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POLLING UPDATE:

The left-leaning MSM and its affiliated pollsters are working overtime to ‘manufacture’ the lowest possible JA ratings for the President in advance of next Tuesday’s State of the Union address. We know this to be true for the following reasons:

1.) MSM-affiliated pollsters continue to ‘produce’ job approval (JA) ratings for the President much LOWER than those published by ‘Independent’ pollsters. Recent polls put the differential at -7 MSM-affiliated pollsters vs Independent pollsters – Does anyone detect just a hint of MEDIA BIAS?!.

INDEPENDENT POLLSTERS
Average JA rating: 47% approve 51% disapprove (-4)

MSM-AFFILIATED POLLSTERS
Average JA rating: 42% approve 53% disapprove (-11)

INDEPENDENT POLLSTERS
Average JA rating: 47% approve 51% disapprove (-4)

Rasmussen
01/26-28/06: 49% approve 50% disapprove (-1)
[Democrats oversampled by 3-5 points // JA rating from Republicans: 81%]
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

Cook/RT Strategies
01/22-25/06: 47% approve 50% disapprove (-3)
[Democrats/Democrat-leaning Independents oversampled by 7 points // JA rating from Republicans: 88%]

Diageo/Hotline Poll
01/12-15/06: 46% approve 53% disapprove (-7)
[Even sampling of Ds/Rs]

MSM-AFFILIATED POLLSTERS
Average JA rating: 42% approve 53% disapprove (-11)

ABCNews/Washington Post
01/22-26/06: 42% approve 56% disapprove (-14)
[sample demographics not provided]

Time Magazine
01/22-26/06: 41% approve 55% disapprove (-14)
[sample demographics not provided]

CBSNews/NYTimes
01/24-25/06: 42% approve 51% disapprove (-9)
[Unweighted sample overpolled Democrats by 2 points; WEIGHTED sample overpolled Democrats by 5 points – of course, the latter sample was used! Additionally, this pollster grossly oversamples Independents (37% of sample).]

FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics
01/24-25/06: 41% approve 51% disapprove (-10)
[Even though this pollster surveyed REGISTERED voters, they still oversampled Democrats by 7 points for this poll – NO credible pollster believes that registered Democrats hold a 7 point edge vis a vis registered Republicans!]

LATimes/Bloomberg
01/22-25/06: 43% approve 54% disapprove (-11) among adults
01/22-25/06: 45% approve 52% disapprove (-7) among registered voters
[sample demographics NOT provided // JA rating from “conservative” Republicans: 85% ]

[NOTE: On Monday (1/30/06), I’m quite sure that Gallup and AP/IpsosReid will publish polls that 'out bias’ even the aforementioned pollsters!]

You can find links to the topline results for these polls at
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_ja.html

2.) While Republicans have won the last three elections (and hold the House of Representatives 52%R to 48%D), BOTH Independent and MSM-affiliated pollsters continue to OVERSAMPLE DEMOCRATS! Without this sampling bias, the President’s JA rating would rank near or over the 50% mark – It’s the sample stupid!

3.) While Independent and MSM-affiliated pollsters alike use their results both to project election outcomes and to influence political/legislative policy, they continue to survey ‘adults’ rather than ‘likely voters’ (some MSM-affiliated pollsters are polling ‘registered voters, but NONE are polling ‘likely voters’) – Can we say INVALID results/correlations?!

4.) While Independent and MSM-affiliated pollsters alike LOUDLY broadcast the President’s JA ratings, they remain predictably mute about the JA ratings earned by Congress. Why? Because they’d have to admit that congressional JA ratings (for BOTH Democrats and Republicans) are always at least 10 points lower than the president’s ratings – and in the political arena, this is all that counts!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/congress_ja.html [Note: I include Hotline and Gallup in my calculations.]

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
In addition to manufacturing bogus JA ratings for the President, the MSM and their affiliated pollsters are also busy ignoring or spinning the historical perspective we need to interpret their polling results.

Historical Benchmarks:

1.) According to Gallup, both Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan earned JA averages in the 40s for 3 of their 8 years in office. To date, President Bush has earned an average JA rating in the 40s for ONE of his 5 years in office -- 2005. Additionally, his current cumulative JA rating of 60% is HIGHER than the cumulative JA ratings for BC (51%) and RR (52%) at this same point in their presidencies!!

BTW: Do you recall hearing incessantly that in 2002 and 2003 President Bush earned average JA ratings almost 20 points higher than BC and RR at similar points in their presidencies – I didn’t think so!

2.) According to Gallup, before his SOTU in 1983 when the public was as edgy about the economy as some are now, President Reagan sported JA ratings in the mid to low 30s. Even with today’s biased sampling techniques, GWB’s Gallup ratings have never reached these levels -- And no, you will never hear this information from the MSM.

3.) Contemporary presidents leading ‘hot’ wars have been devastated at the (JA) polls and the ballot box.

TRUMAN (D): JA rating so low that he declined to run for re-election

LBJ (D): JA rating so low that he declined to run for re-election (he wouldn’t even have won the Democrat nomination)

GHWB (R): JA rating so low he lost his bid for re-election

GWB (R): NOT ONLY DID GWB WIN HIS BID FOR RE-ELECTION, HE DID SO WITH MORE VOTES THAN ANY OTHER PRESIDENT IN HISTORY! [He also won over 80% of all counties and congressional districts in the country, yet biased MSM polling prior to the election insisted that his JA rating among ‘likely voters’ languished in the 40s – yeah right!!]

BOTTOM LINE: Independent pollsters confirm that the President’s JA rating is at least as high (or higher according to Rasmussen) than it was when he won re-election in 2004. The other JA nonsense is nothing more than MSM propaganda designed to depress Republican opinion/turnout in advance of the 2006 and 2008 election cycles! It’s the same old playbook and WE KNOW BETTER!