Posted on 02/15/2006 7:12:58 AM PST by grundle
"Obviously, people will focus on people who win," said John Allen Paulos, a Temple University mathematician. "All the same dumb sticks who did the same thing [and lost] are invisible."
Author of a bestselling book, "Innumeracy," Paulos says lotteries have always owed their appeal to people's loose grip of math.
Paulos recalled a line from Voltaire: "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity."
Paulos once tore up a Powerball ticket on the eve of a drawing in front of an audience. "They all gasped as if I just slashed the Mona Lisa," he said.
To a mathematician, the lottery is a game where those who don't play have essentially the same odds of winning as those who do -- none.
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
My Dad always said, "You only have to be lucky ONCE."
And you have to play to win. I play the Powerball every week.
Wrong. However, the odds of you sharing it with anyone are lower.
Good one!
I'm stealing it!
Thanks.
Yes, but off by an amount so small. . .
Hey, I need a new transit system. Why don't you buy yourself a ticket!
"Actually when the jackpots get over $300 million it mathematically makes sense to play. A winning ticket would net you $100 million or so, while the odds are about 87 million to 1. Add up all the other chances to win prizes and it becomes a really good bet."
Read the entire article again. The $300m in present worth, because it is paid over time is $145m. The probability that there could be multiple winners decreases the return to $112m. The chances of winning is 1 in 146m. So you are still at a loser bet.
I'm sick of these poo-poo'ers of the lottery.
Yeah.. I could put 5 bucks in my bank.
Yeah.. I could get a McDonalds meal.
Yeah.. I could buy 2 RedBulls.
Yeah.. I could put 2 gallons in my Hummer.
Yada Yada.
And, yeah, I know it's a chance in hell.
But as was stated already--- someone wins.
It's a chance, it's fun, it's a dream, it's entertainment.
And as to it being a "tax on stupidity", well, Considering the bulk of MANDATORY taxes are stupid.. there is no meat to that argument.
I usually don't play, but when the jackpot is 250 million I figure hey why not. It isn't likely that I win, but it's impossible if I don't play.
And if you win a $25 million lottery, you can save a mere $3 million easily.
25,000,000 * .5 (lump sum payment penalty) = 12,500,000
12,500,000 * .55 (percent left after taxes) = 6,875,000
Meaning you can blow $3,875,000 dollars and still have a steady $66,000 a year after taxes for the rest of your life.
Sorry I didn't show all my math.
"It's a chance, it's fun, it's a dream, it's entertainment."
Cheaper than a movie, and usually worth more. LOL.
(Hey! I'm quoting myself:p)
"the odds of you sharing it with anyone are lower."
You don't know my inlaws!
:)
No you said chances are 100% that some one will eventually win, that's not the case. Now as the jackpot grows and more people play each week a higher percentage of the 146 million possible outcomes are taken the possibility that someone MIGHT win goes up, and eventually it becomes more likely that someone that someone will win than not. But only if all 146 million possible outcomes are taken is it 100% that someone will win. As long as there are some possible outcomes not selected each week there's always the possibility of no winners, that's how the jackpots grow, from the regular supply of weeks with no winners.
No there are many millions of losers, all the people that bought tickets and won nothing in all the weeks necessary to build this jackpot are losers.
Or a cheap fantasy.
The odds of winning have absolutely ZERO to do with how many people are playing. It's all based the odds of picking the right numbers, which would be exactly the same if yours was the only ticket purchased.
Don't misunderstand me from my earlier comments. I like lotteries. "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity." If a significant amount goes to tax collection, I enjoy letting having those in that category pay the taxes. :)
He then finished his presentation off with the caveat...you have just as much chance of winning as the person who will win.
"So his math is a little off."
Your chance of winning is statistically insignificant. I can safely predict that no matter what I do, whether I buy no lotto tickets, one a day, or 100 day, that I will never win the lottery.
Reminds me of card-playing example: Take a deck of cards, shuffle it well and randomly. You can then confidently say that no one has ever, in the history of the world, created a deck of cards in the same order as the one you are holding in your hand. Since the odds of creating a specific order for an entire deck of cards is about 1 in 8 × 10 to the 67th, the odds that ANYONE has EVER shuffled a deck to that exact combination are utterly statistically insignificant. Sort of like me ever winning the lotto.
1. Buy a $5 Lottery Ticket...or
2. Donate $5 to the Democrat National Committee?
ping
This guy is all wet. The odds are 50-50. I'll win or I won't.
The factor here is that when the jackpot grows higher, more tickets sell, increasing the chances of it having to be split up into smaller pieces. So the higher the prize, the less valuable the expected value of a winning ticket.
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