Herbert E. Meyer: Take Out the Mullahs – Tonight

The American Thinker ^ | February 7th, 2006 | Herbert E. Meyer

[Tolik]

To think clearly about the looming crisis with Iran, close your eyes and imagine that you’re standing outside your children’s school. It’s 2:55pm, and you’re chatting amiably with other parents while waiting for the 3pm bell to ring.  Suddenly you see a man running toward the school, holding a hand grenade and shouting: “I hate kids.  I welcome death.”

Now, what do you propose to do?

One option is to engage your fellow parents in a dialogue about the serious and complex questions raised by the running man with the grenade.

For instance, you might try to calculate precisely how long it will take him to reach the school.  When he does reach the school, will he stop or go inside?  If he does go inside, will he run toward the basement, or toward the auditorium where the third and fourth grades have been brought to watch a video?  (It’s probably about “safe sex” – but what the schools teach our kids is another subject for another day.)  Is the hand grenade real, or might it be a fake?  If the grenade is real, does the man really know how to pull the pin?  And if he does, how big will be blast radius be and what’s the potential number of casualties?

And why is the man doing this?  Is he really a vicious killer?  Or is he a harmless but mentally disturbed individual who didn’t take his medication today and slipped out of the house without being noticed by his wife?  Or is this just a case of a well-meaning but very misguided protester who’s mad at the Bush administration for not signing the Kyoto accords, or who’s upset because dolphins are still getting caught in tuna nets?  Oh, and is it possible that in addition to the hand grenade he’s got a gun inside his coat pocket?

Should you try to talk with the man?  Or would it be better to notify the school’s principal, and perhaps suggest he call the police?

And remember—while you and your fellow parents debate all this, the distance between the man holding the grenade and your kids is narrowing.

The Option to Act

Your other option is to take the man down – now, this minute, however you can – and to sort out the mess later.

If you go for this option, it’s because you believe that anyone who runs toward a school with what appears to be a live grenade while shouting “I hate kids.  I welcome death” forfeits all rights to a cautious, comprehensive inquiry about his motives and real capabilities.  If it turns out that the grenade was a fake, or that the man is a harmless nut who really wouldn’t hurt a fly – too bad.  And if the man or his family sues you or the school district for injury or wrongful death – so what.

If you choose this option, it’s because you understand that when someone puts your children’s lives at risk, the instinct for survival trumps the analytic process.  Take too long to think, and you may lose the opportunity to act – and it’s impossible to accurately project when this line will be crossed until you’re already over it.

Okay, now let’s turn our attention to Iran.

The country is led by individuals who are proven, ruthless killers.  Several of them – most especially the country’s president, Mahmoud Amadinejad – are visibly insane.  They have launched huge programs to develop nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them, and Iran has both the money and talent to pull it off.  They have pledged to wipe at least one country off the map – Israel—and they don’t like us, either.

In response, our diplomats are fanning out to engage our allies in “frank and comprehensive” consultations about the looming, potential crisis.  They are even struggling mightily to bring non-allies including France, Russia and China into the dialogue.  Our State Department is “cautiously optimistic” that the issue will eventually be brought to the U.N. Security Council.

Meanwhile, members of Congress are demanding to know how much time we have before it will be too late to act.  Just last week the Director of National Intelligence, John Negroponte, testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee that in the judgment of our country’s intelligence experts, Iran “probably” hasn’t yet built a bomb or gotten its hands on enough fissile material to build one.  Over in Vienna the International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that it will be several years, at least, before Iran’s mullahs have a nuke.

What Can We Do?

Based on public comments by officials of the Bush Administration and of various European and Asian governments, there are four options on the table for dealing with Iran:  First, do nothing since Iran won’t actually have nukes for several years – and hope that the mullahs really aren’t serious about using them.  Second, engage the mullahs diplomatically in hopes of dissuading them from pursuing their present course.  Third, help trigger a revolution by providing as much covert support as possible to those within Iran – students and a growing range of worker organizations, for example – who are already demonstrating against their hated regime.  And fourth, launch a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities to destroy, or at least delay, that country’s weapons programs.

Alas, none of these options is any good.  The first is feckless, and the second is hopeless.  The third – helping support a revolution – is terrific, but even under the best possible circumstances would take a long time to bear fruit.  And the fourth option – taking out the nuclear facilities with military force – is extraordinarily difficult to execute, runs the real risk of igniting a political explosion throughout the Moslem world, and in any case it isn’t imminent.

