Six of those nine Republicans are sure things to vote for Alito, including Voinovich (he'll sometimes sell us out but not on judicial nominations). Snowe, Collins, and Chafee are the only possible GOP "No" votes, and I doubt even they will vote "No".
I don't think there is any question that Alito has more than a majority. The interesting question is how many DEMs will cross over, and if they do, how they will time the move, and how they will couch the rationale.
If the "Aye" column reaches 60, there will not be a cloture vote. If the "Aye" column is between 50 and 60, the DEMs are in a pickle. ;-)