The Wrong Man in Iraq

NY Times ^ | February 14, 2006

[jmc1969]

In selecting al-Jaafari as its nominee for a second term, the dominant Shiite bloc has betrayed the hopes of all those who have wanted Iraq's first constitutionally elected government to make a fresh start at reunifying the country, rebuilding the economy and putting an end to the beating, torture and murder of civilians by Shiite militia members in and out of the official security forces.

Jaafari has been a spectacular failure on all these fronts over the past 10 months. He is unlikely to do a better job if he gets the job a second time, particularly since he owes his selection to a political deal with Moktada al-Sadr.

The Mahdi Army controls the Shiite slums of Baghdad and, with allies, controls the slums of Basra as well, imposing fundamentalist Islamic mores, Taliban style, on those deemed insufficiently devout.

Sadr's spokesman has already made it clear that the price for those votes will be support for Sadr's political program, which includes solidarity with the anti-American governments of Iran and Syria and has inspired Mahdi Army attacks on American and British troops.

Jaafari's nomination by the Shiite bloc is not quite tantamount to his election by the new Parliament. By itself, the bloc controls only 130 of Parliament's 275 seats, while a two-thirds majority is required to approve the new prime minister and the cabinet.

That gives important leverage to the Kurds, with just over 50 seats, and to various Sunni Arabs and independents. Ideally, these groups will use their leverage to ease out Jaafari. The very least they should do is to counteract Sadr's destructive and growing influence.

Sixty-four votes, half of them loyal to Mr. Sadr, won Mr. Jaafari this nomination. That is less than one-quarter of the new Parliament. Democracy does not require confirming him as prime minister.

[God luvs America]

if the Slimes is against it you know it's the right choice!

[jmc1969]

If the Slimes say Sadr is bad he must be good?

[TheCrusader]

"In selecting al-Jaafari as its nominee for a second term, the dominant Shiite bloc has betrayed the hopes of all those who have wanted Iraq's first constitutionally elected government to make a fresh start at reunifying the country"

Yeah, they "betrayed" the Sunni Saddamites and insurgency types that oppressed and massacred the Shiites for decades. Sounds like the Slimes is a little aggitated that democracy is working in Iraq.

[piasa]

Jaafari is not Sadr.

[jmc1969]

Sadr is allied with the Saddamists, Syria, and Iran.

The Sunni population isn't simply the dregs of the Saddamites anymore then the Shia are all Sadrists.

Jaafari (who is a weak man anyway) is going to be forced to go along with Sadr's program or Sadr could select a new PM, that is the problem.

Sadr has to be checked politically and the Interior Ministery is the one place that it will matter most that we do it.

[jmc1969]

Read above.

[TheCrusader]

"If the Slimes say Sadr is bad he must be good?"

I don't think they said they were against Sadr. They just said he was a bad guy who's p-o'd that Jafarri won and now he's going to align himself against the U.S., (as though he were on our side anyway). Sounds to me like the Slimes are saying the Shiite majority should have backed down in the face of terror and threats by Sadr.

[tomahawk]

Sadr should have been taken out two years ago, but he wasn't.

So now the price we will have to pay because of this Iran agent will be higher.

If we follow the same pattern with the Iranian Mullahs (accommodation rather than what must be done), we can say goodbye to New York City.

[OkiMusashi]

Didn't read it.

Lemme guess:

The (soon-to-be-bankrupt) New York Times says that "it'll never work".

[jmc1969]

The choice was between Adel Mahdi a religious Shia who lived in Iran and London who is actually quite bright, but like Jaafari is a weak man and the other choice was Jaafari.

Both were deeply religious Shia, but the deep fear is that Jaafari now owes way too much to Sadr, because he made a last minute political safe of Jaafari's political future.

The UIA wasn't voting for PM, they were selecting within their own party who they will nominate for PM.

[piasa]

Sadr supported al Jaafari because the alternative was a guy more popular among his enemies the Sunnis, who had a lot of privileges under Saddam Hussein. He thinks of them as being the Baathists who murdered his father.

[roses of sharon]

They had another editorial waiting to trash Mahdi, the other guy!

The bathhouse boys of the NYT are so predicable.

[SevenMinusOne]

al-Sadr is the most over-hyped street thug in all the world. A person who is given much more imaginary power and influence in theory then the grade school drop out comes close to having in real life.

[jmc1969]

Abu-Adel Madhi isn't more popular with the Baathists.