Meanwhile, with each day that passes the distance between Iran’s mullahs and nuclear weapons is narrowing.  And remember:  Take too long to think, and you may lose the opportunity to act – and it’s impossible to accurately project when this line will be crossed until you’re already over it.

Indeed, we may already be over the line.  While it may be correct, as Director Negroponte has testified, that Iran “probably” hasn’t yet built a bomb or gotten its hands on enough fissile material to build one—it also may not be correct.  Given our intelligence community’s recent track record, it would be foolhardy to place much confidence in this judgment.  Generally, countries trying to build nuclear weapons succeed sooner rather than later – usually to the great surprise of Western intelligence services.  And isn’t it possible that Iran already has a bomb or two that it bought rather than built itself?  When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991 there were the so-called “loose nukes” that the Soviet military wasn’t able to account for.  Make a list of those countries with the money and desire to get its hands on one of these weapons – and Iran tops the list.

It Isn’t Only Nukes

Most worrisome, while everyone in Washington is focusing on nuclear weapons, no one has uttered so much as a peep about the possibility that Iran may be developing chemical or biological weapons.  These weapons are far less costly than nuclear weapons, and the technology required to develop them is more widely available.  And since a cupful of anthrax or botulism is enough to kill 100,000 people, our ability to detect these weapons is – zilch.  So why wouldn’t the mullahs in Teheran order the development of chemical and biological weapons?  If they really do plan to wipe Israel – or us – off the map, these will do the job just as well as nukes.  And if reports are true that Saddam Hussein had such weapons before the war and shipped them out to Syria and Iran before we attacked in 2003 – then the mullahs already have stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.

Simply put, Iran’s nuclear weapons program, combined with the murderous comments of that country’s president, is the political equivalent of a man running toward your children’s school holding a hand grenade and shouting “I hate kids.  I welcome death.”  The risk of taking time—to think, to talk, to analyze, to co-ordinate with other countries – is just too high.  We know where Amadinejad and the mullahs work, and we ought to know where they live.  (And if we don’t know, the Israelis do and would be more than happy to lend a hand.)  We have cruise missiles, Stealth fighters, and B-1 bombers that can fly from the US to Teheran, drop their lethal loads, then return to the US without ever landing en route.  We have skilled, courageous Special Forces teams that can get themselves on the ground in Teheran quietly and fast. 

The question is whether we still have within us the instinct for survival.  If we do, then our only course is to act – now, this minute, however we can – and to take out the mullahs.  Tonight.

Herbert E. Meyer served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council.  His DVD on The Siege of Western Civilization  has become an international best-seller.

[GOPJ]

These weapons are far less costly than nuclear weapons, and the technology required to develop them is more widely available. And since a cupful of anthrax or botulism is enough to kill 100,000 people, our ability to detect these weapons is – zilch. So why wouldn't the mullahs in Teheran order the development of chemical and biological weapons? If they really do plan to wipe Israel – or us – off the map, these will do the job just as well as nukes.

My guess is it'll be nukes for Israel, and bios for us. They want to minimize the damage done to themselves. Here's what they don't understand. Some of those countries that seem like friends -- China, North Korea, Cuba -- Pakistan - some of those folks are going to flood in during the aftermath chaos and take over the oil fields. And yeah, it'll be easy. If Iran was smart, they'd pull back from the brink.

[Outland]

"Shoot first and ask questions later."

Sadly, in our usual manner, we'll wait for them to shoot first and then we'll be asking questions later. And then someone will blame Bush.

[RightWhale]

The Mullahs aren't running at us with nukes

Yes, they are.

[geezerwheezer]

Your questions are really succinct. I wish I knew the answers to them, but I feel that we Americans have already given up on the rest of the world, and we all suffer more and more because of it. When our national press is stabbing each of us in the back, the world telling us we are not worthy of a darn thing, when our own people say we are greedy, warmongering, and selfish, it does make you wonder. The great American pride has been shot all to hell and back, and it looks like a lot of dark days ahead, until you realize we are the beacon of democracy, freedom, and liberty. We may not be perfect as a nation, and we might allow idiots like Jimmy Carter, Ted Kennedy, etc., say the nasty things they say, and we just might be arrogant too! But you must realize this one thing...you are an American, and you don't have to kiss anyone's a$$, you can do what you want, and you are the envy of the rest of the world. Be proud, and if "they" don't like it, feel free to tell them to shove it.

