Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)
He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalwire.com ...
FWIW I think Wilson is history and that Simmons will more likely eke it out. Otherwise we are in agreement.
PS. I would put Marshall on the list in place of Shaw.
I don't want to fight that argument in this thread, it ends up going nowhere. We'll have to agree to disagree.
Why is Capito just vulnerable to "the way the economy goes" in West Virginia?
You make a good point. Jim Marshall should be on the list. Or perhaps Rothenberg should have made a larger list.
The Shaw thing is weird. Why do you think Wilson is history? She has shown staying power against some tough challengers, and seems effective, and I don't think New Mexico is in the eye of the anti Bush storm. What am I missing?
Marshall is surely the single-most endangered Democrat incumbent, bar none. I think Barrow is toast, too. The one thing I have to see, however, is how much $$ the challengers are raising. We can talk up great candidates all we want, but if they're not coming close to matching the incumbents in the $$ department, they can forget about it (there are some exceptions to the rule, of course). Of course, even if the Democrats win back the House (that's more likely than the Senate), it'll be as brief control as the Senate was following the Jeffords apostasy. The #1 agenda of the Congressional Democrats is Impeachment. I don't care how high Dubya's negatives allegedly are (and I believe his approval is at least at 50%, not 40%), the support for Impeachment amongst the general public is only coming from the moonbat fringe. If 2006 is 1946 in reverse for the Democrats, we always have 2008 (as the new 1948-in-reverse) to look forward to.
Antiguv, how much money does Collins have in the bank right now?
It can't help Marshall nor Barrow with Perdue leading by 20 points.
I don't know, but I guarantee he will be financially competitive. Mac Collins's campaign tack is that he is running AS the incumbent.
These are the funraising totals through 31 Dec 2005.
Marshall Raised: $773,678
Collins Raised: $704,220
Marshall Cash on Hand: $858,986
Collins Cash on Hand: $543,491
Mac Collins is comeptitive financially. Have any polls been released on that race?
I am still waiting for your Heather Wilson funeral oration.
With regard to Wilson, she won in 2004 with 54.4% against a second-tier opponent. She now has a top-tier opponent who at the least should've held Wilson to 51% or 52% if this were the 2004 landscape, and might've even won. In a year that looks likely to favor Democrats, I think Madrid will beat Wilson in a Dem-leaning district.
4% pro Kerry is rather marginal to call the Pubbie GOP incumbent history, who won by 8%. Plus Wilson is not a deer in the headlights type. Meanwhile, Simmons won by the same margin in a pro Kerry 8% district, closer to the center of the anti GOP swing area. What am I missing?
Wilson needs to aggressively target Madrid for having her head buried up her a$$ with all these New Mexico Democrat scandals. She seems more interested in running for federal office than doing her job as state Attorney-General.
Simmons is facing the same candidate that he beat in 2002. You know I take a dim view of retreads. ;)
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