Posted on 02/04/2006 4:36:14 PM PST by leadpenny
NEW YORK - New York's celebrity senator, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, generates near-constant buzz about a possible 2008 presidential bid. The outgoing governor, Republican George Pataki, has been making campaign reconnaissance trips to Iowa, site of the first-in-the nation presidential caucuses.
But for former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the road to a possible presidential campaign has shaped up very differently.
The man dubbed "America's Mayor" for his take-charge performance after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks has been flying under the media radar, building his businesses and enjoying a prosperous private life while assessing his chances in a crowded and conservative GOP primary field.
"Whatever he's going to do, he isn't going to tell us anytime soon," said Steven Cohen, vice dean of the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs and a longtime Giuliani watcher. "He's a very astute politician, and I'm sure he's aware of the problems he has to win the Republican nomination. It's in his interest to keep his options open."
Analysts agree that Giuliani's long record of support for gay rights, gun control and legal abortion could disqualify him as a candidate among the conservatives who dominate GOP presidential primaries. Yet with the memory of his post-Sept. 11 leadership still fresh for many voters, Giuliani has been at or near the top of virtually every national poll of likely GOP presidential contenders, along with his good friend, Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona.
But unlike McCain and many other potential contenders, Giuliani has largely avoided the national spotlight and the political hothouses of Iowa and New Hampshire. His spokeswoman, Sunny Mindel, said Giuliani spends his days promoting his consulting practice and developing his law practice. Last year, he became a named partner in a large Houston-based law firm, now called Bracewell & Giuliani, and opened its New York office.
Still, he has been in nearly constant motion, blending business trips, motivational speeches and the occasional political appearance into a potent mix of national connections — all of which could gel into a campaign effort if he chose to run.
"It's no great secret that Rudy has been traversing the country from one end to the other, and he ties in his stops where he can meet movers and shakers in the political scene," said former Staten Island Borough President Guy Molinari, a longtime Giuliani friend. "He's a coveted speaker and there are a lot of people out there who've gotten to know him over the years. He can turn all of that to his political benefit."
Consider Giuliani's recent trip to Florida, where he addressed some 10,000 people at a "Get Motivated!" business seminar, one of many he's headlined since last year. He paired that event with a speech before the Billion Soul Pastors Conference, a large convention of evangelical leaders in Orlando.
Giuliani, a Roman Catholic, told the pastors about his one-time call to the priesthood, according to James Davis, president of the Global Pastors Network, which sponsored the conference.
"He said he had a great appreciation for God's word, God in general, and Christians in particular," Davis said. "The mayor was warmly received and I thought he did an extraordinary job."
Since campaigning vigorously for President Bush in 2004, Giuliani has been selective in granting other political endorsements. He signed a fundraising letter for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, a conservative running for re-election in November, praising his performance in the aftermath of last fall's Gulf Coast hurricanes which devastated parts of the state.
Indeed, the recent preponderance of natural and man-made disasters around the globe had boosted Giuliani's profile as a strong leader, said Fred Siegel, author of "Prince of the City: Giuliani, New York, and the Genius of American Life."
"The events are talking for him — the London transit bombings, New Orleans, every time Nagin and Blanco make fools of themselves, which is often," Siegel said, referring to New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco, whose responses to Hurricane Katrina have been widely criticized.
But skeptics remain unconvinced.
Marshall Wittmann, a former McCain aide and one-time legislative director for the Christian Coalition, said Giuliani's record on social issues would be a "show stopper" for most conservative voters.
However, he added, many Republicans would find a McCain-Giuliani ticket irresistible.
"Rudy's national security credentials could bring him to the No. 2 spot on ticket, but not No. 1," Wittmann said. "Pro-life voters care about national security, but they are Republicans because it's the pro-life party and they'd leave the party if it nominated a pro-choice candidate. The mayor's an intelligent guy, and I'm certain he knows that."
Received a fundraising letter for Gov Perry of Texas this afternoon in the mail from Rudy. Looks like he is going around helping our candidates with fundraising.
While I think Rudy will run, he won't make it to super tuesday.
Between him, McCain, Hagel, Romney and Pataki, the moderates (already outnumbered in a GOP primary) will be unable to have any canidate sustain more then 20% in any state.
Rudy will probably start preaching a message where his social views are irrelevent because he would vow to appoint "strict constitutionalist" or constructionists in the Scalia/Thomas model.
While him and McCain get along well, in a primary, expect McCain to hammer at Rudy for being socially liberal (McCains record on social issues is conservative....but outside of that not much else), and the infighting to get nasty.
Whomever is the solid conservative (aka George Allen, or a Pence type, etc), as long as they have a pulse, they'll win.
Brownback will try and drag the race to the right in any event and may well suceed.
I think your analysis is right, but I'll probably support Mayor Guiliani anyway, since I will be able to sleep at night knowing he will do whatever it takes to keep our Republic secure.
Plus I'll have the comfort Guiliani slaughters ANY Democrat, including Hillary, in the general election.
That's what I'm thinking JH. If the GOP sees Hillary getting out front, Rudy would be the best contender.
Little off topic but does Kinky even have a chance?
Oh, a pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, anti-gun liberal from New York.
Can you feel the excitement in the Heartland?
No?
"Can you feel the excitement in the Heartland?"
At least with Rudy we get CONSERVATIVE JUDGES, and that's what counts. With Hillary, Clark, or Warner, we don't, and on top of it, our national security is compromised at a critical time in history.
Conservative judges. And you know that how?
Rudy roomed with a gay couple after he was kicked out of Gracie Mansion while divorcing his second wife to marry his Jewish mistress.
How's that going to play in South Carolina?
I agree! If Rudy is the Republican Presidential nominee, I'll vote for him. Not because he's a RINO on a lot of issues (which he is), but because he's the only viable candidate who will continue the WOT. Destroying the Islamofascists is the most important mission that the U.S. is facing. We lose this one, it's game, set and match.
I think that Romney is going to be the most formidable candidate. He talks conservative and he looks presidential. Never underestimate looks in a presidential race. People being people, they will go for the good looking guy, especially if he talks well. Them's the sad facts.
You remember Guiliani's opposition to the anti-Christian Brooklyn Museum art exhibit, right?
Don't bet on it.
Rudy guarantees an automatic 3rd party contender who would battle him on social issues.
Most conservatives would run over themselves if they think Hillary will win the nomination.
I don't think anyone outside of a few freepers and the media, really thinks Hillary Clinton could win the presidency.
Ah, how I remember the Quayle administration!
Gridlock is far preferable to a Giuliani or a McCain. They are monsters. At least a GOP congress would oppose a Dem monster in the White House and may pretend to be conservative again.
Don't think Rudy has a chance with the base. If can carry Michigan, he might lose other states.
BTW, snow is sticking on the roads now. Flashback to 1982 when VP Bush came to the Super Bowl.
I agree that at this point in time McCain-Giuliani would win a national election by a large majority. By the way, both trounce Hillary in the polls. McCain has, I believe, been treated somewhat unfairly. (1) On fiscal issues he's a hell of alot more conservative than big spending Bush (who's given us the biggest entitlement since LBJ); (2)he's an ardent and courageous supporter of the war in Iraq.
Giuliani is still "America's Mayor" and the toughest opponent of terrorism in contemporary politics. Sure, we don't agree with them on every issue and they've made mistakes. But if we look for candidates who agree with us on all the issues -- we'll look in vain. Besides, it's all about the most important issues (national security and fiscal responsibility) and winning elections! Let's face it, the Republicans and conservatives will need people who can get votes from a broader spectrum in '08. And that's one pair that can.
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