Bird flu only two mutations away from deadly form: expert

ABC.com.au ^ | February 11th, 2006

[Termite_Commander]

You can never have enough cowbell, my friend.

[Shery]

"Also, because of the risk of "cytokine storms" associated with the virus, it can easily kill young, healthy adults, not primarily children and the elderly like most annual flu strains do."

This is the pattern with this virus...that it strikes the healthy young adolescent and adults more than those normally considered 'fragile or defenseless', as in the regular flu, which attacks the very young and very old the hardest.

[festus]

Well, Oprah had a one hour show about H5N1.............




LOL Dude you're citing Oprah ??? That's rich.

I knew someone let the door of the moonbat cave open again.

We are all going to die. Its a fact. Get used to it and relax. Maybe have a beer. There's no point in panic after every Oprah show. It won't help any.

[Jim Noble]

it's just too close to a pandemic virus right now to think it won't make the needed additional mutations.

First of all, these mutations are random. It is much more likely that any random mutation will be harmful to the virus.

Secondly, while you are waiting for mutations at these two loci, remember that all the other gene loci are subject to similar frequencies of random mutation. So, even if your "pandemic" mutations happen, it is unlikely that the rest of the virus will remain stable waiting for them to happen.

[Salamander]

There is nothing in this life that a little "MORE COWBELL!" can't help....:D

[festus]

It won't help. Who could hear a cowbell over the shrieks of "WERE ALL GONNA DIE ........."

But its a good thought

[Salamander]

"There's no point in panic after every Oprah show. It won't help any."

It helps her ratings/income.
[not that I suspect any *connection*, mind you. that's just a coincidence, I'm sure]....;]

[Termite_Commander]

Festus, I didn't start panicking because I saw an Oprah show. I didn't even watch the thing. I'm pointing out a blatant contradiction in the idea that all this is "Media Hype". I've been following H5N1 for over two years now.

We are all going to die. Its a fact. Get used to it and relax. Maybe have a beer. There's no point in panic after every Oprah show. It won't help any.

Who exactly is panicking? Oh, I am because I'm posting something you disagree with. Right.

[Termite_Commander]

First of all, these mutations are random. It is much more likely that any random mutation will be harmful to the virus.

And so the mutant strain will not become dominant, and the virus will continue guessing. Every mutation that takes place doesn't stick. Even mutations that are beneficial sometimes don't catch on.

Secondly, while you are waiting for mutations at these two loci, remember that all the other gene loci are subject to similar frequencies of random mutation. So, even if your "pandemic" mutations happen, it is unlikely that the rest of the virus will remain stable waiting for them to happen.

True. But whether changes on any of the other proteins affect the transmissibility or lethality is also unknown.

[From many - one.]

Festus seems to be a hit-and-run poster and unable to back up his position.

[Salamander]

............;]

[grey_whiskers]

Finally, I hate to say this but, it is likely that the poor and minorities will be hardest hit, especially in countries in africa and the middle east and india where hygiene and medical care are questionable.

I've got a GREAT idea for a NY Times headline, now that you mention it...

Cheers!

[CodeToad]

"Keep in mind that this is the head of the UN's H5N1 program; not some random nut raving that we're all going to die."


The fact that he is the head of a program that lives on public funds means he IS suspect. What is a better way to get more money than to sound the alarm??

If he has proof that is agreeable to the scientific community, then I'd believe the guy without question.

[demoRat watcher]

Only two mutations away? Well I hope it will hurry up and mutate so that my Roche stock goes through the roof.