Sunnis prefer Jaafari in some ways in that he is a member of the only one of three main UIA groups that have their own militia. His is disliked by them in a way in that they see him as an ineffective leader and he hasn't forced the militias out of the police force.

Sadr supported Jaafari because Jaafari paid for a half a million dollar Mercedes for Sadr and Jaafari got rid of the evidence and standing indictment against Sadr for killing another Shia cleric in 2003.

http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=3193

[jmc1969]

Here is what Omar at ITM had to say about it. IMHO if we get the Interior we still could be in decient shape.

---

The United Iraqi Alliance...Isn't really that united.

As expected, the UIA's decision to choose Jafari to become the new Prime Minister has caused a feeling of disappointment and in some cases serious worries among the rest of the blocs.

The first and strongest reaction came as early as last night from Jalal Talbani who was clearly upset by the result of the vote and said that "refusing the participation of the Iraqi list is just like refusing the participation of the Kurdish alliance…I tell those who say that the participation of the Iraqi list is a redline that to us, not giving the Iraqi list a role is a redline".

As you may already know, the Sadrists in the UIA who are supporting Jafari have publicly voiced their opposition to giving the Iraqi list a role in the new government, Baha al-Aaraji said on al-Hurra TV today that they "have nothing against the members of the Iraqi list but we are against Dr. Allawi in person…".

I personally think that the certain parties in the UIA have pushed things to the edge by insisting on Jafari while they know very well that all of the other blocs would be displeased by this decision.

Actually I believe that the unity of the UIA itself is on edge after this vote; the leaders of the bloc insist the decision to resort to voting does not undermine the unity of the UIA but I think it is very obvious that when 63 members voted for one guy and the other 64 voted for another it indicates serious divisions inside the bloc whose name (the United….) doesn't seem to fit anymore!
By the way, I don't know if you have noticed this or not, but Risaliyoon who are a small Sadrist bloc took part in the voting despite the fact that they're officially not members of the UIA which makes one stop to think about how much power the Sadrists really have inside the UIA.

I agree that it is theoretically their right to vote in the way they deem best for them but doing this at this critical point of Iraq's history indicates serious shortsightedness because they know that this would no doubt complicate the process of forming the government.
The power to make decisions must not be concentrated in one hand, that's what everyone agrees on, including the UIA, yet they have allowed themselves to do this by ignoring the other political powers and insisting on choosing Jafari and apparently those who voted for Jafari have no idea of what their choice can bring upon them and upon Iraq.

Right now, it seems that there's an inclination among the Kurds to vote against Jafari when he proposes his cabinet, and it is also very expected that the Iraqi list will do the same especially that the conflict with the UIA in general and the Sadrists is going on the personal level now.

This leaves the UIA with only two options to try if they want Jafari's cabinet to win the trust of the parliament: a) Use the relatively good relationship between Jafari and the Accord Front to persuade the Accord Front to split from its alliance with Allawi and al-Mutlaq and this way they will get the 51% they need. Or b) Make some huge concessions to the Kurds by offering them greater representation in the cabinet and accelerating the implementation of article 58 concerning the Kurds' rights in Kirkuk.

Both options are not impossible to do but the current mood indicates that the UIA is going to face a very tough task trying to work out a solution.

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/

[MinuteGal]

So the Slimes has this guy down as a failure already. Their editors must be reading chicken entrails again for their prognosis.

Wasn't it the Slimes that told the world that Fiden Castro was going to be the saviour of Cuba, the hope of that country's future and the new breath of freedom for the Cubanos? Hmmmmm. Wrong.

I hope that this potential new Iraqi PM not only proves the Slimes wrong again, but that he rises to the occasion and becomes a great leader in Iraq's path to freedom and democracy.

I love to see the Slimes forced to eat road kill over and over.

Leni

[jmc1969]

This isn't a new PM, this is the current PM.

And, he hasn't been voted in yet, considering how much the other parties including the Kurds think he is worthless and the UIA itself is split about him they could vote him down.

[jmc1969]

Khalilzad isn't against Jaafari as PM as long as he gets to pick the Interior Ministery and he is also trying to put in two strong deputy PMs behind Jaafari. So, alot remains to be seen.

[Rembrandt]

"if the Slimes is against it you know it's the right choice!"

I use the same test when I get ready to vote here in Sarasota using one of the two local commie fishwrappers as my bizarro guide.