To: USF
I now see where you and I may differ, and why our proposed plans (call my references to Saudi "phase one") reflect this.
1. Essentially, I would like to move on a faster time frame to take on the center of the ideology itself and to get what I see as an inevitable conflict going now rather than later
From Sun Tzus The Art of War: To be certain to take what you attack, attack where the enemy cannot defend
To refrain from attacking an army drawn up in calm and confident array:--this is the art of studying circumstances.
My objection to your strategy (timing) is that unless, and until, the Saudi government faces a debilitating, internal conflict, any external military offensive would take too long. Such a delay would allow Islamist forces outside of Saudi Arabia to counter attack via terroristic means as well as conventional military means in other regions as part of a global jihad. Additionally, other international, military confrontation calculus must be factored into this equation as well. Furthermore, as I have noted earlier the negative impact on the global economy may be greater than either the US or our allies can tolerate.
Your position that it is better to bite the bullet now rather than later is valid only if there is no better alternative. Among our allies, Europe and Japan, probably would not share the view that there is no better alternative and would, most likely, react accordingly. Additionally, and, perhaps more importantly from an international strategy perspective, a world economic calamity would involve our non-Islamic strategic competitors, such as China and our enemies such as North Korea. These potential negatives must be accounted for and potentially neutralized, either politically or militarily, in advance. Your strategy has not dealt with these potentialities.
2. The very real possibility of the KSA and Saud rule imploding due to it's own "deal with the devil" getting out of hand together with it's rapidly changing demographics (my #108) needs to be addressed and planned for.
No argument. However, planning for the eventuality and moving to effect it are two different things. Again, as I have noted earlier, I do not think that the US has the capability to clandestinely orchestrate such an effort for several reasons.
To: Lucky Dog; USF
Now that this thread is slipping under the radar, I'd like to ask you two for your knowledge and opinions on Russian involvement in the Middle East.
The Soviets had many of these countries as client states, and the Russian Federation has continued to supply arms to Middle Eastern countries.
Putin seems to have thrown his hand in with Syria and Iran. Certain evidence point to Primakov (covert in civilian mode) taking the WMD out of Iraq into Syria and Lebanon and some out the back door to be dumped in the Indian Ocean just before our invasion in 2003.
At the conference on the Saddam tapes this past weekend, Jack Straw said the Bush administration does not want the knowledge of what happened to the WMD to be followed up or "proven." He felt there was some greater issue involved that led the administration to undermine efforts to get the story out on this issue.
Russia allied with the Caspian oil and Middle Eastern oil against the United States is a formidable opponent. Russia disassembling her nukes under treaty with the U.S. yet keeping caches in Middle East countries is a formidable player. The situation with Iran getting nukes is mind bogglingly serious. IMO, because of these issues the United States in not in any position now or the near future to call out the Russians on their support of Syria and Iran, and their attempts to forge alliances in the Middle East against us. And thus we are not in a position to confront Syria and Iran in a meaningful way right now (with the Russian shadow protecting them), and we'll be in a worse position when Iran becomes armed with nukes that can be delivered to U.S. soil, if they aren't already, leaving our only hope in an internal revolution by the young against the Mullahs.
I have conjectured that in joining forces with Islamic radicals the Russians are riding a tiger that will consume them, too.
Others I talked with have said Russia and China even are not real players in future history, which seems to me to be an incredibly naive view.
I'd appreciate discussion by both of you about the strategy and role of Russia concerning the threat to us in the Middle East from Islam.
166 posted on
02/21/2006 2:51:31 PM PST by
patriciaruth
(http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1562436/posts)
To: Lucky Dog
There is much similarity of what you say about warning them, giving them time, allies etc.. to the pre-invasioon scenario of Iraq.
I simply don't think we can ignore the threat of ever expanding islamic expansion and ideology emanating from the KSA.... not even for the next two decades for the multitudes of reason given.
Bite the bullet
Good summary. Stop them ASAP, by any of the above means, rather than put it off and letting them increase their influence and power.
169 posted on
02/21/2006 5:16:29 PM PST by
USF
(I see your Jihad and raise you a Crusade ™ © ®)
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