Posted on 02/05/2006 9:20:51 AM PST by NormsRevenge
Every new year seems to bring on a new Arnold Schwarzenegger. In his first State of the State address in January 2004, he was the Arnold who would “blow up the boxes” and remake state government. That idea fizzled, and in 2005 he proclaimed the “year of reform.” This notion became the four ballot measures stomped on by the voters in the November special election. So in 2006 Schwarzenegger is back with another “New Arnold,” this time as the great empire builder.
JIM WILSON / The New York Times Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, left, shares a laugh with Senate President Pro Tem Don Peralta just before his State of the State speech. Citing governors like Earl Warren and Pat Brown, who built the state as we know it today, Schwarzenegger wants a huge commitment to rebuilding California's failing infrastructure. This takes the form of a multiyear general obligation bond issue of possibly more than $70 billion over a decade, and a total program of leveraged funds totaling $222 billion to rebuild roads, schools levees, water storage facilities, all those things that fall under the umbrella of infrastructure.
In one sense this is the exact opposite of 2005's “year of reform.” Last year's ballot measures took on a variety of interest groups, from legislative Democrats to public employee unions. Schwarzenegger suffered such a thorough defeat that e spent the next two months apologizing for having embraced the special election in the first place.
The infrastructure crusade requires a bipartisan cooperation with legislative Democrats; Schwarzenegger is not talking about doing this on his own, but rather in a new era of cooperation and conciliation. He is asking Californians to go back to the 1945-1965 era of the State Water Project, new colleges and universities, and miles upon miles of freeways.
All that worked in a more homogeneous state and in a time of consensus. But in the 1960s and 1970s, the rise of environmentalism, student unrest and eventually the tax revolt shattered both the consensus to build big projects and to let government spend tax dollars however it wanted.
Schwarzenegger is also trying to pull off this massive public works program during an election year and from a greatly weakened political position. The big bond is an effort both to reinvent himself politically so he will have a platform to run for re-election on, and to reintroduce himself to the public as a serious governor tackling issues the people care about.
It's no surprise that his third State of the State speech was his most business-like and most substantive. No more cliche's about “blowing up boxes” or “year of reform.” This speech also reflected in tone and content the fact he has largely remade his staff since last November's disaster, bringing in as his chief of staff a veteran of the administration of former Gov. Gray Davis, Susan Kennedy, who was once a Democratic Party activist.
HOWARD LIPIN / Union-Tribune Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger greets members of the Assembly and Senate after his State of the State address at the state capital. Her appointment was followed by an embrace of several Democratic issues, including increasing the minimum wage, and howls of unhappiness from both right and left. “Gov. Schwarzenegger should not run for re-election and should no longer enjoy the endorsement of the California Republican Party if he does,” wrote Michael Schroeder, a former state Republican chairman and former head of the ultra-conservative California Republican Assembly.
The left may be even madder, seeing its hard-won 2005 election victory melt away as “New Arnold” emerges. Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown arranged for Schwarzenegger to address the annual Martin Luther King breakfast in that liberal city, setting off outrage on the Democratic left. “We've spent a year and a half and millions of dollars fighting this SOB. For him to come to this breakfast was an absolute insult,” raged Tim Paulson, head of the San Francisco Labor Council.
Their displeasure reflects the reality that not only has Schwarzenegger shed the policies and the staff of the year 2005, he also has largely shed his political party. While he will certainly run for re-election as a Republican – he has no choice but appear with that label – all his moves suggest a conscious decision to recast himself as a political outsider.
The one sure way to beat Schwarzenegger is to nationalize the 2006 election. President Bush could hardly be less popular here, and 2006 is shaping up as a year of problems for national Republicans. It's no wonder Schwarzenegger's leading Democratic opponent, State Treasurer Phil Angelides, has tried tying him to Bush at every opportunity.
But that has fallen on deaf ears because Schwarzenegger's new team is more than willing to take on the White House, as they just did over the administration's failure to prepare adequately for the new Medicare drug law. Schwarzenegger figures that in the end Republican voters will have no place to go. He's gambling that Angelides will win the Democratic primary and be far too liberal for any Republican to vote for.
So his political and policy goals converge on a strategy to win over soft Democrats, and especially independent voters, who are crucial to victory in this increasingly Democratic state. This is also reflected in his new political team whose de facto head is chief of staff Kennedy.
In mid-January, the governor announced that Matthew Dowd, a Texas Republican, will be his head campaign strategist. Dowd's California experience consists of working on the 1992 Clinton presidential campaign. That's right, Clinton. Dowd was once a Democratic activist, and worked with Susan Kennedy during her Democratic Party days in the 1992 Clinton effort. Kennedy and Dowd know one thing; how to win over Democrats and independent voters.
”New Arnold” not only has a new staff and political approach, he also has new friends. Schwarzenegger's infrastructure bond depends on both the kindness and the self-interest of his erstwhile Democratic foes. Early evidence suggests this strategy may be paying off.
The Public Policy Institute of California just released the first detailed poll on Schwarzenegger's infrastructure plan. It found a whopping 68 percent in favor of the governor's approach, the first time in more than a year that voters have favored Schwarzenegger's policies. His approval numbers were up also.
The Senate's Democratic leader, State Sen. Don Perata, has his own infrastructure bond issue and has been pushing the rebuilding of infrastructure for a year. The Senate Transportation chairman, Tom Torlakson, D-Contra Costa County, is also behind the idea of a big bond.
If “New Arnold” wants to spend big dollars on government projects, what Democrat is going to say no? There may be some jostling over how much of the pie labor gets to play with, and Republicans want some reform of environmental laws, but there is enough for both parties that Schwarzenegger's bond is very likely to pass in some form.
The only real losers at this point seem to be his two Democratic opponents for governor, Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly. They would love their partisans to kill the bond so Schwarzenegger cannot wrap himself next fall in fixing potholes, better highways and strengthened levees.
But a re-elected Arnold may not be the worst thing for legislative Democrats. They retain more power as kings of the Legislature with a Republican rather than a Democratic governor. And this class of legislative leaders, soon to be victims of term limits, would not mind being remembered for restoring the California of the Warren-Brown golden age.
They say even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while. Coming off one of the worst election defeats in California history and with his approval rating still at only 40 percent among registered voters, it is quite remarkable how effectively “New Arnold” has transformed himself and shed the baggage that got him into so much trouble.
With some luck, and he just may have that, he'll be able to add a new title to his many Mr. Olympia triumphs, master rebuilder of the state of California.
The new Ahnold, same as the old Ahnold. Ahnold shed his political party? Don't buy it. Ahnold still has that "R" next to his name. "R" for RINO!
Dowd, Kennedy, Zingale. It's like old home week in the executive suite.
Just last evening they were madly spamming anyone here who even dared suggest that there was a revolt among their grass roots as the party continued to try to shove a liberal down conservative throats .
It's too bad because some conservative Republican candidates are probably going to get washed away in November as the tide sweeps across the increasingly corrupted CRP.
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