Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Peggy Wilson is a nightmare. She runs as a Republican b/c she lives in Lakeview (the only GOP stronghold) and her base is old blue haired ladies in the Garden District. She reminds me of a female southern version of Michael Bloomberg. Her politics are mish mash of policies that sort of favor rich people but are genelly just meant to screw up your average person's day.
Her radio spots for mayor are excellent and well produced. It's a stinging indictment of Nagin. Nonetheless, there are two excellent conservative candidates for Mayor. Rob COuhig, who is a great guy but has no chance and Ron Forman who was raised a substantial amount of money and should make the runoff against Mitch Landrieu.
I wouldn't be shocked for Couhig to use the Mayor's race to get some name recognition and then take on Jefferson.
How do you figure Pombo's in trouble (even with a more serious candidate), anyhow ? That district was drawn to corral all the Republicans in that area into one seat.
I read that Couhig's running the first TV commercials in that race.
Yeah, you confirmed my worries about Peggy Wilson. It really was a shame that Nagin bombed out as he did, I thought his election as a DINO would be a positive turning point in New Orleans, and it was... until the hurricane swept away his mind. It seems like Wilson could just as easily be a Caucasian Nagin. Is Ron Forman a Democrat ? I'd truly hate to see a runoff that was between Nagin and Landrieu (and at this point, Nagin's $$ can still keep him viable as a candidate).
Bush carried the district by 7%, and Pombo has Abramoff rumors, including yipping on the floor defending some Abramoff client in legal trouble (I don't remember the details) and says odd things, too close to the SF metro area (in fact a part of the district juts right into some of those high income RINO precincts I was talking about). A credible Dem with money would drop him.
No one is quite sure. His campaign seems to be using the playbook from Nagin's 02 win. Position yourself as businessman who is going to get things done and streamline government. In 02 Republicans were told to vote for Nagin, regardless of his party affiliation. Nevertheless, Nagin has been abysmal failure as mayor. His first six months were quite impressive but after that he fizzled out and Katrina (although I can't blame him for the week of Aug 29) exposed his naviete.
I'd truly hate to see a runoff that was between Nagin and Landrieu (and at this point, Nagin's $$ can still keep him viable as a candidate).
At this time, I'd say that Nagin in the runoff is highly unlikely. The blacks never liked him and the whites now hate him. He has no political base.
The runoff should be Forman versus Landrieu.
I still wouldn't worry about that seat too much. The Democrats are overrepresented in the US House delegation in California as it is. I wish we could target Ellen Tauscher, at the very least. I still don't understand why Bill Baker didn't attempt a comeback in '98.
Katrina exposed more than just his naivete, but perhaps his "personal" habits. We know he was drinking, but I'd say if the man wasn't also on drugs, I'd eat my hat.
I read that Foreman was a Democrat, who switched to the Republicans, but then switched back to being a Democrat again.
The Baker district doesn't exist anymore.
That would be par for the course. Do you know the dates of the switch?
One of the things I didn't like about Nagin in 02 and now Forman is how the local media portrays them as businessmen. Nagin was a cable executive for Cox, the main decisions were made in Atlanta. He was manager. Forman, admittedly has a more polished resume. When I first moved here the Audubon Zoo was a disaster. He turned it into a fabulous attraction and added may be the best Aquarium in the world to the fold.
However, I consider a business man to be someone who takes a risk with the idea of seeking a return commiserate with the risk. In Forman's case he works for non-profit. In Nagin's case, he worked for a monopoly and had no strategic decision making power.
Of course, this is New Orleans where an independent funeral home is considered big business.
One other little detail. You pull up the precincts in the SF metro area, and to find the Bush precincts takes work. He lost almost all of them, in Santa Clara County, San Mateo County (Bush lost them all except for about ten precincts in Atherton and Hillsborough, and lost a majority of them even in those super rich areas), Alameda County (almost all except a few inland over the mountains), SF County (all there of course), Marin County (all there too), Contra Costa County ( most of them). Anything that gets too near to the SF metro area is toxic city for Pubbies. The erosion there has been massive for the GOP. Ditto Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, and going north up the coast is a disaster too (Sonoma, Mendecino), until you get to Del Norte County, a lumberjack area, adjacent to Oregon.
I'd meant to ask you about Pombo when we briefly discussed the House races last week, but it slipped my mind. I have him down in Likely GOP, which right now is as follows:
Likely Republican
23 (OH-01) Chabot
24 (CO-04) Musgrave
25 (NC-08) Hayes
26 (PA-07) Weldon
27 (FL-13) Harris*
28 (IN-02) Chocola
29 (AZ-01) Renzi
30 (CA-11) Pombo
31 (PA-10) Sherwood
32 (KY-02) Lewis
33 (NY-20) Sweeney
34 (CT-05) Johnson
35 (KY-03) Northup
36 (CA-26) Dreier
37 (FL-08) Keller
38 (NV-03) Porter
39 (MT-AL) Rehberg
40 (NY-29) Kuhl
41 (NH-02) Bass
42 (NY-19) Kelly
43 (WY-AL) Cubin
You mentioned before that you would rate the Pombo race Lean rather than Likely and I was wondering why. I don't know of anything that's changed since, say, a couple months ago to merit that, but I may very well have missed something!
I can't even imagine the GOP or Dubya bothering with anything in the Black Hole of the Bay Area. It's hard to believe that area was once one of the most stalwart GOP areas in the nation, before going into freefall after the late '50s (I mean, even SF had a GOP Congressman, Bill Mailliard, as late as 1974), and now it's not only fallen to the Democrats (and in some of the upper coastal counties, went to the Greens), but I would cease to even classify these areas as pro-American anymore. I think it's going to take a disaster of biblical proportions to take it back from the clutches of darkness.
Pombo leaked some confidential prosector stuff on the House floor for an Abramoff client who gave him money to interfere with the effect of interfering with the investigation of same. So I read in the Wall Street Journal. Maybe the Dems were asleep at the switch.
Oh! I did not know that. I rather doubt the Dems were asleep at the switch on that one. Just because I didn't know about it hardly indicates that. LOL
Hmm. Lemme go read up on that. I'll let you know in a few if I'm moving Pombo.
Yep, I've moved Pombo to #22, and would move him higher if not for his substantial money advantage as of Dec 31.
Lean Democratic
1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (OH-18) Ney
3 (CO-07) Beauprez*
4 (PA-06) Gerlach
5 (TX-22) DeLay
Toss Up
6 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
7 (NM-01) Wilson
8 (IN-08) Hostettler
9 (IN-09) Sodrel
10 (WI-08) Green*
11 (WA-08) Reichert
12 (CT-04) Shays
Lean Republican
13 (MN-06) Kennedy*
14 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
15 (IL-06) Hyde*
16 (CT-02) Simmons
17 (FL-22) Shaw
18 (OH-15) Pryce
19 (CA-50) Cunningham*
20 (KY-04) Davis
21 (NC-11) Taylor
22 (CA-11) Pombo
23 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
PS. It's worth noting which of the above ratings I'm most ambivalent about. I wonder whether I have both Shays & Simmons too low. I think I may have the open Cunningham seat too low.
I am extremely ambivalent about the Davis seat (KY-04). My impulse is to rate it lower, but a partisan Dem poll gave Lucas a 10% lead, which would actually suggest to me that it's about even, in which case I have it too low rather than too high. So, who really knows? Not me..
And I'm very close to moving the open Bilirakis seat to Likely rather than Lean.
bttt
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