Posted on 01/30/2006 5:09:47 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Republican Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker leads 42% to 40% when matched against Democratic Representative Harold Ford. Corker is doing better against Ford than he did in our December survey, when he trailed 36% to 42%.
Representative Ed Bryant is also in a toss-up with the Democrat, leading Ford 42% to 40%. Ford led Bryant by three percentage points in our previous poll.
Representative Van Hilleary, also vying for the Republican nomination, leads Ford 43% to 37%, just squeaking past the poll's margin of sampling error of 4.5%. Hilleary too has gained slightly against Ford, widening his edge by three percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
It's closer than I wish it was, but I think this poll doesn't take into account the Ford family's controversial reputation in Tennessee. That should help Republicans with undecided voters.
The only thing that concerns me is voter turnout on the Republican side. They have yet to come up with a serious opponent to Gov. Bredesen, and by not the top office not being challenged, getting a huge turnout may be a problem.
The thing is, that 38-40% might end up being the absolute maximum that Ford ends up getting, compared to the mid to high 50s or near 60% for the Republican. This may be the case of people lying to pollsters about wanting to vote against a Black man (how in 1990 polls indicated a substantial lead for Doug Wilder for VA Governor, when he barely beat his RINO opponent, Marshall Coleman).
Is Rasmussen only polling adults? If so, add 3 points for the Republican when polling likely voters.
There will be a big conservative turnout to vote for the amendment to the Tennessee constitution to limit marriage to one man and one woman. Tennessee will send another GOP senator to Washington.
Said from the start this was one race to keep an eye on because, while a Liberal, Ford plays as though he is not one.
Still, also stated a solid candidate and the state will remain Republican due to the tilt right nationally in this state. Wouldn't hurt to have Thompson and Bush campaign for the candidate. I'm sure Bush will, Thompson is semi removed from politics.
You make interesting points, but there are other things to consider. Harold Ford, Jr. is not his father. He pretends to be a moderate (he came out against the Alito filibuster) and the Lamestream Media is helping him whenever they get the chance. In addition, he's much more likeable than others of his ilk. On television, he sounds measured and reasonable.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting he'll win this thing. But he COULD win, particularly of conservatives and Republicans are overconfident.
I'll add something else, that there is some talk that Ford, Jr. may pull out entirely to run for Mayor of Memphis. The current Mayor is now the target of a recall, and it's going to be an unholy mess (as bad as King Willie Herenton is, he still stands as a bulwark against the Ford machine -- but he himself employs just as despicable methods and has had White voters in his pocket because he exploits their justifiable fears of the Fords taking complete control of Memphis from federal to local). If Ford drops out of the Senate race, you'll hear an enormous sigh of relief from the White Democrat establishment of TN.
I wish Ford would drop out of the Senate race and stay in the House. While his voting record is liberal, it's not anywhere as bad as what we would likely get from his replacement in that district.
You say that Ford won't get more than 40% in the Senate race, and you may be right. But I don't think any other Democrat interested in the Senate race has a chance of winning, so the RATs are probably happy that Ford is running, since he might be able to complete the Hail Mary (he is extremely personable and photogenic, and does not sound like the typical liberal RAT). Besides, if Ford can increase black turnout, that would help Governor Bredesen and the other RATs up and down the ballot.
As far as I'm concerned, I hope he stays and self-destructs, thanks to Daddy, Uncle John, and Auntie Ophelia. The primary to succeed him is going to be a real doozy.
"You say that Ford won't get more than 40% in the Senate race, and you may be right. But I don't think any other Democrat interested in the Senate race has a chance of winning, so the RATs are probably happy that Ford is running, since he might be able to complete the Hail Mary (he is extremely personable and photogenic, and does not sound like the typical liberal RAT). Besides, if Ford can increase black turnout, that would help Governor Bredesen and the other RATs up and down the ballot."
I'm actually more worried if State Sen. Rosalind Kurita is the nominee, rather than Ford. A Caucasian from a formerly GOP-held Clarksville-based district, she'd be a far more appealing and non-threatening candidate for the Democrats. There remains the situation this year that even if Bredesen gets reelected, the legislature continues to grow more Republican (we finally flipped the Senate last year without having party-switchers give us control, and we continue to chip away in the House, only 4 seats away from control -- the only problem being with RINO apostates who may still vote to keep Wilder and Boss Hogg Naifeh in control, and frankly the Caucus should make EVERY member sign a pledge that they will support the party's nominee for respective House & Senate Speakers or they will be kicked out of the caucus, period). I still wish we could get a strong GOP Gubernatorial candidate to aid us with a strong turnout, this IS still a winnable race given all of the negative and scandal-ridden baggage of this administration.
I agree with you that the gubernatorial election is winnable; I wish Van Hilleary felt the same way.
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