You bring up a very good point. The Iranians need to pre-emptively seal the Persian Gulf. They need to cut oil supplies to the West for purely strategic reasons. Shutting down the Strait would also help to prevent a U.S. buildup of forces in Iraq for a land war. And it would help deny acces to the Gulf for carrier based operations. It would be in Iran's best interest to do this if they do intend on conflict. They will also need support from Russia on the north. Watch Russia very closely. If Russia blocks sanctions, or choses to ignore them, we may be facing Russia as an ally of Iran and then we are stalemated. Unless we want a confrontation with Russia. They are flexing their energy muscle with cut-off or reduces supply of natural gas to Europe and former Soviet satellites. I think Russia is serving notice to these countries. If they want energy, they do thins Russia's way. This easily could turn into a global conflict.
[The Iranians need to pre-emptively seal the Persian Gulf. They need to cut oil supplies to the West for purely strategic reasons.]
Sorry, you guys are right. Yes, the Iranians need to do this right away. The Russians will back them.
How long would it take to establish a Mediterranean beach head where Syria was?
Timing seems to be the key here. It's a bit of a game of chicken. The optimum scenario for Iran is to drag this out until they can actually test a nuclear weapon. Once that occurs, the gameboard gets turned over and the Saudis should probably just quietly pack their bags and retire to France.
If Iran feels it cannot reach critical mass before getting bombed by Israel and the U.S., the mullahs will be compelled to stick an economic shiv in the West while gambling that they would only be conventionally attacked, and the theocracy will live to see another day, as will their scientists and whatever knowledge they've compiles. (i.e., the nuclear program is merely delayed, not destroyed). In this circumstance, cutting of oil through the Straits of Hormuz is still a risky proposition since their second biggest customer, China (just after Japan), would bring tremendous pressure on Tehran to stand down - a humiliating concept for the mullahs, but one they have to consider before doing something rash. If they're going to invite a bombing and tell the Chinese to kiss off, they may go for broke and
1) Block the straits
2) Engage the U.S. in a race for the Saudi oil fields, drawing our military away from Baghdad at a crucial juncture and probably resulting in an all-out civil war in Iraq.
4) Meanwhile, with the U.S. engaged with Iran, Israel directs its energies toward Damascus and Southern Lebanon.
5) Egypt, facing out of control violence with Gaza, and fearing spillover of unrest into Cairo, has no choice but to enter Gaza and take control of the situation with assurances to Israel they're not targeting the Holy Land. Strangely enough, at this point, Israel probably welcomes Egyptian troops to quell the Palestinians while dealing with Syria.
6) Oil is $100 a barrel, easy. Conventional attacks begin on Tehran, with growing pressure on the West to launch a nuclear strike and decapitate the entire government.
7) President Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah declare the return of Mahdi imminent, declaring war on Europe and Israel, inciting widespread violence in Paris, Madrid, London, Brussels, and Rome.
8) At this point, our forces are thinned out from Baghdad to Riyadh to Kuwait City. Suddenly, the lynchpin in the region is Amman, Jordan. The king knows his city is strategically important in a MidEast-wide conflict. His best chance at surviving is to hitch his wagon to the U.S., but cannot publicly accept Israeli military assistance.
9) Now we're stuck. Let's say at this point we nuke Tehran because the situation is out of control. At this point, Muslims unite across Europe and make the Paris riots look like dress rehearsal for a performance of Les Miserables.
10) Elsewhere, India, fearing the collapse of the Musharraf regime, is ready on a hair-trigger to reduce Karachi and Islamabad to radioactive waste if the whipped-up Islamist street succeeds in a coup.
This is what Iran can do WITHOUT a nuclear weapon in its arsenal, if it's willing to sacrifice its existence in the name of ruining Israel and the world economy.