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To: presidio9
A more scientifically-grounded view:

Planetary Energy Imbalance?

Three paragraphs from the full feature:

"The key points of the paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes of ocean heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating "in the pipeline", and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing."

2. "What does this imply? Firstly, as surface temperatures and the ocean heat content are rising together, it almost certainly rules out intrinsic variability of the climate system as a major cause for the recent warming (since internal climate changes (ENSO, thermohaline variability, etc.) are related to transfers of heat around the system, atmospheric warming would only occur with energy from somewhere else (i.e. the ocean) which would then need to be cooling)."

3. "Secondly, since the ocean warming is shown to be consistent with the land surface changes, this helps validate the surface temperature record, which is then unlikely to be purely an artifact of urban biases etc. Thirdly, since the current unrealised warming "in the pipeline" is related to the net imbalance, 0.85+/-0.15 W/m2 implies an further warming of around 0.5-0.7 C, regardless of future emission increases. This implications are similar to the conclusions discussed recently by Wigely and Meehl et al.. Many different models have now demonstrated that our understanding of current forcings, long-term observations of the land surface and ocean temperature changes and the canonical estimates of climate forcing are all consistent within the uncertainties. Thus since we are reasonably confident in what has happened in the recent past, projections of these same models under plausible future scenarios need to be considered seriously."

13 posted on 02/01/2006 12:27:18 PM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator

for years now, I've waiting for you to post your own thoughts to one of these threads, rather than someone else's. Is it ever going to happen?


14 posted on 02/01/2006 12:29:54 PM PST by presidio9 ("Bird Flu" is the new Y2K virus -only without the handy deadline.)
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To: cogitator

Lessee now---do those "models" account for all the methane it has recently been discovered that plants emit, or the additional CO2 vented into the ocean and atmosphere by the new chain of subsea volcanos just discovered under the arctic ocean?? Do those models factor in WATER VAPOR and CLOUDS??


17 posted on 02/01/2006 1:19:31 PM PST by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel)
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