No one is quite sure. His campaign seems to be using the playbook from Nagin's 02 win. Position yourself as businessman who is going to get things done and streamline government. In 02 Republicans were told to vote for Nagin, regardless of his party affiliation. Nevertheless, Nagin has been abysmal failure as mayor. His first six months were quite impressive but after that he fizzled out and Katrina (although I can't blame him for the week of Aug 29) exposed his naviete.
I'd truly hate to see a runoff that was between Nagin and Landrieu (and at this point, Nagin's $$ can still keep him viable as a candidate).
At this time, I'd say that Nagin in the runoff is highly unlikely. The blacks never liked him and the whites now hate him. He has no political base.
The runoff should be Forman versus Landrieu.
Katrina exposed more than just his naivete, but perhaps his "personal" habits. We know he was drinking, but I'd say if the man wasn't also on drugs, I'd eat my hat.
I read that Foreman was a Democrat, who switched to the Republicans, but then switched back to being a Democrat again.