Bird flu nightmare needs wake-up call

Scotsman.com ^ | January 28th, 2006 | Al Avlicino

[Termite_Commander]

Well, Mr. Avlicino's comments are sure to "rustle some feathers" around here.

Let the debate begin, I suppose.

[BenLurkin]

Y2K redux?

Guess it is time to stock up on more cases of MREs.

[mtbopfuyn]

Buffalo Wings!

[Termite_Commander]

Similar in that in both cases, people are trying to forecast what will happen in the future, but dissimilar in that pandemics have happened with regularity in the past, whilst Y2K's have not.

Where does one even get MRE's anyway? EBay?

[jocon307]

Well, I hope he is wrong, but it is not looking good. Those kids who died in Turkey, not good. Like the 1918 flu this one seems to be able to kill young healthy people. NOT GOOD. Whether or not it is transmissable between persons is not clear at this point, but again, the Turkish children cause some alarm. I know in my own family about 4 people died in the 1918 epidemic.

[TheBrotherhood]

mark

[Trident/Delta]

TC...

Dr Mike Osterholm is a friend of mine. He has been trying to raise awareness on Avian Influenza for quite a while. Despite the deniers on FR this is going to really take its toll on the planet. When I posted earlier that Tamiflu was ineffective against H5N1, there were the usual suspects comparing AI to SARS and such.

This is going to be REAL as opposed to Y2K that was a farce.

Semper Serious

[Sterco]

I will not sit here and wring my hands and go "woe is me". We can only hope that this will be dealt with. I know it has the worlds attention!!! Viruses can mutate in many ways. It could become stronger and it could become weaker. Ebola has been around for some time but it has not hit Eastern CO yet. That was a major scare for quite some time. You know what? Sooner or later something is going to get each of us. Out of the blue and into the black!!!

[WestCoastGal]

I saw him on Oprah.

It was definitely a wakeup call.

This countries emergency rooms are overwhelmed as it is. It will be worse than anyone can imagine.

[BenLurkin]

Here's one place: http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/MRE125-1299-639.html

Note that these are NOT genuine MRES.

[BenLurkin]

http://www.mrefoods.com/

[Termite_Commander]

Oh, excellent. I shall order several thousand. =)

[Termite_Commander]

Well, please tell Dr. Osterholm to keep up the good work. He, among others, is making a difference in raising public awareness.

[elfman2]

"H5N1 could surprise us all and evolve into a squirrel or koala virus, sparing humanity."

Why assume it will be a deadly virus once it changes into a human form? If it’s going to have to change into something else to really get at us, why assume the new version will be so lethal?

Why just the avian flue? There must be a thousand deadly viruses that kill animals with genetics closer to our own. Why not worry that they’ll kill us.

I think this whole thing is generated from administrators and government doctors who are afraid to be unprepared, media looking for a story, and much of the publics nature to panic.

[tatown]

You left the last line out of the article:

"• Al Avlicino is the author of Beat the Flu: How to Stay Healthy Through the Coming Bird Flu Pandemic, published by Fusion Press, priced £9.99"

[Termite_Commander]

Why assume it will be a deadly virus once it changes into a human form?

Because there would not be a shift from a virus that kills 20% or so of people who get it, to a virus that kills nobody. It becoming a squirrel virus would be more likely.

If it’s going to have to change into something else to really get at us, why assume the new version will be so lethal?

Actually, most "experts" I've heard speak about this think that it will become somewhat less lethal when it does mutate, but even a mortality rate of 5% would be worse than the 1918 pandemic's case fatality rate (or CFR). Also, the presence of a virus to which the host has no immunity opens up the possibility of dangerous secondary infections taking place whilst the body's immune system is busy trying to defend itself.

Why just the avian flue?

Because the three pandemics in the 20th century were all caused by avian influenza strains. Influenza has caused pandemics quite often throughout time.

There must be a thousand deadly viruses that kill animals with genetics closer to our own.

Not really, no.

Why not worry that they’ll kill us.

If you want to, be my guest.

I think this whole thing is generated from administrators and government doctors who are afraid to be unprepared, media looking for a story, and much of the publics nature to panic.

Then you fit the mold of the typical skeptic.

[Termite_Commander]

Oh, you're right. My apologies. Thank you for the correction, tatown.

[cajungirl]

I just read the book about the 1918 flu epidemic with a similar virus. It was terrible. My grandfather died in that epidemic. He was well in the morning and dead by nightfall. My father who was 14 rode his horse around the parish for several months burying the dead, at 14. He never got it nor did my Mother.

But what is interesting is that the virulence of the 1918 virus varied over time. It was more killing early, then got less, then reemerged to be more killing later. And people died either very early or weeks later. Some pretty famous people died of this and the toll on health care workers was horrendous.

My guess is the contingency plans for this include forcing medical care people into service. That was on rec of the aftermath of 1918,,to commandeer all docs and nurses into national service. The dead in Phily were buried by priests.

The book is worth reading for a preview, it is not a pretty pic.

[Termite_Commander]

You know, I need to study up on the "Spanish Flu" a bit. What's the book called? I'll see if I can pick it up from the library.