Prepare yourself for the unthinkable: war against Iran may be a necessity

TimesOnline (UK) ^ | 1/27/2006 | Gerard Baker

[Dark Skies]

THE UNIMAGINABLE but ultimately inescapable truth is that we are going to have to get ready for war with Iran. Being of a free-speaking, free-thinking disposition, we generally find in the West that hand-wringing, finger-pointing and second-guessing come more easily to us than cold, strategic thinking. Confronted with nightmarish perils we instinctively choose to seize the opportunity to blame each other, cursing our domestic opponents for the situation they’ve put us in.

The rapidly intensifying crisis with regard to Iran exemplifies the phenomenon. On the right, it is said that the decision to let the Europeans play nuclear footsie with the mullahs in Iran for more than two years was a terrible blunder. Pacifist evasion is what the world has come to expect from continental Europe, but the decision by Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, to become an enabler to their procrastinations was of a different order of strategic error. An emboldened Tehran seized the chance to play them all along while advancing its ambitions in great leaps.

On the left the hands are being wrung over Iraq. It is argued that the decision to invade the wrong country has made our situation intolerably worse. Iran was always the bigger threat. While we were chasing phantom nuclear weapons in Mesopotamia, next door Iran was busy building real ones. Now we are enfeebled, militarily and politically, our diplomatic tools blunted beyond repair by the errors in Iraq.

I tend to side more with the former crowd (though let it not be said that the latter do not have a point) but it is important for all of us to understand that this debate is now for the birds. All that matters now is what we do.

The unavoidable reality is that we now need urgently to steel ourselves to the ugly probability that diplomacy will not now suffice: one or way or another, unconscionable acts of war may now be unavoidable.

Those who say war is unthinkable are right. Military strikes, even limited, targeted and accurate ones, will have devastating consequences for the region and for the world. They will, quite probably entrench and harden the Iranian regime. Even the young, hopeful democrats who despise their theocratic rulers and crave the freedoms of the West will pause at the sight of their country burnt and humiliated by the infidels.

A war, even a limited one, will almost certainly raise oil prices to recession-inducing levels, as Iran cuts itself off from global markets. The loss of Iranian supply and the already stretched nature of production in the Arab world and elsewhere means prices of $150 per barrel are easily imaginable. Military strikes will foster more violence in the Middle East, strengthen the insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan, fuel anti-Western sentiment among Muslims everywhere and encourage more terrorism against us at home.

All true. All fearfully powerful arguments against the use of the military option. But multiplied together, squared, and then cubed, the weight of these arguments does not come close to matching the case for us to stop, by whatever means may be necessary, Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

If Iran gets safely and unmolested to nuclear status, it will be a threshold moment in the history of the world, up there with the Bolshevik Revolution and the coming of Hitler. What the country itself may do with those weapons, given its pledges, its recent history and its strategic objectives with regard to the US, Israel and their allies, is well known. We can reasonably assume that the refusal of the current Iranian leadership to accept the Holocaust as historical fact is simply a recognition of their own plans to redefine the notion as soon as they get a chance (“Now this is what we call a holocaust”). But this threat is only, incredibly, a relatively small part of the problem.

If Iran goes nuclear, it will demonstrate conclusively that even the world’s greatest superpower, unrivalled militarily, under a leadership of proven willingness to take bold military steps, could not stop a country as destabilising as Iran from achieving its nuclear ambitions.

No country in a region that is so riven by religious and ethnic hatreds will feel safe from the new regional superpower. No country in the region will be confident that the US and its allies will be able or willing to protect them from a nuclear strike by Iran. Nor will any regional power fear that the US and its allies will act to prevent them from emulating Iran. Say hello to a nuclear Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia.

Iran, of course, secure now behind its nuclear wall, will surely step up its campaign of terror around the world. It will become even more of a magnet and haven for terrorists. The terror training grounds of Afghanistan were always vulnerable if the West had the resolve. Protected by a nuclear-missile-owning state, Iranian camps will become impregnable.

And the kind of society we live in and cherish in the West, a long way from Tehran or Damascus, will change beyond recognition. We balk now at intrusive government measures to tap our phones or stop us saying incendiary things in mosques. Imagine how much more our freedoms will be curtailed if our governments fear we are just one telephone call or e-mail, one plane journey or truckload away from another Hiroshima.

