A Global Warming Worksheet (How a diligent citizen can judge for himself)

The Wall Street Journal ^ | February 1, 2006

[presidio9]

As used by the media, "global warming" refers to the theory not only that the earth is warming, but doing so because of human industrial activity.

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All we have is hypothesis.

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So how else might an intelligent layperson judge the matter?

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Well, he could begin by evaluating the claim that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from 0.028% to 0.036% without necessarily taking the measurements himself. This finding is so straightforward, it's reasonable to assume it would have been widely debunked if unreliable.

Next, the claim that this should lead to higher temperatures because of the heat-absorbing qualities of the CO2 molecule. A reasonable person might be tempted to take this finding on faith too, for a different reason: because even ardent believers in global warming accept that this fact alone wouldn't justify belief in manmade global warming.

That's because all things are not equal: The climate is a vast, complex and poorly understood system. Scientists must resort to elaborate computer models to address a multiplicity of variables and feedbacks before they can plausibly suggest (choice of verb is deliberate here) that the net effect of increased carbon dioxide is the observed increase in temperature.

By now, a diligent layperson is equipped to doubt any confident assertion that manmade warming is taking place. Models are not the climate, and may not accurately reflect the workings of the climate, especially when claiming to detect changes that are small and hard to differentiate from natural changes.

Nobody doubts, for instance, that when Bill Clinton asserts global warming is the greatest threat to mankind, he's consulting not the science but a purported "consensus" of scientists. A layman asks himself: What can "consensus" mean if it asserts a judgment nobody is equipped to confidently make?

-snip-

[GoodWithBarbarians JustForKaos]

Here you go again...:

"no one disputes..." - You sure about that? You have read and researched every scientist's paper on this issue? I think not.

[mugs99]

Crichton's amazing! Have you read 'State of Fear'?

Not yet, but I'm sure going to as soon as I get some reading time!
.

[Tench_Coxe]

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