Posted on 02/10/2006 10:58:54 AM PST by Rutles4Ever
If Syrian President Bashar Assad continues to feel threatened by the United States and the rest of the international community, he may be pushed into a corner and decide to fire missiles at Israel, senior IDF officers from Northern Command warned this week.
According to a report released late last year by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Syria had an estimated 45 missile launchers and had probably assembled a few Scud D rockets with a range of nearly 700 kilometers - a major threat to Israel because they can be armed with chemical warheads. Last June, Israeli military sources confirmed that Syria had test-fired three Scud missiles, despite Damascus's denials.
While Israel's border with Syria has been quiet since 1973, the military's working assumption is that Israel's next war will be on the northern front against Syria and Lebanon.
Israel, the IDF officers said, did not foresee a war with Syria in the near future and had not noticed any changes in Syrian military deployment along the northern border. But Assad's handling of diplomatic affairs has the IDF worried.
Syria has been facing numerous pressures in recent months, including the UN investigation into the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri that implicated Syrian Intelligence, and the criticism voiced against the regime by former top Syrian officials.
"We are watching and following Syria very closely, since the missile possibility exists," a senior officer told The Jerusalem Post. "Assad might decide to copy Saddam Hussein and attack Israel if the pressure on him escalates." Saddam fired missiles at Israel during the Gulf War in 1991.
For now, the officer said, the IDF did not see a reason to change its military deployment along the Syrian border. "We haven't changed anything," the officer said. "But we are staying alert and using our intelligence services to stay on top of anything that might happen in Syria that could have an impact on Israel."
While the Syrian border is quiet, Damascus has been behind attacks against Israel carried out by its proxy - Hizbullah - on Israeli military outposts in the North. According to intelligence assessments, the Hizbullah attack on an IDF position in the northern village of Ghajar in November was per Damascus's request. The IDF has put its forces along the Lebanese border on heightened alert to offset any attempts by Hizbullah to stir up tensions.
In December, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz publicly declared, "Syrian attempts to divert attention away from the country may result in heightened Hizbullah activity in the North."
"Assad is trying to relieve the pressure," one officer said this week. "Hizbullah carries out the attack, steals the world's attention, and the pressure is relieved."
Analysts cast doubt on the possibility that Assad would launch a missile strike against Israel, saying that if he did, it would definitely serve a death blow to his regime.
"Getting into a shooting match with Israel would not help his situation," said Dr. Mark Heller, a senior research associate at the Jaffee Center.
Yiftah Shapir, a former IDF Intelligence officer and a senior researcher at the Jaffee Center, backed up Heller and claimed that while Syria was armed with Scud missiles, they were not meant to be used in an attack on Israel but to serve as a deterrent to an Israeli attack and to balance the military powers in the region.
"No one can accurately predict what Assad has in his head and what he will do," Shapir said. "Technically, he has the power to launch missiles if he wants to, but the possibility is slim."
But if Assad were to make such a "mistake," Shapir said, "he knows Israel's capabilities, and if a Scud falls here, Israel will respond fiercely."
Man, I don't even think that discussion would be necessary. Russians and the Chinese would be *thrilled* to be rid of the islamists that are inciting issues in their countries (as well). They'd just call to negotiate as to which areas they get. Probably even offer to "test" some of their own ballistics.
Suicide by SCUD?
Right. So, why do we have to go through all this foreplay?
Arab/Muslim.
Somewhat like the Balkans in the days leading up the WW-I. In other ways like central Europe, oh heck all of Europe, in the decade leading up to WW-II.
If he keeps threatening Israel, we should nuke Iran. teehee
It will be the last thing he ever does on earth.
He probably won't, but wouldn't it be nice if he did?
Then Israel could whack him and his regime.
A few flights of F-117s could disabuse them of that notion in a single evening. They'd never know, although they'd suspect, what hit them. Bombs would just start falling out of the sky one night. And not all that many bombs either. A dozen or so could do the job. (At two per F-117). Or we could use the B-2, and then that couple of flights becomes a half dozen or so aircraft.
It also equates Saddam firing scuds during GW1 with an unprovoked attack by Syria on Israel.
Yes. I was just thinking about that, with Iran playing at Brinksmanship...and we could be on the verge of a grave mis-step...albeit we may not have many good choices in response to their challenge.
We need to find some way to steer clear of handing the whole region to the likes of Osama.
Ha ha do it, you inbred psycho. The Arabs always lose in wars with Israel.
Bush's fault. He kicked over the sand castle in their sandbox.
Oh, I forgot to say, I admire him for it.
ROFLCOPTERS!!!!
Why then is Putin hosting the Chief Terrorist of Hamas?
Kathleen Parker had a good column this week musing about how funny it would be if the end of the world came about as the result of a cartoon.
So right Capitalist.
Did you hear Glenn Beck Yesterday?
He absolutely nailed it. This whole Cartoon thing is all about Assad and the UN's investigation of him, his brother and 5 henchmen in regards to the Lebanon Assassination. Also Iran is about to come under fire for the Uranium., Some Imam kinda like Pat Robertson got this whole mess started on Al-Jeezra after they were unable to shop this thing for months in the various hot spot countries.
All in about a month when a Danish Ambassador who be be elevated to the head of the Security Council!
March will be interesting, there are those that have been saying watch Israel in March (ergo action against Iran) and now possibly this, You may be right, the wheels may be about to come off the bus....
Wow. That had escaped my attention. You are right.
This cannot be mere coincidence...and Assad's bloody fingerprints are all over this.
Actually, that's probably one of the most telling statements made by the Muslims in a long time.
That statement is exactly what one says when they have kidnapped an innocent, and is threatening/extorting their loved ones.
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