[Canadian] Conservative Lead Continues

SES Research ^ | 1/22/06 | CPAC/SES Research

[conservative in nyc]

Final SES Research Poll (Jan 20-22):
Conservative - 36.4% (-0.6% from previous day's poll)
Liberal - 30.1% (+2.0%)
NDP - 17.4% (-0.3%)
Bloc Quebecois - 10.6% (-0.7%)
Green - 5.6% (-0.4%)
MOE +/-3.1%

SES January 22 ONLY (All Voters):
Conservative - 33.2% (-4.4% from 1/21)
Liberal - 30.4% (+3.2%)
NDP - 22.2% (+5.9%)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.4% (-4.1%)
Green - 4.8% (-0.5%)
MOE +/- 5.3%

[conservative in nyc]

Latest Canadian poll numbers with regional breakdowns. I don't know if any other polling firm will release new data:

Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	36.4%	30.1%	17.4%	10.6%	5.6%	Jan 20-22	3.1%
Latest Ipsos Reid	38%	26%	19%	11%	5%	Jan 17-19	2.2%
Latest Ekos	37.1%	26.9%	19.5%	11.5%	4.6%	Jan 18-20	2.0%
Latest Strategic Counsel/CTV	37%	27%	18%	11%	6%	Jan 18-19, 21	2.2%
Latest Leger	38%	29%	17%	11%	-	Jan 12-17	2.1%
Latest Decima	37%	27%	18%	11%	-	Jan 12-15	3.1%
Actual 2004	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.3%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	30%	34%	20%	12%	4%	June 20-24	< 4.1%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	31%	32%	17%	12%	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	31.8%	32.6%	19.0%	11.2%	4.9%	June 21-24	1.4%

Ontario	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	36%	38%	20%	-	6%	Jan 20-22	5.1%
Latest Ipsos Reid	38%	34%	21%	-	5%	Jan 17-19	3.5%
Latest Ekos	35.8%	33.4%	24.3%	-	6.3%	Jan 18-20	3.2%
Latest Strategic Counsel/CTV	37%	37%	21%	-	6%	Jan 18-19, 21	3.6%
Latest Leger	39%	37%	19%	-	-	Jan 12-17	UNK
Latest Decima	36%	39%	18%	-	-	Jan 12-15	UNK
Actual 2004	31.5%	44.7%	18.1%	0.0%	4.4%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	32%	39%	25%	1%	4%	June 20-24	5.0%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	34%	38%	20%	-	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	35%	38%	21%	-	5%	June 21-24	UNK

Quebec	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	27%	19%	8%	42%	3%	Jan 20-22	6.2%
Latest Ipsos Reid	27%	14%	9%	46%	3%	Jan 17-19	4.5%
Latest Ekos	24.5%	12.7%	7.9%	50.2%	3.4%	Jan 18-20	3.9%
Last Strategic Counsel/CTV	24%	15%	8%	47%	7%	Jan 18-19, 21	4.4%
Latest Leger	26%	20%	8%	42%	-	Jan 12-17	UNK
Latest Decima	25%	14%	11%	45%	-	Jan 12-15	UNK
Actual 2004	8.8%	33.9%	4.6%	48.9%	3.2%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	11%	28%	7%	51%	3%	June 20-24	5.9%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	9%	33%	5%	48%	5%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	11%	28%	7%	51%	3%	June 21-24	UNK
Final Leger 2004	11%	33%	4%	48%	-	Released June 27	UNK

Atlantic Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	29%	44%	22%	-	5%	Jan 20-22	11.0%
Latest Ipsos Reid	39%	37%	22%	-	2%	Jan 17-19	8.0%
Latest Ekos	35.0%	39.9%	24.5%	-	0.6%	Jan 16-19	6.6%
Latest Leger	38%	38%	22%	-	2%	Jan 12-17	UNK
Omnifacts Bristol/HCH	37%	45%	16%	-	2% (Other)	Jan 10-12	2.5%
Actual 2004	30.0%	43.8%	22.6%	0.0%	3.0%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	24%	45%	25%	2%	4%	June 20-24	8.6%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	23%	44%	26%	-	7%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	33%	39%	28%	-	0%	June 21-24	UNK

Prairies	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	47%	25%	23%	-	5%	Jan 18-22	8.5%
Latest Ipsos Reid	47%	26%	23%	-	2%	Jan 17-19	8.5%
Latest Ekos	44.0%	27.8%	24.0%	-	3.8%	Jan 16-19	6.6%
Latest Leger	42%	30%	21%	-	5%	Jan 12-17	UNK
Actual 2004	40.4%	30.3%	23.4%	0%	2.7%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	39%	34%	24%	1%	2%	June 20-24	8.5%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	36%	32%	25%	-	5%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	37%	29%	30%	-	5%	June 21-24	UNK

Alberta	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	55%	18%	19%	-	7%	Jan 18-22	7.5%
Last Ipsos Reid	64%	13%	8%	-	12%	Jan 17-19	7.1%
Latest Ekos	64.5%	14.3%	14.0%	-	6.8%	Jan 16-19	5.8%
Latest Leger	61%	19%	12%	-	6%	Jan 12-17	UNK
Actual 2004	61.7%	22.0%	9.5%	0.0%	6.1%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	62%	23%	13%	-	2%	June 20-24	8.3%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	59%	20%	11%	-	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	58%	23%	12%	-	7%	June 21-24	UNK

B.C.	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	34%	36%	23%	-	7%	Jan 18-22	6.3%
Last Ipsos Reid	35%	27%	29%	-	7%	Jan 17-19	5.9%
Latest Ekos	36.0%	30.1%	28.9%	-	4.9%	Jan 16-19	4.9%
Latest Strategic Counsel/CTV	36%	28%	31%	-	5%	Jan 18-19, 21	6.0%
Latest Leger	40%	26%	26%	-	7%	Jan 12-17	UNK
Actual 2004	36.3%	28.6%	26.6%	0.0%	6.3%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	38%	28%	28%	-	6%	June 20-24	7.2%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	44%	24%	22%	-	8%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	34%	30%	27%	-	7%	June 21-24	UNK

[Chi-townChief]

Let's hope they're not fooling us again.

