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Why assume it will be a deadly virus once it changes into a human form?

Because there would not be a shift from a virus that kills 20% or so of people who get it, to a virus that kills nobody. It becoming a squirrel virus would be more likely.

If it’s going to have to change into something else to really get at us, why assume the new version will be so lethal?

Actually, most "experts" I've heard speak about this think that it will become somewhat less lethal when it does mutate, but even a mortality rate of 5% would be worse than the 1918 pandemic's case fatality rate (or CFR). Also, the presence of a virus to which the host has no immunity opens up the possibility of dangerous secondary infections taking place whilst the body's immune system is busy trying to defend itself.

Why just the avian flue?

Because the three pandemics in the 20th century were all caused by avian influenza strains. Influenza has caused pandemics quite often throughout time.

There must be a thousand deadly viruses that kill animals with genetics closer to our own.

Not really, no.

Why not worry that they’ll kill us.

If you want to, be my guest.

I think this whole thing is generated from administrators and government doctors who are afraid to be unprepared, media looking for a story, and much of the publics nature to panic.

Then you fit the mold of the typical skeptic.

I just read the book about the 1918 flu epidemic with a similar virus. It was terrible. My grandfather died in that epidemic. He was well in the morning and dead by nightfall. My father who was 14 rode his horse around the parish for several months burying the dead, at 14. He never got it nor did my Mother.

But what is interesting is that the virulence of the 1918 virus varied over time. It was more killing early, then got less, then reemerged to be more killing later. And people died either very early or weeks later. Some pretty famous people died of this and the toll on health care workers was horrendous.

My guess is the contingency plans for this include forcing medical care people into service. That was on rec of the aftermath of 1918,,to commandeer all docs and nurses into national service. The dead in Phily were buried by priests.

The book is worth reading for a preview, it is not a pretty pic.

"Because there would not be a shift from a virus that kills 20% or so of people who get it, to a virus that kills nobody. It becoming a squirrel virus would be more likely."

Why assume the virus will be deadly once it changes into another virus? It’s a different virus if it can affect us. A different virus has a different rate of lethality. Why assume a 5% death rate for something they can’t even model? Why not a death rate similar to the common flue? If you’re going to go make that assumption, you might as assume mutations from every other viruses that’s deadly to other animal will kill us.

I’ve seen FR go through 2-3 pandemic panics, and they’re always promoted by a small group who wants to raise awareness. They always mention 1918 as if advances in hygiene, medical understanding, medical care and communications have little effect on isolating a new bug. I’m sure after the bird flue plays out, there’ll be another “killer flue” for some to take it upon themselves to spread awareness of and to worry about.