Bird flu only two mutations away from deadly form: expert

ABC.com.au ^ | February 11th, 2006

[Termite_Commander]

The bird flu virus is only two mutations away from a form that can spread easily between people, sparking a pandemic in which millions could die, the UN bird flu chief said in an interview published in Portugal.

"Only two mutations are needed for it to become easily transmissible among humans," Dr David Nabarro, who heads the UN drive to contain the virus, told weekly newspaper Expresso.

"I wake up every morning thinking that today could be the day that I will see a report about a strange case of bird flu among humans," he said.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed tens of millions of birds since 2003 and there have been at least 165 confirmed cases of the strain spreading to humans, causing about 90 deaths, mostly in Asia.

The virus has spread from Asia to eastern Europe and Nigeria this week reported Africa's first known outbreak of the deadly strain of the disease.

Experts have long warned that the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted by humans and spark a global pandemic potentially killing millions.

Dr Nabarro said he has told governments around the world to prepare for the arrival of a human-to-human strain of the virus "as if this will happen tomorrow."

In 1918, an influenza pandemic that is believed to have originated in birds killed more than 40 million people around the world.

Subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 had lower death rates but still caused widespread disruption.

[Termite_Commander]

Well, in under a year, we've gone from it needing eight mutations, to five, to three, and now we're down to two. The virus has gone from only existing in Southeast Asia to being in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

If you can still sit down and say this is nothing to worry about, you're ignoring the facts.

Keep in mind that this is the head of the UN's H5N1 program; not some random nut raving that we're all going to die. Dr. Nabarro has been very conservative about this threat. Besides, he probably knows what he's talking about.

Naysayers attack in 3... 2... 1...

[Termite_Commander]

On a side note, the person who wrote the headline should be smacked. The virus already is "deadly".

[staytrue]

If you can still sit down and say this is nothing to worry about, you're ignoring the facts.

Just for argument's sake, let's look at the SARS epidemic.

SARS is very deadly, maybe more deadly than bird flu. It is very contagious, maybe more contagious than flu. It spreads via human to human contact. And in the end, it caused a major temporary hit to the hong kong economy, and that was about it.

Finally, I hate to say this but, it is likely that the poor and minorities will be hardest hit, especially in countries in africa and the middle east and india where hygiene and medical care are questionable.

[robertpaulsen]

"The bird flu virus is only two mutations away ..."

Uh-huh. And I was only two numbers away from $56m in the state lotto.

I thought mutations took millions of years. Should I worry?

[Screamname]

It`s all Bushs fault.

"Sure sure! Everything is MY fault! Sheesh!"

[Termite_Commander]

From what we've seen in Turkey, H5N1 has a mortality rate of 25%, though it's probably a little bit less. There were three deaths out of 12 cases. SARS mortality rate was 10%, give or take a couple percent.

It did spread from human to human, but hosts to the virus were not infectious until they started showing symptoms. H5N1 is not like that. Also, a study found that people sick with H5N1 cough out up to 10 times more virus than people with an annual influenza strain. A similar study found that lab mice needed to be exposed to 1000 particles of H1N1 to be infected, while those mice only had to be exposed to 10 particles of H5N1 to get sick.

Influenza is a completely different breed of virus. It behaves different. It's endemic in wild birds in some parts of Asia. Migratory birds are carrying it everywhere.

I agree that poor and more impoverished countries will be hit harder, but not too much harder. We may be the most advanced country in the world, but we still have some very nasty flu seasons. And that's with vaccines available to the public. Also, because of the risk of "cytokine storms" associated with the virus, it can easily kill young, healthy adults, not primarily children and the elderly like most annual flu strains do.

[Termite_Commander]

I thought mutations took millions of years.

No, they don't. From the time it took migratory birds to fly from Russia to Ukraine, they picked up a mutation. And by the way, with the lottery, you don't have trillions of tickets (individual virus) to play with. Also, when you get a number right with the lottery, it probably won't be right the next time. With H5N1, every "number" it guesses clicks into place, and it goes for the next mutation.

[Screamname]

"Only two mutations are needed for it to become easily transmissible among humans,"

How many mutations for it to just kill Muslims who flip out over cartoons?

[Termite_Commander]

Haven't you heard? There's some Syrian publication saying that H5N1 is an Israeli bioweapon.

THE JOOOOOS DID IT!

[festus]

Worrying does no good.

This bird flu sky is falling we're all gonna die crowd is on the payroll of the flu vaccine makers somehow. I guarentee it.

[Termite_Commander]

Oh, still six, but maybe we could help it along a little...

>=)

[Termite_Commander]

What's it going to take for you to drop the conspiracy line and actually look at the problem?

[staytrue]

Uh-huh. And I was only two numbers away from $56m in the state lotto.

Yeah but did you buy 1 million tickets which is about how many viruses are inside and infected human.

[Flavius]

[Screamname]

Are you kidding? It figures! It`s starts in Asia but they point the finger to the Jooos. Actually they probably point it to Israel or Bush or both just like liberals do about everything which is why liberals relate so much to terrorists.

[Altair333]

The virus finds it very hard to spread human to human because in its present form it burrows deep within lung tissue. That's what makes it so deadly when you get it, but also makes it harder to spread.

When and if a pandemic strikes, it will very likely be in a mutated form which is less likely to kill an individual victim, but which can spread more easily from person to person.

The big question is: how deadly and how easily spread? That will determine whether this is a catastrophic pandemic or not. But some form of HN51 pandemic is pretty much a forgone conclusion- it's just too close to a pandemic virus right now to think it won't make the needed additional mutations.

[Termite_Commander]

Syrian Paper Blames Israel for Bird Flu

[Altair333]

"What's it going to take for you to drop the conspiracy line and actually look at the problem?"

You obviously didn't get the memo- being a conservative requires you to automatically dismiss any information suggesting either that a bird flu pandemic will strike or that global warming is real.

[festus]

It will take 40 more handwringing posts.

That or turning into a real problem as opposed to a potential problem.

If we worry about things that might go wrong I've got global warming, giant asteroids, hillary getting elected, and Y2K.

And FWIW capitalism isn't a conspiracy theory.

[Termite_Commander]

The virus finds it very hard to spread human to human because in its present form it burrows deep within lung tissue. That's what makes it so deadly when you get it, but also makes it harder to spread.

Precisely. There was a mutation in Turkey that allowed the virus to replicate higher up the the human respiratory system, but there's some doubt that it actually caught on. It looks like the version of the virus with a mutation at "223" isn't the one currently spreading into Africa.