridge (NC-2), sitting in a seat far too GOP for a liberal, but has faced no strong challenges since he upset the incumbent one-term GOPer in '96.
Brad Miller (NC-13), a gerrymandered seat for the 'Rats, but one still carried by Dubya. The GOP should find a decent candidate to take him on.
Earl Pomeroy (ND-At Large), a perennial target in a state that is heavily GOP but hasn't elected one in 26 years.
Darlene Hooley (OR-5), also a perennial target in a GOP district. Oregon remains overrepresented by Democrats at the federal House level.
John Murtha (PA-12), yes, THAT guy. His district may lean 'Rat, but it ain't of the pinko anti-American kind. Surely SOME well-funded GOP challenger can step up and take this disgusting terrorist-loving pig out of his seat. After all, this seat WAS GOP before he won it.
Tim Holden (PA-17), not a nut like Murtha, but a Republican should be occupying this seat.
John Spratt (SC-5), too liberal for his seat and has escaped strong challengers for a dozen years. No Democrat should still be holding any office in SC but the 6th (and hopefully we'll do something about that in the next 10 years, too).
Stephanie Herseth (SD-At Large), she's cute, but she's too liberal for the state and a Republican belongs here (thanks a lot, Bill Janklow).
Lincoln Davis (TN-4), more like Holden of PA, but this Republican district needs to send one (we're overrepresented with 'Rats due to gerrymandering in TN). Van Hilleary should be challenging him.
Bart Gordon (TN-6), the 'Rats protected him with gerrymandering, but he is a relic in an area that becomes more and more GOP by the day in the suburban counties around Nashville.
Chet Edwards (TX-17), a slick liberal 'Rat who needs to be bounced from this heavily GOP district.
Jim Matheson (UT-2), a Democrat -- in UTAH ? C'mon, guys !
Rick Boucher (VA-9), this district should be sending a Republican, and Boucher has been in office nearly a quarter-century, he needs to go.
Rick Larsen (WA-2), should be a district we can strongly challenge in a margin area with a well-funded candidate. It's been 12 years since we snatched back a seat for the GOP in WA state.
Alan Mollohan (WV-1), WV continues to move more and more towards the GOP, and a growing farm team for the party in the legislature spells trouble for long-term incumbents like Mollohan. State Del. Chris Wakim is challenging him this time, the first viable GOP challenger he has faced since his first election in 1982.
Nick Rahall (WV-3), although still historically 'Rat, he has been in for 30 years, and faces the same trouble at the grass roots that Mollohan does. He is likely facing the Cabell County (Huntington) Sheriff and Vietnam War Veteran Kim Wolfe.
David Obey (WI-7), in the name of Melvin Laird, this district ought be brought back after 37 years of this despicable turd to the GOP.
I think Ney's safe. He still enjoys considerable support from the base, and the local Dems can't seem to find a legitimate challenger...
The candidate likely to win the Dem primary is former congressman Nick Lampson; a bigger crook than DeLay could ever be!
Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority.
"Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority."
Nah. I've met Steve Stockman. He is a nice guy to sit down and have a drink with, but no one takes him seriously as a candidate. Especially in DeLay's district. DeLay will win at least 55% of the vote. My bet is that it will be more. Lamson has his own ethics problems. Stockman will get 2% or less -- mostly from the kamikaze conservatives.
CF, I don't think more than 1-3 of the districts you mentioned will change hands in 2006:
"Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH). Speaking for myself, Bob Ney is on his way out. Word has it, he's going to be indicted. His district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so."