Posted on 02/05/2006 5:16:31 AM PST by Alas Babylon!
I found it helpful. How do you think Mehlman did? It seemed to me he was very effectively putting Georgie boy on his heels.
That is a very nice thought. Timmy was certainly off his game, and I do not think it is because of another Super Bowl without the Bills. I thought that Boehner cleaned his clock on both the Newt and Delay questions/insinuations. Boehner even had to tell Russert three times that he would discuss with Delay about reclaiming leadership if he is thoroughly acquitted of all charges. Russert really acted stuck on stupid because he acted like Boehner did not answer the question and any fool could see and hear he did.
Whoaaaaaa. One of 11 children and a father who owned a bar! A REAL world background for sure. lol
I didn't realize F&F weekends was still on. I stopped watching it because of Julian and found other things to do in the early morning on the weekends.
Go, Steelers! Send the Bus home with a ring.
Ping for your perusal re FISA, NSA
I remember the question and McCain's answer of not knowing anything about it. At the time all I could think of was, yeah, just like the Keeting Five fiasco or Hillary's answers of "I can't remember" to the grand jury.
Yeah, (laughing) I'll bet he knows a lot about bathroom privacy too.
I mostly agree with you about the internal polling
But many folks are ticked off at the spending on pork projects from Congress
"This coming election is a big one. If the Democrats would regain the House, the country is in trouble for years to come.
Bears repeating... and yes, BIG-TIME trouble."
I was looking to see if I could find what the most vulnerable seats in 2006 might be. We can take what Sabato says w a grain of salt, but he was one of the only articles I could find. I compiled what he calls the ‘Dirty 30” and have listed them below. Have also cut and pasted part of his article here.
Current breakdown: 231 Republicans, 202 Democrats, 1 Independent, 1 vacancy
Dirty Thirty 2006 house seats:
Summary:
Leans R: 15
Leans D: 7
Toss Up: 8 (3 of these are open seats)
CO (3) – Leans D
CO (4) – Leans R
CO (7) – Toss up (Open Seat) [Bob Beauprez-R]
CT (2) – Leans R
CT (4) – Leans R
FL (22) – Leans R
GA (03) – Toss up
GA (12) – Leans D
IA (1) – Toss up (Open Seat) [Jim Nussle –R]
IA (3) – Leans D
IL (8) – Toss up
IN (8) – Toss up
IN (9) – Leans R
LA (3) – Toss up
LA (7) – Leans R
MN (2) – Leans R
MN (6) - Leans R (Open Seat) [Mark Kennedy – R]
NC (11) – Leans R
NM (1) – Leans R
OH (6) – Toss up (Open Seat) [Ted Strickland – D]
OH (18) – Leans R
PA (6) – Toss up
PA (8) – Leans R
SD (AL) – Leans D
TX (17) – Leans D
TX (22) – Leans R
UT (2) – Leans D
VT (AL) – Leans D
WA (8) – Leans R
WI (8) – Leans R
Go to this page if you want to see the specifics of each race:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/?view
"The last several cycles of congressional election action have left pundits scratching their heads thinking about just how entrenched the House Republican majority has become since 1994. Thanks largely to redistricting in recent years, Democratic efforts to "expand the playing field" of competitive House races so as to make contestable the GOP's relatively slim margin (within the broader historical context) have gone down in flames. But now that President Bush's approval rating is at an all time low and the stars seem to be aligned for Democrats, is it a whole new ballgame? Is it remotely possible that there could exist a "House of Blues" after the 2006 midterm? (Read more in the Crystal Ball's latest 2006 House email update.)
Crystal Ball says...it's possible. As we saw in angrily anti-GOP Ohio on August 2nd in a special election, even some of the most Republican districts in the country are not entirely impervious to strong voter revolts. And already, national Democratic strategists are hyping 2006 as the reverse version of 1994, the year a national partisan tidal wave toppled Democrats from power. In fact, the leaders of the Democrats' congressional campaign committee are so enthusiastic about this comparison that they have just embarked on a "Campaign for Change" online petition drive, taking a page out of the 1994 GOP's "Contract With America" playbook. But while Democrats' current deficit of 15 seats pales in comparison to the 53 seats gained by Republican insurgents nearly twelve years ago, Democrats may actually have just as steep a mountain to climb now as the GOP had then."
