Posted on 01/22/2006 4:57:28 AM PST by goldstategop
OTTAWA -- If the Conservatives triumph at the polls tomorrow, Stephen Harper's victory celebration will come to an abrupt end with a tricky bit of business known affectionately in the political biz as every prime minister's first nightmare -- building a cabinet.
The one cabinet seat Harper has promised is to Lawrence Cannon who is running in the Quebec riding of Pontiac, north of Ottawa. (It's a no-brainer anyway -- the former provincial minister, if he wins, is infinitely qualified, and would likely be one of only a handful of Conservative MPs elected in the province.)
Other than that, Harper has refused to speculate about his cabinet-making intentions, in part because some of the possibilities may not have been helpful to a campaign built on allaying voter queasiness about a Conservative government.
A recent edition of the diplomatic weekly newspaper Embassy, for instance, carried a front-page colour picture of Stockwell Day, and a story speculating that Mr. Wetsuit may well become the new face of Canada abroad as foreign affairs minister in a Harper cabinet.
Talk about a ready-made Liberal attack ad.
Truth is, doling out the limo keys is one of the toughest tasks facing any PM, but even more so for a neophyte leader of a newborn party taking power for the first time.
As always, Harper will be faced with a dizzying matrix of considerations in making his cabinet picks -- geography, gender, ethnicity, experience, political IOUs, electoral strategies and last but sometimes least, the ability to head a multibillion-dollar ministry with thousands of employees and 34 million shareholders watching every move.
In Harper's case, there is another key factor that will come into play -- namely, whether the Conservatives win a majority or a minority.
If it is a minority, Harper may try to minimize the learning curve for his new ministry by moving some existing opposition critics into their corresponding portfolios in government.
If the Conservatives get a majority and the luxury of up to five years in office, experience in government and familiarity with the issues of a specific portfolio would not be essential job qualifications for cabinet.
That said, whatever the size of a Conservative win Monday night, Harper's biggest cabinet-building headache will be deciding whom to leave out.
Most of Harper's friends and loyalists are Alberta MPs, as are a disproportionately large number of other highly capable members of party -- in fact, too many for all of them to be included in a regionally balanced cabinet.
Calgary MP Lee Richardson and Kevin Sorenson from Crowfoot, for instance, should both be in the cabinet, but may well get squeezed out in the Alberta overload.
Over the past week, we asked various Conservative insiders who they think would occupy the front bench of a Conservative government. The picture that emerges is a cabinet full of talent, intelligence, experience and, surprisingly, youth.
- Monte Solberg (Alberta): After eight years as an effective, bright, finance critic, he is widely touted for the top Finance job. But there is also a school that thinks an Alberta PM will pick an Ontario finance minister, and that Solberg may get Industry or even Foreign Affairs instead.
- Jim Flaherty (Ontario): The former provincial finance minister is another obvious for the same post in a Harper government. He's been there, done it, and that would help settle nerves on Bay Street.
- Lawrence Cannon (Quebec): Harper's deputy chief of staff is one of three Quebec candidates with a shot at winning a seat in cabinet, precisely because they may be the only Quebecers to win a seat in government. If elected, Cannon is a shoo-in for Deputy PM, Quebec lieutenant, and possibly Industry or a regional development portfolio.
- Rona Ambrose (Alberta): A shooting star in the Conservative caucus, the 35-year-old from Edmonton is smart, tough, and every newspaper's favorite photo-op (and I mean that kindly). She previously worked as a senior official at Intergovernmental Affairs in the Alberta government, and could be heading for federal-provincial relations or even Health in a Harper administration.
- Diane Ablonczy (Alberta): One of the most experienced and respected members of the Conservative front row, she has the talent and mettle that could land her in Health or Immigration.
- Peter MacKay (Nova Scotia): A decisive Harper win tomorrow would eliminate the need to pander to the former PC leader and current deputy Tory leader for the sake of party unity, especially after his stupid "take-your-knitting-and-go-home" gaffe on Friday. Nonetheless, MacKay is a former Crown attorney, and would be a moderate voice to sell the Conservative get-tough-on-criminals program, either as minister of justice or public security. He may even be in the offing for Foreign Affairs.
- Vic Toews (Manitoba): The current justice critic has been the party's law-and-order voice, but may be a bit too over-the-top for Justice. A better bet is either Public Security or Solicitor General in charge of the Mounties, and shutting down the gun registry.
- Gordon O'Connor (Ontario): The retired general and the party's defence critic seems a natural for the Defence portfolio. But it is also a department buried in campaign spending promises that will be tough to keep, and is one of the worst bureaucratic operations in government to manage.
- Ted Menzies (Alberta): The former grain farmer and opposition critic for international trade boasts personal relationships with high-ranking U.S. agriculture and trade officials, and is likely headed for Trade or Agriculture.
- John Baird (Ontario): A former provincial social services minister, he is young, sharp and an excellent communicator. Some analysts tag him as possible Treasury Board president responsible for the public service.
- Peter Kent (Ontario): The former broadcaster is in a tough battle to become what may one of the few Conservatives elected in downtown Toronto, a Liberal stronghold. If so, he is being touted as a candidate for International Development.
- Brian Pallister (Manitoba): Known for his tendency towards excessive rhetoric in opposition, he may be headed for a quieter portfolio such as Canada Revenue.
- Lynne Yelich (Saskatchewan): A dedicated, tough and savvy MP, her work as the critic for families and caregivers has earned her a cabinet position, probably in a similar social policy portfolio.
- Jim Prentice (Alberta): One of the brightest lights in the Conservative caucus, he may suffer the consequence of knowing more about aboriginal affairs than most officials in the department, and become the minister of it. Alternatively, he has been tagged for Foreign Affairs or a senior economic portfolio.
- Jay Hill (British Columbia): The Conservative House leader in this last zoo-like session of Parliament, his experience will be crucial, especially if the government has to navigate the tricky waters of another minority.
- Peter Van Loan (Ontario): The former president of both the Ontario and national PC parties, he is regarded as a brilliant strategist and a close adviser to Harper. He may be headed for that administrative monster called Human Resources of which he has been opposition critic.
- Tony Clement (Ontario): An infinitely qualified and capable former provincial health minister, he would be an excellent choice for the same portfolio at the federal level. But first he has to get elected, and so far he has lost two elections and two leadership bids in a row.
- James Rajotte (Alberta): Another of the young (35) turks in opposition, his low-key style belies a smart and capable MP who is liked and respected by Harper sufficiently to have made him Industry critic. He is regarded as a good candidate for an economic portfolio.
- Loyola Hearn (Newfoundland): The former provincial education minister is a pro, and a good bet for Fisheries.
- Greg Thompson (New Brunswick): A regional pick who is likely headed for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, or maybe Veterans Affairs to help handle the Agent Orange file.
- Diane Finley (Ontario): The party's capable agriculture critic (and wife of Harper's chief of staff), she is a good candidate for the farm portfolio, or something on the social policy side.
- Bev Oda (Ontario): The critic for Canadian Heritage may well find herself heading the department.
- Helena Guergis (Ontario): Another young, bright and telegenic member of Harper's shadow cabinet, she is regarded as a solid candidate for Immigration or a portfolio in one of the social policy ministries.
- Stockwell Day (B.C.): What to do with Stock? He will be in cabinet, but where? The former Alberta finance minister seems to have undergone political rehab since his disastrous turn as leader of the former Canadian Alliance, and has talents to burn in a cabinet post. But don't look for
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
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