Something short of military action may yet prevail on Iran. Perhaps sanctions will turn their leadership from its doomsday ambitions. Perhaps Russia can somehow be persuaded to give them an incentive to think again. But we can’t count on this optimistic scenario now. And so we must ready ourselves for what may be the unthinkable necessity.

Because in the end, preparation for war, by which I mean not military feasibility planning, or political and diplomatic manoeuvres but a psychological readiness, a personal willingness on all our parts to bear the terrible burdens that it will surely impose, may be our last real chance to ensure that we can avoid one.

[Flavius Josephus]

Hey Stempy, what's the weather report for Tehran tomorrow?

[verity]

"It's a fake, but nice all the same."

Something similar has been said about breast implants. ;-)

[Jackknife]

Ping

[Flavius Josephus]

Bullhockey.

[Flavius Josephus]

and fire up the ole internet.

I know this isn't what you mean, but my cockpit is ready, dual TV screens,one with PIP, computer console and reclining massage chair for those tense moments. I think I need to add another computer for the real time feeds... I have one available here at work, I'd better get on that.

This thread is so much fun I don't want to leave, but I have to go sing at a funeral, so y'all be good.

[EGPWS]

Bullhockey.

NO!

It's "Horse pucky"!

LoL!

[DCPatriot]

"..unconscionable acts of war may now be unavoidable.

If all is fair in love and war...what's an unconscionable act?

Nuclear weapons is why we're going to war.

I say turn those areas of iran into glass and let history decide if President Bush will be viewed as a monster or the West's hero.

[rock58seg]

Why can't we try helping the "student" uprisings, as a way to soften things. I know from past events, there is a large contingent of unrest within Iran. What would be so terrible about encouraging them, on our part.?

[Flavius Josephus]

They're not exactly secret, but they're way out there and can't be easily monitored. Don't you remember when the 10first Airborne took them out early in the war? Don't hear much about them these days. I imagine we have some nice toys there.

[brazzaville]

Good evening.
"This may have been Bushes plan all along."

We now have a professional, experienced military presence smack dab in the middle of Islamistan and the flickering of democracy in countries that are only now coming out of the 8th century.

You've got to love strategery.

Michael Frazier

[blam]

"I guess I need to start filling back up the jerry cans that I bought after Katrina, right?"

FYI. Mine were filled last week, with stabalizer. (about 100 gallons)

[Plutarch]

(Even if it's fake...)

Shhhh...the Iranians don't know its a painting.

[EGPWS]

Rumsfeld said we have 1.4 million active duty troops, and 138K in theater.

He also conveyed the lesser need for troops via the technological advances we have achieved.

[Firefish]

I feel a DRAFT!

[Plutarch]

I haven't heard a peep out of the Democrats to this effect [about Iran being the bigger threat].

No, at the time according to Dems, it was North Korea that was the big threat. They knew we weren't going to do anything right away about North Korea, so they could wax hawkish about North Korea as an alternative to Iraq.

[Dark Skies]

I'm afraid we are going to let Russia pretend to enrich their uranium and give them even more time to develop their weapons as a result. I don't trust them and don't have a lot of trust in Putin right now, either.

Same here. I don't buy that for a minute (and I would bet the Prez doesn't either).

[bill1952]

if oil goes to $150 (first time I've heard that figger

The guy either never heard of, or does not understand,
the concept of "Strategic Reserve," and that scenerio has already been discussed.

We have enough now, thanks in no small part, to Bush's refusal to open the taps for non-strategic reasons, to last 600 days.

And that is enough to both vaporize the leadership and nuclear pretensions of Iran,
and to secure and control the Iranian oilfields.
However, the price would spike well higher than the spot at which it would settle out.

I'm bored with Iran.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

"Fine. Let Britain France and Gemany declare war on Iran and ask the US to join in a coalition. Our response will not likely resemble theirs of 2003."

I don't think you meant to put Britain on this list.

[FreeAtlanta]

We should have turn toward them after taking Bagdad. We could have taken them and Syria very quickly, and we wouldn't be dealing with the "insurgency" that we have had since the end of the war.

[griffin]

"Actually, I think Saddam was the easier target "

What about this view point....Iraq was more of a secular state as well. Might one expect less muslime fanatical reaction to the removal of a regime such as that as opposed to one that is religiously muslime?

I personally have always believed Afghanistan and Iraq were to be bases of operation to work our way through all ME terrorist states. We have Iran squeezed now between two US 'held' fronts, plus Turkey to the North if I'm not mistaken. Not such a bad position for us to be in IMHO.