[Jhohanna]

you are an American, and you don't have to kiss anyone's a$$, you can do what you want, and you are the envy of the rest of the world. Be proud, and if "they" don't like it, feel free to tell them to shove it.

*muuuuuuwah*! :x Thank you ... I remember this every day that I get up to go to work in the morning. And I remember the sacrifices that my loved ones both alive and dead made for these freedoms that the Left, Press, and idiotas all take so much for granted.

In all of that, I also see my DUTY and my HONOR to serve this country, represent Her proudly, and SHINE as that beacon of freedom, justice and liberty! And to show the rest of the neysayers, Dems and Wingnuts of all parties included, that we are a Good, Free, and Proud People. I am that light on top of a hill, just like so many of my fellow Americans, and I could never ever darken that shine with the dark thoughts and hatred perpetuated by the likes of Howard Dean Party.

And I'm exercising that freedom and power of economic choice and purchasing another FORD. As opposed to some Japanese or Korean made car.... so what if 3 of the last 4 Fords I bought died on me. :P I'm still an American girl with leaded in my veins. And I'm challenging my friends and fellow Americans to do the same. Put your money where your mouth is... BUY AMERICAN!

Sadly enough... they all subscribe to the Hilary Clinton School of Analytic Thinking, and wouldn't dare buy American because Japanese and Chinese products are so much better! *gack*

[Eighth Square]

It's really academic, because no US politician will risk the furor that is sure to follow, when either the mullahs start dropping or the sites are taken out with a pe-empt. I am afraid the West is doomed to be on the receiving end of the initial strike, then at least with Bush & Company at the helm, we will blow 'em off the map. In the mean time, we had better hang on to our tin hats.

Not so with the Israelis, however. IMO

[Cementjungle]

Now, what do you propose to do?

Write a letter to your editor complaining about how your rights are being trashed by the government spying on you, then sue the governent for not doing enough to protect us.

[Former Proud Canadian]

bump

[Former Proud Canadian]

With all respect due a fellow freeper, I don't think you understand the depth of the problem. Iran is led by a certifiable religious fanatic whose goal is to precipitate the apocalypse, thereby hastening the arrival of the 12th Madhi (whatever that is) and the triumph of islam. I'm not kidding.

You are attributing western values like rationality to an irrational regime. They are not going to pull back from the brink. They want to go over the brink asap and take us with them.

[GOPJ]

GOPJ to Trident/Delta
On News/Activism ^ 02/06/2006 5:41:16 PM EST · 17 of 29 ^

I think Ahmadinejad believes the the Twelfth Iman is here now. His delusion, if that's what it is, has taken on a "real" feel. He's acting as if he knows it's happening. Why would that be unless he has met the person he believes to be the one. Is that possible?


The Hojjatieh have always believed that the 12th Imam walks the earth. that he is a timeless being that is being "hidden" by Allah until the appropriate level of chaos on earth is underway and the Mahadi steps forth to calm all. The Hojjatieh believe that they can stir up emough hate and discontent to force this to happen. Semper Intell



Iranian Alert - February 6, 2006 - Iran says will teach attackers a lesson ^
  Posted by GOPJ to Trident/Delta
On News/Activism ^ 02/06/2006 6:04:31 PM EST · 19 of 29 ^

The Hojjatieh have always believed that the 12th Imam walks the earth. that he is a timeless being that is being "hidden" by Allah until the appropriate level of chaos on earth is underway and the Mahadi steps forth to calm all. Just a few more questions - is the Mahdi a human who becomes inhabited by the spirit of the 12 Iman? The Mahdi is supposed to be a direct descendant of Mohammed and have a broad nose. It sounds like the person is born, lives here and is overcome by the spirit of the Mahdi... is that close?


by Trident/Delta to GOPJ
On News/Activism ^ 02/06/2006 9:29:25 PM EST · 22 of 29 ^

Very close. The "spirit" of the Mahdi is "secreted" into the soul of a common human. At the appropriate time, the spirit if the Mahdi will "rise" to assume the body of the "host" (yes, I KNOW it sounds like a bad episode of StarGate). The soul of the host will go to Allah, (you know, 72 Virgins et.al.)I had deliberately left out the nose part. What you didn't mention was the Upper Nile connection. (Popular consensus is that the Mahadi will arise as a black African. You just can't make this stuff up!) Iran has already been making quiet overatures to Zimbabwe and Chad. The Islamic presence on the dark continent has been growing diametrically.This is going to get more and more interesting.Semper Fi


