Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)
He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalwire.com ...
I noticed that about Maloney's district, but my advice to the Republican challenging her -- save your money. Maloney is, of course, a major-league moonbat, but if the district ever comes open, we'd have to run an ultraliberal RINO in the mode of the late Bill Green (who held it until '92 when it was still the legendary "Silk Stocking" district). Green lost it, ironically, because he couldn't make an appeal to social Conservative voters after it was redistricted (as if Maloney was any better !). I believe Green had the distinction of occupying THE most anti-Reagan district (with a Republican Rep) in the nation.
Yes, I am assuming that Ney will be indicted or that his situation will otherwise get worse in terms of the scandal, because that appears the most likely development at this time. If the Abramoff tempest blows over with Ney exonerated then I'll have no problem moving the race back down.
All signs in the Abramoff filings are pointing toward prospective indictments, and Ney is the #1 target for indictment. My only pause is that this is ordinarily a strong GOP district (57% Bush) but the inherent partisan lean is getting undermined by far too many factors to ignore (Ney's role in the Abramoff scandal; the toxic environment for the OH GOP; the plunging approval ratings for Bush; and a conservative Dem challenger who'll be fully funded).
I wouldn't shed tears if Shays lost.
Explaining my odd "ironic" term was that Green was ostensibly more Conservative than Maloney, but yet she still carried those areas that were the most Socially Conservative.
PS. When I mention the Bush approval ratings I mean specific to Ohio.
I don't buy those "plunging" approval ratings for Bush. I think the polls are clearly overpolling anti-Bush partisans by at least 10%. The media pushes those disingenuous polls for the sole purpose of making them come true, it's disgusting. My take is that he is at or around 50% nationwide (varying from state to state, of course), not the ludicrous 40%.
Actually, "plunging" wouldn't be the right term to describe that. The plunge took place months ago according to SUSA, and now the Bush #s in Ohio have just been stable.
Louisiana is historically incumbent friendly. But a substantial portion of southern Louisiana's population has moved away, which puts everything in doubt. The old rules don't apply now.
William Jefferson holds the most Democratic seat in the South. Bush took 23.79% of the vote in LA-02. Even if Jefferson gets indicted, the filing deadline is not until August 11.
PS. And even more importantly, at this time there is no declared or potential GOP candidate at all. No matter what happens to Jefferson or how the New Orleans demographic has changed because of Katrina, you cannot win a seat without running a nominee...
Congressman Dennis Moore is being challenged by state Representative Scott Schwab and banker Chuck Ahner.
Fine I heard the GOP candidate's speech. It was about how the first duty of a congressman is to bring home pork....
Like we need another one of those...
I totally agree with you. I'm just not willing to speculate on what shape the doubt will take. Once that becomes clearer, I will reconsider the race. What would be nice is a poll, even a partisan poll, to give some inkling of whether the electorate has changed.
Although southern Louisiana was of course ground zero for Katrina, the really hard-hit regions were either sparsely populated (e.g., Plaquemines Parish, which is politically inconsequential) or not in Melancon's district (e.g., New Orleans). Now, I don't know how the rebuilding has progressed in LA-03, but outside the urban centers I would think things are more or less back to normal in terms of population. My guess is St Bernard Parish is probably the only area with any significant population that might factor into the political equation.
And finally, from what I've gathered, Melancon's role in the whole Katrina mess was well-received.
"Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority."
Nah. I've met Steve Stockman. He is a nice guy to sit down and have a drink with, but no one takes him seriously as a candidate. Especially in DeLay's district. DeLay will win at least 55% of the vote. My bet is that it will be more. Lamson has his own ethics problems. Stockman will get 2% or less -- mostly from the kamikaze conservatives.
The majority of the damage went to LA-01 and LA-02, so I don't know how much Katrina will alter the overall demographics of the district. I imagine the impact would be minimal there. Since LA-03 was not as badly damaged, voters might pay attention to other issues, though I would agree that Melancon was one of the few that did not come out looking bad (unlike Blanco and Nagin).
There are genuine vulnerablities that Romero can hit on in Melancon's record. Melancon is a class warfare politician that votes against tax cuts and building oil refineries if it benefits "the rich." He is defintely no Billy Tauzin.
St Bernard was conservative, indeed racist (David Duke carried it for governor, the only Parish he did carry) and it is empty. The folks still in the area moved across the lake to St. Tammany, which is out of the district. Melancon is probably helped by the disparate damage in the district.
Really? I did not know that. Thanks for the info! I had presumed on the basis of that mentally unstable sherriff that was on the TV shows after Katrina that St. Bernard leaned Dem. If it is instead staunch conservative, to me that definitely suggests Katrina improved the electorate for Melancon.
Note that I was careful in my wording above not to indicate which direction the doubt may go in LA-03, because in my thinking it could go either way. It had occurred to me that suburbs, especially in the South, tend to be firmly GOP, and that the parts of LA-03 that seemed as if they would be affected by Katrina were suburban, and so that if anything a population shift seemed more likely to help than hurt Melancon.
For the time-being, I will continue to rate LA-03 as if Katrina didn't happen.
You just described the whole state. Sebelius is unopposed to date, Kline is facing a fairly serious opponent, and Moore is congressman for as long as he wants.
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