Posted on 01/22/2006 2:15:49 PM PST by new yorker 77
WASHINGTON - Supreme Court nominee Samuel A. Alito Jr. appears certain to be approved Tuesday by the Senate Judiciary Committee in a straight, 10-8 party-line vote, setting the stage for a vigorous floor debate that will culminate in Alito's confirmation.
The Republicans have won the latest judicial battle - but the war over the divisive issues that dominated his hearings has only intensified, according to legal experts.
In fact, the 12-week process since his Oct. 31 nomination spotlighted the polarization of politics between Democrats and Republicans, particularly on abortion, executive power, individual rights, and other contentious matters destined for the docket of the Supreme Court.
Senate Judiciary Chairman Arlen Specter (R., Pa.), still smarting over the Democrats' insistence on delaying the Alito vote for a week, said the expected party-line vote in his panel "says more about the Senate than the nominee."
"Positions have really hardened," he said in an interview. "People who have voted for [Chief Justice John G.] Roberts don't want to cross party lines twice."
Three Democrats on the committee joined the 10 Republicans voting for Roberts' nomination last fall. One of them, ranking Democrat Patrick Leahy of Vermont, has already said he will not vote for Alito.
The party-line split is a "healthy reminder" that not all Supreme Court nominations are alike, said legal scholar Sarah Binder of George Washington University.
"When the question was whether to replace William H. Rehnquist with another conservative, some Democrats were willing to vote for Roberts," Binder said.
"But when the nomination is to fill a swing or critical seat - a nominee who could swing the ideological direction of the court - the opposition party is more likely to object if it feels the nomination will swing the court against its interests," she said. Alito would succeed retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, a frequent swing vote on social issues.
Alito, a 15-year member of the Philadelphia-based Third Circuit federal appeals court, met with more senators last week, mainly Democrats, hoping to increase his vote margin.
The White House predicted that Alito would garner 60 to 70 Senate votes - Roberts drew 78 - but that seems overly optimistic. For one thing, Democrats want to withhold votes and reduce his winning margin so that Alito can be used as a campaign issue in future elections.
"A 'no' vote is an easy vote," Specter said. "When you vote 'aye,' you're somewhat on the line for what the guy is going to do."
Legal experts say the intense politicizing of the confirmation process means that any hint of a judge's ideology can kill a nomination.
"In the present climate, really superb professional qualifications are essential to insulate a nominee from the inescapable ideological sticks and stones," said legal historian David J. Garrow of Cambridge University.
Alito will prevail, Garrow said, because there "really was no question about his personal and professional qualifications," while White House counsel Harriet Miers - President Bush's initial choice for O'Connor's seat - "went down the tubes" because "everyone realized she was a judicial turkey."
Five years of the Bush administration and a pair of new Supreme Court justices have changed the face of the federal judiciary.
"Certainly the impact of unified Republican control has been registered on the federal courts, as the proportion of Republican-appointed judges has increased markedly," Binder said. More than 200 federal judicial nominees of Bush's have been confirmed.
"The confirmation process itself shows the strains of strongly polarized political parties, at odds over the range of divisive issues that routinely come before the Supreme Court," Binder said.
Said Specter: "It's not just the confirmation process, it's the whole Senate - it's everything we do."
Specter cited the increasing acrimony over the reauthorization of the Patriot Act as an example and said that partisanship over the issue had caused deep strains on the Senate Intelligence Committee.
He said he was determined not to let such "bickering" destroy what he called the "equilibrium" on the Judiciary Committee.
In that vein, Specter spoke disparagingly of what he called "a clumsy ambush" by Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D., Mass.) over Alito's alleged past membership in the Concerned Alumni of Princeton, a conservative group.
Specter said Kennedy waited until Alito's hearing was in progress to request documents on the group, though the Democrat had many prior opportunities to raise the issue with Specter.
As President Bush has proceeded to put a Republican imprint on all levels of the federal bench, Democrats have increased their scrutiny of his nominees.
Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) contends that only vigorous opposition has led Bush to refrain from selecting even more conservative judicial nominees.
Alito is an example, Schumer said. Legal observers think Alito is not as conservative as some candidates Bush was considering.
Asked whether he agreed with Schumer's assertion, Specter said, "If Sen. Schumer wants to take some credit for that, I won't stand in his way."
But how conservative will Alito be?
