Posted on 01/21/2006 3:29:05 PM PST by JulieRNR21
It is so tragic. And all the Harris supporters are going to be screaming at us when she loses by 10% in November, blaming us because we were trying to avert this disaster and cite OBVIOUS facts. What part of "she has had 5 years to expand her appeal (and has failed miserably)" do these guys fail to comprehend ? The ideology isn't the problem here... the candidate is. Her candidacy is toxic, so why do we have to commit seppaku to appease these folks just to prove we were right ? Crazy.
Hey, now, I hope you're not sipping from the Harris kool-aid punchbowl, too !
I saw you in the thread about AK last night, I think Mayor Mark Begich has officially declared you persona non grata numero uno in Anchorage. *snicker* ;-)
Julie, in 2004 I posted multiple threads on FR showing how strong John Thune was in the polls. I stayed up all night waiting for his victory to be projected.
As for Florida polls, didn't you see these polls showing other conservative Republicans polling stronger than Harris is? People like Congressman Dave Weldon and state House Speaker Allen Bense, who are virtually unknown outside their districts, run closer to Nelson than Harris, who is better-known than the incumbent. These results show in Republican polling firms, not just Democrat ones.
Doesn't this tell you something? Shouldn't it show Harris something?
And there you have it.
Good thing she's running in Florida.
Some of us have written you off as a conservative years ago.
The best the GOP can do is to break even in 2006. McCain and Guiliani will be campaigning for GOP candidates across the nation. I predict these headlines in the media:
If the GOP holds the line on Senate - "MSM Headline: Presidential Starpower of Moderates McCain and Guiliani preserve slim GOP majority."
If the GOP loses Senate seats - "MSM Headline: Right-Wing, Fundie James Dobson drags GOP into sewer."
Bump that.
Do any of the pundits of pessimism you pinged realize that McBride was leading Bush in the 2002 race for governor by 12 points, in the polls, shortly before the election? Final results: Bush 56% McBride: 43%.
Fortunately, Florida voters didn't throw in the towel when the MSM told them to do so. Maybe that's why we're a red state with only one remaining statewide democrat. With the pubbies coming together, Nelson's liberal voting record will be exposed and Harris will gain in the polls.
Harris will be a reliable conservative vote in the Senate. Harris can win and all the hand wringing about her negatives, or her being controversial, is nonsense, and serves as a sad commentary on the lack of optimism that should define Conservatives.
LOL. Wise move.
Do you think we ENJOY pointing out that Harris, given her heroic holding-like-a-stonewall against the liberal media hordes in 2000, CANNOT win this Senate race ? It's heartbreaking to a LOT of us. It's all disingenuous you ignore all the warnings that couldn't be more obvious if you were hit in the face with a cowpie. Remember, if you think I'm advocating running some squish "moderate" in her place, you're sadly mistaken. It's not the IDEOLOGY that is flawed, it is the candidate. You guys need to wake up to that reality.
"Anybody remember little Tommy Daschle getting beat by John Thune? Did you contribute to Thune's campaign or go on SD threads saying that Thune can't win?"
Given that Thune had the election STOLEN from him from Tim Johnson in '02, there was virtually not a single solitary FReeper who thought he was not deserving to face that weasely little midget Daschle. You'll see that this comparison has no validity next to the Harris-Nelson contest, because Thune had VERY HIGH personal approval ratings, in stark contrast to Harris.
"Well many Freepers all over this country (including moi) did make contributions to Thune! And that made all the difference!"
Good, and we thank you for that.
"Any Freeper who wants to see another GOP vote in the Senate needs to get behind Harris!"
All of us on here could contribute a fortune to her candidacy, but unless she can turn around the HUGE negatives she has amongst Florida voters, which accounts for the huge deficit she is at in the polls, she won't win. Some problems even money can't solve when virtually everyone in FL has their mind made up where Harris is concerned. BTW, in the Daschle-Thune race, at no point was Thune EVER 25% down in the polls. They were at parity for the entire campaign. Another something worth pointing out.
"I'm sorry that her candidacy disturbs you so much but many of us in the Florida Grassroots are not intimidated by the polls (which incidentally said that Martinez couldn't win) and we are ready, willing & able to work very hard for Harris!"
I don't know what polls you were reading, but Martinez was always a strong candidate, and I was backing his candidacy from the day he declared, as were a lot of FReepers. Even a Martinez comparison wouldn't apply, since Martinez didn't have the negative baggage that Harris had (why do you think the WH decided to back him over Harris ?).
Cheer up and don't be paranoid. :) Actually things in the Senate look quite a bit better than they did a month ago. They just don't look better in Florida, and I don't anticipate that they will.
The newspapers here always refer to him as a "moderate democrat". No hidden agenda or bias here. But they always did the same thing for Bob Graham.
Voting records mean nothing to the liberal press. BN is way out in left field, but most of the voters here are too ignorant to realize that.
Never mess with Alaska, they can make you disappear. Look what happened to Mayor Begich's dad and Hale Boggs. They never even found the plane ! =8-0
"I have written off the Florida senate seat. Harris might have a chance in a strong Pubbie year. 2006 will not be a strong Pubbie year. And there you have it."
You're more optimistic on her chances than I'd be. She could've won this seat as an unknown quantity pre-2000, but not anymore... not even if this was 1994 or 1980.
Do you think we ENJOY pointing out that Harris, given her heroic holding-like-a-stonewall against the liberal media hordes in 2000, CANNOT win this Senate race ?
YES
The only ones proclaiming a Jeb defeat as imminent were the liberal media and hard-core Democrat partisans. Any polling data indicating such an incredible lead for McBride were highly suspicious. You'll notice, too, that I'd never claim that the 20-25% margin that Nelson leads by would turn out that way in the general... that's why I say she is no more than actually 10% behind Nelson. And she'll probably stay that way until election day.
"With the pubbies coming together, Nelson's liberal voting record will be exposed and Harris will gain in the polls."
Again, do you understand that ideology isn't the problem in this race ? It's the CANDIDATE. If ideology were the problem, Jeb would also similarly be down 20%+ in the same polls, he's not... he's 10% ahead of Nelson.
"Harris can win and all the hand wringing about her negatives, or her being controversial, is nonsense, and serves as a sad commentary on the lack of optimism that should define Conservatives."
No one has produced ANY substantive evidence or proof she CAN win. Unless you're prepared to make Nelson the anti-Christ and make his negatives even higher than Harris's sky-high negs, there is no way she will overcome the deficit. I always thought that what defines Conservatives is dealing with the REALITY of situations and not believing, as liberals do, that being behind 25% in the polls means you will WIN.
Of course she can win.
YES
Well, then you're dead wrong. Sadly, you don't even attempt to argue my points. C'mon, guys, we can't ever afford to tie ourselves to one particular candidate that is a loser, the Conservative movement in Florida is a lot bigger than Katherine Harris. Jeb, Brogan, Crist, Gallagher... we've got TONS of qualified people who can get into this race and WIN ! But, please, let's keep that Mark Foley out of it.
"Of course she can win."
I am bowled over by your argument. Cite some evidence to support this position. Some of us actually spend time analyzing election data, demographics, and polling data to support our conclusions.
"She basically inspires giggles when she enters a room. That's who the FL GOP wants to go with? Fine. It's a loser, and most folks can see that."
Your name fits you.
It may normally be too early for the polls to count, but she probably has better name recognition than Nelson. She needs to get the "Cruella DeVille" smashed and smashed good. I have no idea how to do that.
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