It really comes down to assumptions. I appreciate Pat Caddell who, although he is a Democrat pollster, at least is honest. During the 2004 campaigns, he tried to point out to Chad Clanton what a bad idea it was to bring up Mary Cheney and just the other night, he pointed out to Bob Beckel that too bad about the "negatives"; that when it comes to keeping Americans safe, the Dems can't touch Bush.
But what I really thought was interesting was when Pat Caddell was talking about the "let's go take action against Iran" numbers, he was perplexed that the numbers were so high even though there had not been a national discussion.
Because, even though I respect Caddell and disagree with him, he still assumes that we need to be told.
Bush can give one speech and the polls will jump ten points. Others bump the polls too, such as Rumsfeld being interviewed. What's driving the left nuts is they can depress the polls occasionally but cannot keep them there.