>snip
"That said, it's about time to introduce what all Crystal Ball-watchers have been anticipating: THE DIRTY THIRTY! Named not because these races are the most vicious or negative races, but rather these are the contests we see as the most competitive and hard-fought. As our tally currently stands, 20 of the seats currently featured in our "Dirty Thirty" are held by the GOP, and 10 are held by Democrats. If the election was held today and the thirty races broke evenly between the parties, Democrats would enjoy a modest gain of 5 seats. However, the results of the 2006 election--still thirteen long months away--could end up breaking strongly in one party's direction or the other's. In order to wrest control of the lower chamber, Democrats would have to win 25 out of our "Dirty Thirty" competitive seats or score a few major upsets in other races--a tall task, but not necessarily out of the question if the 2006 electoral atmosphere strongly favors them and opposes Bush. In fact, if these races were to be decided in today's anti-GOP political environment, we at the Crystal Ball believe there would be a decent, 30+ percent shot for the Democrats to claim the Speaker's gavel for Rep. Nancy Pelosi--and a 80+ percent chance to gain five or more seats on the GOP. Oh how the Democrats wish the midterm elections were this November 8th, and how happy are Republicans that the elections are next November. (Of course, other shoes can drop by November 2006, but our Republican readers should not be tortured like this.)
The bottom line? It's clear that Republicans are currently beset with troubles and Democrats have benefitted from some lucky breaks, and thus are poised to add to their numbers in the House in 2006. The indictment of Tom DeLay, without question, stands front and center. But Democrats are also aided these days by a string of candidate recruitment coups and by the growing relevance of issues such as the federal response to Hurricane Katrina and soaring gas prices. Moreover, even though voters aren't especially enthusiastic about the Democrats overall, there is only one real alternative in our two-party system, if the electorate wants to send a message to the President and controlling majority in Congress. As of late 2005, the Crystal Ball believes the GOP could face very serious repercussions next year, even in a handful of districts that have not experienced recent competition. For members of the congressional minority, "expanding the playing field" is the name of the game, and for now they have good reason to believe they could soon taste the success that has eluded them for the last decade. Still, there is plenty of time left for President Bush and the GOP to recover their footing. Democrats are salivating, but it is still possible they could go hungry again."
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/
"Russert's days at NBC & NBC's days at GE are numbered."
How intriguing! Any more details, or a link? Thanks!
-bump-
Awesome synthesis
I wonder who is planting the memes. 100's of supposedly independent "news" and commentary organizations march in lock-step with regard to the subject and timing of memes.
You SO deserve your awards on this thread!
Seriously, thanks... lotsa good stuff in there.
Addressing the annual Munich security conference, she said there had been complacency in other countries as Adolf Hitler rose to power.
Speaking to an audience that included U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld , McCain & Lieberman, Merkel had particularly blunt words for Ahmadinejad:"Iran has blatantly crossed the red line," she said.
"I say it as German chancellor. A president who questions Israel's right to exist, a president who denies the Holocaust cannot expect to receive any tolerance from Germany."
Looks like elections have consequences, everywhere as dems realised in Alito confirmation. Why media cares more about Slovakia elections than Germany, Canada, Poland, Japan exposes them & the reality.
David would probably have told him to put some ice on it. ;^>
IAC (if anyone cares) Babs is on CNN with Wolfie.
I would not bother to stream the networks, just log onto Ken5050's Thread tomorrow, and get the real play by play by the New Media. I believe that Russert knows he has stepped in it, but he knows that if he does not act like the little Prostitute for the DNC that NBC will find another DNC flack to do the job. They will probably just hire one of Slick Willy's old media people, or one of Hillary's present Media person. I could see them hiring Steve Grossman or someone of that ilk who will toe the party line. They know that everything is at stake and if they just hold on to one more election cycle without getting run out of town on a rail by the listeners and that if the dems do get back in charge they will have been almost totally responsible. They believe they can do it, they do not think much of the new media, and that in itself may defeat them in the end.
Sorry, I always give links when I can. I can't, for this.
Good post. Except I disagree with it. Given the troubles the Republicans have had, (false charges, foolish filibuster attempts, manufactured scandal after manufactured scandal, and a hostile and unwielding media)the Dems should be polling in the 90s. But the news is Cindy Sheehan, and "plantations" from the Democrats. They are the minority party now and will be the obscurity party later if they continue in this vein. There is not enough time to shed the image of them being the Party of "No", the Party of Chavez, The Party of Sheehan and the Party of Filibuster Kerry, before the 2006 midterms. I dont care what the NYT or Russert or anyone else in the "parchment and stone tablet" media say..
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.