[West Coast Conservative]

The last Ipsos just came out, with 11,000 sample. CPC 38%, Libs 27%.

http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/story.html?id=a3de7dbe-ab46-4445-b243-677f9e3c147f

[conservative in nyc]

Ping.

I don't think any poll results can be released tomorrow, so any other new numbers will come tonight.

UNK in the MOE column means Unknown. It's very likely higher than the national poll breakdown for that poll.

Because Strategic Counsel's Prairie numbers include Alberta as well as Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they are not included in the charts. Strategic Counsel didn't release Atlantic Canada numbers in their most recent report; Decima did not release anything other than Canada, Ontario and Quebec.

[conservative in nyc]

DOH! I'll try to find the breakdowns and add them.

[Brilliant]

Oh, Canada -- you're not really going to elect a Conservative majority on Monday, are you? That's a joke, right? I know you have a great sense of humor, and certainly a well-developed sense of irony, but this is no longer funny. Maybe it's a new form of Canadian irony -- reverse irony! OK, now I get it.

--Michael Moore

[spanalot]

It ain't over till the Fat Man cries the Blues - and he just did

[fanfan]

Excellent post!

Thank you. :-D

Canada Ping!

Please FReepmail me to get on or off this Canada ping list.

[LdSentinal]

Polls are all over the place. Just get out and vote!

[conservative in nyc]

All I could get out of the CanWest/Global Article (and Free Dominion, so far) is the national breakdown. Here's a revised chart. With a sample of 11,000, the MOE must be very, very low - less than 2%:

Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	36.4%	30.1%	17.4%	10.6%	5.6%	Jan 20-22	3.1%
Final  Ipsos Reid/Global	38%	27%	19%	12%	4% (Other)	Jan 18-22(?)	(?)
Latest Ekos	37.1%	26.9%	19.5%	11.5%	4.6%	Jan 18-20	2.0%
Latest Strategic Counsel/CTV	37%	27%	18%	11%	6%	Jan 18-19, 21	2.2%
Latest Leger	38%	29%	17%	11%	-	Jan 12-17	2.1%
Latest Decima	37%	27%	18%	11%	-	Jan 12-15	3.1%
Actual 2004	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.3%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	30%	34%	20%	12%	4%	June 20-24	< 4.1%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	31%	32%	17%	12%	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	31.8%	32.6%	19.0%	11.2%	4.9%	June 21-24	1.4%

[conservative in nyc]

The polls (except in places like Atlantic Canada, where the margin of error is very high due to small samples) are actually fairly in line with each other. But the only poll that counts will come out tomorrow night.

Ipsos Reid/Global seat projection (308 Total; 155 Majority):
Conservative - 150
Liberal - 64
Bloc Quebecois - 58
NDP - 36

The numbers are not in the story; they are in the video linked in the story.

University of B.C. Election Stock Market seat projection:
Conservative - 128
Liberal - 92
Bloc Quebecois - 55
NDP - 32
Other - 1

I think the results will be closer to the UBC projections than Ipsos Reid's numbers.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

If these projections hold true, the CPC will be able to cherry pick a few votes from MPs among the Grits and in the Bloc. Within a month, W ought to invite Harper to the WH.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

One thing that these polls do not measure is the number of folks who have already voted. It also does not measure the effect of dispirited libs not showing up to the polls. It could turn into a real rout a la 1980 in the USA.

[Torie]

If SES is right, the Conservatives will get about 115-120 seats. The losses in BC might get up to 7 seats or so, and there will be no gain in Atlantic Canada.

[Sam Gamgee]

Jan 22 poll shows the CPC back with the same support as the Liberals! Ah shit. Oh well, I guess it was too good to be true.

[Sam Gamgee]

Jan 22 poll shows the CPC back with the same support as the Liberals! Ah shit. Oh well, I guess it was too good to be true.

[conservative in nyc]

SES' MOE in Atlantic Canada is very high. They underestimated Conservative support in 2004, and are underestimating it this time, as compared to other polls with smaller MOEs. I don't expect big Tories pickups in Atlantic Canada - there will likely be 1 seat in Newfoundland, 2 or 3 in New Brunswick and maybe 1 in Nova Scotia.

SES' polls in B.C., unfortunately, look like a trend. Strategic Counsel's final poll has the B.C. numbers at 32%-31%-32% - literally a tie.

I'm updating the charts, to put on the next Canadian election thread.

[Torie]

Democraticspace just handed three more seats to the Tories in Ontario. I guess the Liberals saw their support go up in safe Toronto precincts, and down elsewhere, or the NP voters are not playing ball with strategic voting. He still doesn't label it "final." He must be getting a headache.

[conservative in nyc]

The Ontario internals are all over the place, depending on whose poll you look at and how they define the "905" ridings. One poll even showed the Liberals further ahead in the 905 (suburban Toronto) than the 416 (urban Toronto). I didn't bother breaking them down in a chart, since the definitions aren't standard. The 905 can be defined as just Suburban Toronto or to include the "Golden Horseshoe" area near Niagara Falls - both are technically in the area code. You can see the breakdowns yourself (and, in some cases, breakdowns for Quebec and B.C.) by clicking on the links in the chart.

[Torie]

Someone on Free Dominion said the -17% Torie deficit in 905 was an typo. I am not so sure.