In the morning, if I have time, I'll try to put together a chart including ACTUAL 2004 results vs. today's polling. I'll add the FINAL 2004 polling if I can find the breakdowns. Suffice it to say the world is NOT coming to an end. For example:
Ipsos Reid Ontario 2006:
* Conservatives: 38%
* Liberals: 34%
* NDP: 21%
* Greens: 5%
Ipsos Reid Ontario 2004:
* Liberals: 38%
* Conservatives: 34%
* NDP: 20%
* Greens: 6%
A 4-point swing for both the Liberals and Tories.
ACTUAL Ontario 2004:
* Liberals: 45% (Ipsos off by 7)
* Conservatives: 32% (Ipsos off by 2)
* NDP: 18% (Ipsos off by 2)
* Greens: 4% (Ipsos off by 2)
NDP & Green support swung to the Liberals at the last minute due to scare tactics that worked (and the fact that the younger folks TELL pollsters they will vote when they don't - and the NDP and Greens have younger supporters. This time - the TORIES are doing best among older voters). The scare tactics aren't working this time. 2/3rds of the voters want a new government.
Tha would be an interesting comparison. I think you are right about the young voter thing too.
CTV had also pulled a poll today. Strange. The media has really turned around on Harper, It's so blatantly obvious, but debates on local TV go well for the conservatives regardless.
I think he will pull out a majority , he has the momentum, while the Liberals are just screwing up and doing stupid things, like one candidate telling a Canadian WW2 veteran that if he didn't like a Liberal Canada, he could move to the USA. That was somewhere in Ontario. Of course, the media won't say a damn thing. Disgusting.