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To: conservative in nyc

The media was all over the conservatives today.

The media is throwing itself into the story. A reporter was screaming she was assaulted by the big bad tories in quebec and the media is speculating how much it will hurt them.

The media is also making a big deal that harper wanted to focus on the campaign and didn't want anymore press conferences.

The media is throwing everything at harper to keep Paul Martin in power.


Polls were off 6-7 points last time and the media is going all out after harper.

The conservatives will be under 120 seats. The election will be decided in 905 in ontario and how many bloc voters vote conservative in ontario.

Looking at the races I have the liberals getting at least 103 seats. If the liberals can tip over 12 more close seats they put Paul Martin back in a minority govt.

Harper needs 115 seats to win. Right now it looks about

119 conservative 34 percent

103 liberal 31 percent

58 bloc

28 ndp

Harper needs to stop the bleeding from yesterday


4 posted on 01/22/2006 12:56:08 AM PST by johnmecainrino
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To: johnmecainrino

That's hard to do when the media is so downright biased.

The front page of every newspaper is full of negative atricles. Harper needs to stay the course. People can see through the liberal media B.S. It's the exact same crap they did in 2004. Quebec is better than the media is reporting, and some poles show Harper in the 40% range.

With a shift towards the NDP for some die-hard liberal voters, That may just split the vote enough to give Harper a seat as well. So while a poll may say the seat is going NDP or Liberal, it may actually go to the Harper's PC's.
Last election Harper would have won many more seats if the NDP would have siphoned off a few more liberal votes.


8 posted on 01/22/2006 1:06:36 AM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: johnmecainrino
In the morning, if I have time, I'll try to put together a chart including ACTUAL 2004 results vs. today's polling. I'll add the FINAL 2004 polling if I can find the breakdowns. Suffice it to say the world is NOT coming to an end. For example:

Ipsos Reid Ontario 2006:
* Conservatives: 38%
* Liberals: 34%
* NDP: 21%
* Greens: 5%

Ipsos Reid Ontario 2004:
* Liberals: 38%
* Conservatives: 34%
* NDP: 20%
* Greens: 6%

A 4-point swing for both the Liberals and Tories.

ACTUAL Ontario 2004:
* Liberals: 45% (Ipsos off by 7)
* Conservatives: 32% (Ipsos off by 2)
* NDP: 18% (Ipsos off by 2)
* Greens: 4% (Ipsos off by 2)

NDP & Green support swung to the Liberals at the last minute due to scare tactics that worked (and the fact that the younger folks TELL pollsters they will vote when they don't - and the NDP and Greens have younger supporters. This time - the TORIES are doing best among older voters). The scare tactics aren't working this time. 2/3rds of the voters want a new government.
18 posted on 01/22/2006 1:32:29 AM PST by conservative in nyc
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To: johnmecainrino; goldstategop
I do agree with you that things are trending toward a Conservative minority government. The smart money at the University of B.C. Election Stock Market is currently at:

Conservative 128
Liberal 91
Bloc 54
NDP 34
Other 1
20 posted on 01/22/2006 1:38:03 AM PST by conservative in nyc
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