Something to keep in mind when the pundits start disecting the SOTU speech and speculating on if it will improve Bush's 'poll numbers'........
TO: Republican National Committee Members
FROM: Matthew Dowd, RNC Senior Advisor
RE: State Of The Union Polls
DATE: January 30, 2006
As you watch tomorrow night’s State of the Union Address, be mindful of poll numbers in the aftermath of the speech. A story line has developed that says the President has to move his approval numbers coming out of the speech. This notion is premised on the belief that presidents historically enjoy a “State-of-the-Union Bounce.” While all of us would welcome increased public approval, the history (both recent and the last 50 years) of poll movement around this event shows quite a different story.
In looking at poll movement before and after State of the Union addresses, the average over the last fifty years is actually a slight drop (-0.2%). President Bush’s average change is also a drop (-0.4%). Only one of his SOTU addresses showed positive movement (2005), which is likely attributed to the intervening events of the 2005 Inaugural and January 2005 Iraqi elections. Even the “Great Communicator” President Ronald Reagan’s average poll movement after State of the Union addresses was negative (-2.6%), and in fact Reagan only had one SOTU speech with positive poll movement!
All of this is important to keep in mind as pundits analyze and analyze and analyze the effects of President Bush’s speech. Context is everything in politics.
I do so appreciate your posting that here, Julie. The pundits would all have us believe that Presidents always get a big bounce after the SOTU - just so they can make it look bad for Bush if his numbers *don't* rise.