"I expect Alito will certainly be closer to [Justice Antonin] Scalia than to O'Connor," Garrow said, "and very likely will be closer to Scalia than [to] Roberts."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contact staff writer Steve Goldstein at 202-383-6048 or slgoldstein@krwashington.com.
I do hope you're correct but when W picked Miers I believe it was a toe in the water for a moderate.
You have more faith in W than I do, I don't think he will upset the balance of the court and I think Laura will influence that decision.
" Why isn't everybody deriding the idea that there is a "swing" seat on the court? "
It's a 'grasping at straws' attempt. Biden was quite verbose in describing how who you replace matters etc.
Swing seat? Well, it won't be a 'swing seat' for very long.
"Reid will point to the votes against Alito, which will be more than 40. He will claim that "We had enough votes to filibuster, but we decided to be nice guys."
Ah, but if says that, the moonbats will go crazy and start throwing furniture. Someone on Redstate made a prediction of exactly 62 votes for Alito, where there will be nobody responsible for the failure to have a filibuster, but the lowest vote possible otherwise.
"I think the next pick will be a moderate like O'Connor just because of the hearings being so brutal. "
Gosh, these hearing *were* brutal ... for the Democrats.
Alito and Roberts ran rings around the Dem Senators.
Whoever the nominee is - garza, Luttig, Jones, or a moderate - I hope they are brilliant legal minds that embarrass the Dems yet again. Miers never could have done that, so it disproves fundamentally the lie that moderate nominees will have an easier time. Wrong - HIGHLY QUALIFIED and brilliant nominees will make it, so long as their ideology is defensible.
Then let really, turly polarize already!
The moveon.org Michael Moore base will go truly insane if Alito gets confirmed without a filibuster but with less than 60 votes.
Their own base will committ Democide and we'll pick up Senate seats we'd never imaginge in this scenario.
No, Reid needs to get the Alito vote total to 60 to prevent the moveon.org meltdown over not filibustering the "filibusterable" justice.
Well, that's Taranto's theory, but Reid doesn't appear to be following the program.
So far I see only one Dem, Bill Nelson , voting for Alito and one saying she will vote against him but will not support a filibuster (Feinstein). Have I missed something?
Write Frist. If he will not pull the trigger in the face of a filibuster he should resign now and be replaced by someone who will.
You're right, Reid can't afford to have the votes at less than 60. As a matter of fact, he would be far safer if the votes are over 70. If it's too close to the 60 he'll be accused of not having enough control to pull off a filabuster. At 70 or more it's out of his hands.
I am somewhat astounded that many Dimorat Senators like Scummer from New York have not become impregnated, from all the self screwing they are doing to their own party.
We should tell Chaffee and the Maine sisters that they are voting no (on confirmation, not cloture), so we can really put the Dims in a vise
I believe one of the lessons of the Alito nomination is that the 'rats crying Wolf over right wing extremists no longer serves to alarm or arouse the populace. The people have heard leftwing catastrophizing for too many years, and most things have gotten better for them instead of the sky falling in. Crackpot leftwing pressure groups spent millions on ads and campaigning and got virtually no response. I think the 'rats are out of gas and need a new game plan.
"Now if Ginsberg or Steven resigns ....."
Or both die, which is my preference. Then souter resigns...
I fervently hope that is not the takeaway from the Alito hearings, because I think the American people are ready to turn off the leftwing ranting and raving. They have had enough of Kennedy, Biden, Schumer and the rest of the degenerate left. I believe this because even the MSM buzz after the hearings was all about what a bunch of a-holes the 'rats were instead of how dangerous and deceptive the nominee was.
I think GW can nominate just about anyone he wants, next time, and more egregious behavior by the 'rats will really boomerang.
How many RAT senators are up for re-election and where are they from, Blue or Red states? Those from Red states could be in trouble with the electorate if they vote against Alito. Nelson, Dim of Nebraska has already said he would vote for Alito possibly staving off a conservative back-lash at the urns.
Wait until we replace Ruthie.
Most of the RAT members of the committee left the room when these people were testifying about Alito's great legal qualities so they failed to hear it. Scoundrels!
Just wish 'em off the court, and God's will be done. Maybe they'll "decide to pursue other opportunities," or something.
Schumer and the libs, by their smear campaign against Alito, pretty well assured that he'd be out to get them whenever he could, and HE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES.
I still think Miers was a rope-a-dope.
I said it from the beginning and I continue to believe it today.
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