[elfman2]

"H5N1 could surprise us all and evolve into a squirrel or koala virus, sparing humanity."

Why assume it will be a deadly virus once it changes into a human form? If it’s going to have to change into something else to really get at us, why assume the new version will be so lethal?

Why just the avian flue? There must be a thousand deadly viruses that kill animals with genetics closer to our own. Why not worry that they’ll kill us.

I think this whole thing is generated from administrators and government doctors who are afraid to be unprepared, media looking for a story, and much of the publics nature to panic.

[Termite_Commander]

Why assume it will be a deadly virus once it changes into a human form?

Because there would not be a shift from a virus that kills 20% or so of people who get it, to a virus that kills nobody. It becoming a squirrel virus would be more likely.

If it’s going to have to change into something else to really get at us, why assume the new version will be so lethal?

Actually, most "experts" I've heard speak about this think that it will become somewhat less lethal when it does mutate, but even a mortality rate of 5% would be worse than the 1918 pandemic's case fatality rate (or CFR). Also, the presence of a virus to which the host has no immunity opens up the possibility of dangerous secondary infections taking place whilst the body's immune system is busy trying to defend itself.

Why just the avian flue?

Because the three pandemics in the 20th century were all caused by avian influenza strains. Influenza has caused pandemics quite often throughout time.

There must be a thousand deadly viruses that kill animals with genetics closer to our own.

Not really, no.

Why not worry that they’ll kill us.

If you want to, be my guest.

I think this whole thing is generated from administrators and government doctors who are afraid to be unprepared, media looking for a story, and much of the publics nature to panic.

Then you fit the mold of the typical skeptic.