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Earth in for another "ice age" in mid-century - scientist
RIA Novosti ^ | Feb 6, 2006

Posted on 02/06/2006 7:29:47 PM PST by AdrianR

ST. PETERSBURG, February 6 (RIA Novosti) - Low solar activity could trigger a global freeze in the middle of the 21st century, a Russian astronomer said Monday.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory said temperatures would begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reached its peak, and that the coldest period would occur 15-20 years after a major solar output decline in 2035-2045.

Abdusamatov said dramatic changes in the earth's surface temperatures were an ordinary phenomenon, not an anomaly, and resulted from variations in the Sun's energy output and ultraviolet radiation.

The Northern Hemisphere's most recent cool-down period of 1645-1705, known as the Little Ice Age, left canals in Holland frozen solid and forced people in Greenland to abandon their houses to glaciers, the scientist said.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Russia
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalcooling; globalguesswork; globalwarming; globalwarmingping
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To: RandallFlagg

My daughter and I just had a laughing good time watching that movie. I loved the homeless guy with his dog.

My favorite was how the "super-cooled air" would RUSH in from the troposphere all the way down to earth and freeze people in seconds. Of course, there isn't enough air up there to rush anywhere -- but worse, when it actually happened they knew it because -- the wind STOPPED. Yep, the rushing super-coold tropospheric wind was ushered in by a complete lack of movement in the heated surface air.

We also thought it was funny how the water kept rising for hours, then it froze, and then people walked out the doors of the building, and then later the frozen water was back up to the midpoint of the ship. Pretty good trick. That and the phone lines still having power when the entire electric grid was down -- those unmanned phone switches must have one heck of a power source......


41 posted on 02/06/2006 8:47:10 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: CharlesWayneCT

LOL! Never seen it.


42 posted on 02/06/2006 8:49:34 PM PST by RandallFlagg (Roll your own cigarettes! You'll save $$$ and smoke less!(Magnetic bumper stickers-click my name)
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To: AdrianR

No way! Our evil coal and petroleum products will heat this world up! Mwa-ha-ha-haaaaaa!!!


43 posted on 02/06/2006 9:38:37 PM PST by vpintheak (Liberal = The antithesis of Freedom and Patriotism)
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To: DaveLoneRanger

Gee, Dave, it looks like you'll have to start ANOTHER ping list soon. LOL


44 posted on 02/06/2006 10:16:11 PM PST by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: Cyclopean Squid

Actually, global warming ends ice ages as well. We have been in a global warming period for 18,000 years.


45 posted on 02/07/2006 6:08:47 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestu s globus, inflammare animos)
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To: starfish923
"We might see ice skaters, skiiers and biathaloners from the Caribbean."

I see a resurgence of the Jamaican Bobsled team....

46 posted on 02/07/2006 6:10:17 AM PST by Joe 6-pack (Que me amat, amet et canem meum.)
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To: AdrianR
Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory said temperatures would begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reached its peak, and that the coldest period would occur 15-20 years after a major solar output decline in 2035-2045.

And the basis for this prediction is what, exactly?

47 posted on 02/07/2006 7:57:59 AM PST by cogitator
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To: Redbob
That's funny - this is exactly what the professional Chicken Littles were hollering about in the early '70s...

In the 70s, the slight cooling was related to high quantities of atmospheric SO2 primarily from coal burning. This is a different mechanism (and I'd still like to know why he thinks this is going to happen).

48 posted on 02/07/2006 8:01:21 AM PST by cogitator
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To: CharlesWayneCT
That and the phone lines still having power when the entire electric grid was down -- those unmanned phone switches must have one heck of a power source......

Traditionally, the phone system had backup power: batteries and generators. The objective was for communications to survive no matter what.

Then again it's been a number of years since I worked for AT&T, so that may have fallen to cist cutting

49 posted on 02/07/2006 8:03:26 AM PST by SauronOfMordor (A planned society is most appealing to those with the hubris to think they will be the planners)
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To: cogitator

solar cycles.


50 posted on 02/07/2006 8:05:35 AM PST by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: cogitator
the slight cooling was related to high quantities of atmospheric SO2 primarily from coal burning

That's a theory in some climate models, not a fact.

51 posted on 02/07/2006 8:06:43 AM PST by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: Sam Cree
This article is a little short on information,

Seconded. Google on "Abdusamatov solar" and you'll find a few references to him (make sure it's "Kh Abdusamatov"). Still not much to go on.

52 posted on 02/07/2006 8:07:37 AM PST by cogitator
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To: palmer
solar cycles.

I gathered that, but why he thinks that the Sun will enter a low-activity cycle in a few years is not indicated.

53 posted on 02/07/2006 8:09:38 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
A little bit of high level info about solar cycles in context: http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7y.html Maybe he's looking at sunspot cycles?
54 posted on 02/07/2006 8:24:54 AM PST by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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