Trident/Delta to GOPJ
On News/Activism ^ 02/07/2006 12:07:35 AM EST · 26 of 29 ^

It is part of the Hojjatieh belief system. Each sect has its own views on the Mahdi. For example, the Sunnis believe that:According to the reported sayings of the Prophet Muhammad some of the features of al-Mahdi are:

* He will be tall
* He will be fair complexioned
* His facial features will be similar to those of the Prophet Muhammad
* His character will be like that of the Prophet Muhammad
* His father's name will be Abdullah [same as Prophet Muhammad's father]
* His mother's name will be Aamina [same as Prophet Muhammad's mother]
* He will speak with a slight stutter
* He will occasionally hit his hand upon his thigh when he stutters
* His age at the time of his emergence will be forty years
* He will born in medina (literally a city or township)
* He will receive Knowledge from Allah


The Wahabbis have an altogether different view. I left out Hojjetiah features because some Freeper will grab the characteristics from one of the other sects and miss the whole point.

The primary point is the belief that if enough chaos is generated, the 12th Imam will emerge.

Semper Fi

[Former Proud Canadian]

OK, you know all about it. Scary isn't it?

So when do you think the MSM will start to disseminate this little tidbit?

[nopardons]

bttt

[GOPJ]

OK, you know all about it. Scary isn't it? So when do you think the MSM will start to disseminate this little tidbit?

It is scary. They're coming from a place we don't understand and have lost the ability to understand. Terms like inscrutable come to mind. But this is much more than a cultural misunderstanding. For instance did you know that if an Iranian compliments something in your home you're supposed to give them the item? It's funny because a side effect is they don't compliment you on anything... which is off-putting until you understand the system. There are all sorts of social rules that make absolutely no sense - but this is way beyond that. I've been working for some time on trying to understand what this all means and why it's happening. I don't know much - but I believe the reason the myth of the Mahdi is coming forth now is because there is a fundamental force destroying the ideas that hold up Islam. The chaos they are calling for is in answer to this... And it is happening. It'll probably be in the form of a reformation and not all that scary when they look back on this time. But looking forward, their world is being rocked.

And the MSM? They don't get it. The closest is Friedman of the New York Times. He knows it's a war of ideas and he has an interesting feel for the region.

[Tailgunner Joe]

bttt

[griffin]

bump

[griffin]

"My guess is it'll be nukes for Israel, and bios for us."

The Bible tells us Israel will be shielded, but bio for the US, pre-emptive to an attempted strike on Israel, makes alot of sense. I fear bio more than nukes.

I find it curious that at this time Iran wants to reinitiate direct flights from Iran to the US. Also the Mahmoud trip to Cuba is interesting.

[G.Mason]

I am reluctant to agree, but you are, no doubt, correct.

This frog in a pot of water on the stove bit is getting tiresome. We all know the outcome.

Well ... some of us do.

[Former Proud Canadian]

Your attempts to understand "them" are laudatory, personally I don't care. To me it's simple. They are living in the dark ages. We are living in the light. We allow them to live among us because of who and what we are (Judeo-Christian, western civilization etc.). They want to subjugate us because that is all they know.

From your perspective (you have obviously studied this more than I), what do you think would result if Mecca or Medina or both were incinerated?

It is a clash of civilizations. The islamic world is very lucky that Mr. Bush is president right now. A lesser man would have pressed the button a long time ago.

[wolfcreek]

Man, If I didn't know better, I'd swear I was listening to a Liberal point of view. There's a real danger here, not only for the present but, also for our children's future.( whooops! now I'm sounding like a Liberal)

[GOPJ]

Your attempts to understand "them" are laudatory, personally I don't care.

One of the differences between Hitler and Churchhill's way of dealing with each other was Hitler made it known he didn't want to see anything that conflicted with his preconceived notions. He believed Germany was winning and his drivers were told to avoid areas that had been bombed. If that wasn't possible, the curtains on the touring car were to be drawn. Hitler's understanding of Churchill was silly enough to be less than caricature - more a one dimensional, self-serving idiocy.

Churchill, on the other hand, would go out after a bombing and survey the damage. He wanted as much information on Hitler as possible. His historical assessments of Hitler were on the money. And that gave Churchill the edge.

There's a tradition in Western Civilization of trying to understand the enemy in order to defeat them. My "understanding" is within that tradition.